DWWWD
2-1
Finished
HT0-1
LLLLW
📍 Stadion Neman, Grodno
Cross-referencing our proprietary match analytics — form, H2H, key metrics, streaks, and tactical reads — with 16+ prediction portals, live odds, and team news to deliver a single-pane-of-glass briefing built for serious football analysts.
Tactical readModal scoreline 3-1 at 6.4% anchors the distribution.
Tactical readExpected margin +1.91; ladder cover probs follow the matrix.
Tactical readExpected total goals 5.12; distribution centred on the modal bin.
Tactical readBTTS quadrant: both 79%, only-home 19%, only-away 2%, none 1%.
Each bar is the model's chance of that card total — the last bar is that count or more. Bars right of the marked line are Over, left are Under.
The model's high probability for a Neman win aligns perfectly with the qualitative analysis. Neman's robust home form, coupled with Belshina's abysmal away record and offensive struggles, makes a straightforward home victory the most logical outcome. Given Belshina's inability to score on the road, a Neman win to nil looks very much on the cards.
Neman to win with a clean sheet: They have kept a clean sheet in 70% of their last 10 matches across all competitions, and Belshina have failed to score in their last 5 away matches.
Under 2.5 goals: While Neman score well at home, Belshina's 0.40 goals per game (EWMA) and Neman's 0.84 goals conceded per game (EWMA) suggest a dominant but potentially not a goal-fest performance from the hosts, especially if they win comfortably early.
Neman creates significantly more quality chances than Belshina, nearly tripling their opponent's expected goals per game. This highlights Neman's offensive prowess and Belshina's struggles to generate meaningful attacks.
Neman are undefeated in their last 10 matches across all competitions, with 5 wins and 5 draws.
Neman have won 6 of their last 10 Premier League matches at home, drawing 3 and losing only 1.
Belshina have lost 7 of their last 10 matches across all competitions, winning just 2 and drawing 1.
Belshina have failed to win any of their last 10 Premier League away matches, drawing 1 and losing 9.
Neman are coming into this match in formidable shape, especially at home. Their last 7 home matches across all competitions show 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with an impressive 16 goals scored and only 3 conceded. This includes solid Premier League victories like the 3-1 over Naftan and 2-0 against FC Vitebsk. Their underlying numbers are strong, creating 1.53 xG per game while conceding just 0.96 xG, resulting in a healthy 0.53 xG difference. The midfield pairing of A. Suchkov and Victorien Angban will be crucial in controlling the tempo and launching attacks. In stark contrast, Belshina are in dire straits. They've lost 5 of their last 6 matches across all leagues, including their last 5 away games with just 2 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their league away form is even worse, showing 0 wins and 9 losses in their last 10. Their EWMA stats highlight their struggles, with a meager 0.48 xG created per game and a concerning 1.69 xG conceded. The head-to-head also favors Neman, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, including a 3-1 victory in their last encounter.
Neman Grodno's offense is boosted by players like A. Suchkov, who has been a key midfielder, capable of creating chances and contributing to the attack. Victorien Angban is also a significant presence in the midfield, providing both defensive cover and initiating offensive plays. These players are crucial for Neman's strategy in this match.
Neman Grodno's offense is boosted by players like A. Suchkov, who has been a key midfielder, capable of creating chances and contributing to the attack. Victorien Angban is also a significant presence in the midfield, providing both defensive cover and initiating offensive plays. These players are crucial for Neman's strategy in this match.
Belshina's key players for this match are not explicitly mentioned in the provided search results.
Neman Grodno is predicted to win the match with a probability of 69%.
Neman Grodno has shown solid form at home, winning 4 of their last 7 matches, indicating a strong advantage when playing on familiar ground.
Neman will be looking to solidify their European push as they host a struggling Belshina side seemingly in freefall, particularly on their travels. This fixture appears to be a classic case of a strong home contender meeting a team desperately battling relegation.Neman are heavily favored to continue their dominant home form.
The bookmaker implied probability for a Neman win is around 82.6% based on an average odd of 1.21. After accounting for Neman's exceptional home form (60% win rate in last 10 league home matches, 2.1 PPG), Belshina's abysmal away form (0 wins, 9 losses in last 10 league away matches, 0.1 PPG), and their inability to score on the road, we adjust our confidence in a Neman win slightly higher, while reducing the probability of a draw given Belshina's desperate need for points but severe lack of quality.
Neman Grodno are currently 3rd in the Vysshaya Liga, actively competing for a strong league finish and a potential European qualification spot. Securing three points at home against a struggling opponent is crucial for their ambitions.
Belshina Bobruisk sit 14th in the Vysshaya Liga, squarely in a relegation battle. Every point is vital in their fight to avoid the drop or a relegation playoff spot, making this match a desperate quest for any positive result.
This report updates automatically as new information becomes available. Probabilities and analytics may shift based on team news, injuries, lineups and other pre-match developments.
Neman's defense is much tighter, conceding well under 1 xG per game, while Belshina is much more vulnerable at the back. This gap points to Neman's defensive solidity and Belshina's struggles to prevent scoring opportunities.
The net xG reflects Neman's overall dominance, creating far more than they concede, resulting in a strong positive difference. Belshina's negative difference indicates they consistently lose the xG battle, signifying a fundamental weakness.
Neman scores more than three times as many goals per game as Belshina, indicating a stark contrast in offensive output. This suggests Neman is far more likely to find the back of the net.
Neman concedes significantly fewer goals, showcasing their defensive strength compared to Belshina, who are more prone to letting in goals. This strengthens the case for a low-scoring game from Belshina's perspective.
Belshina averages more yellow cards per game than Neman, potentially reflecting their struggles and desperation in matches. This could lead to more fouls and card incidents for the away side.
Belshina Bobruisk has struggled recently, suffering 5 defeats in their last 6 matches across all leagues, highlighting their poor current form.
The weather forecast for 21.1°C and sunny conditions with a mild 11.2 km/h wind means there is no significant weather impact expected for this match. These conditions are ideal for play and will not influence goal totals or card counts in any meaningful way.