DLDDL
2-2
Finished
HT1-0
DDLDL
📍 Stade Francis Le Basser, Laval
Cross-referencing our proprietary match analytics — form, H2H, key metrics, streaks, and tactical reads — with 16+ prediction portals, live odds, and team news to deliver a single-pane-of-glass briefing built for serious football analysts.
Each bar is the model's chance of that corner total — the last bar is that count or more. Bars right of the marked line are Over, left are Under.
Each bar is the model's chance of that card total — the last bar is that count or more. Bars right of the marked line are Over, left are Under.
While the model leans toward a 1-1 draw, the massive injury list for Guingamp-specifically missing four players to cruciate ligament tears and their defensive anchor Donatien Gomis-suggests Laval could finally snatch a result. However, Laval's inability to keep a clean sheet in 10 consecutive home league games makes a Guingamp goal likely through Louis Mafouta. The strongest angle lies in the cards market given the referee's high volume.
Over 4.5 cards is highly probable given referee G. Kubler averages 6.0 cards per game, 35% above the league average.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) has landed in 54% of Guingamp's last 10 away league matches and aligns with Laval's defensive struggles.
Guingamp generates significantly higher quality chances than the hosts, whose xG is nearly 70% below league average.
Laval's home form is the worst in the league, while Guingamp is a top-half performer on the road.
Laval is winless in their last 10 Ligue 2 matches at home (0W, 3D, 7L).
Guingamp has kept a clean sheet in 50% of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
Laval has conceded at least one goal in every Ligue 2 home match this season (12 games).
The statistical disparity at the Stade Francis Le Basser is glaring; Laval has failed to win any of their 12 Ligue 2 home matches this season (0W, 5D, 7L). Their 0.97 xG created per game is significantly below Guingamp's 1.45, reflecting a toothless attack that has managed just 8 goals at home all season. Guingamp arrives with a superior away PPG of 1.33 and recent clinical performances on the road, such as their 3-0 demolition of Nancy. However, Guingamp coach Stéphane Dumont must navigate a defensive nightmare with Donatien Gomis injured and midfield enforcer Kalidou Sidibé suspended. Laval manager Olivier Frapolli is expected to respond by deploying a more aggressive 4-3-3 formation, bolstered by the return of Sam Sanna to midfield to provide better service to Tidiam Gomis.
For Laval, Malik Samassa is a crucial presence in goal, often providing a solid foundation for the team. In defense, Yohan Tavares brings experience and leadership to the backline. Midfielder Sam Sanna is expected to return and will be key in controlling the tempo and distributing the ball. Upfront, players like Tidiam Gomis will be looked upon to provide attacking impetus.
For Laval, Malik Samassa is a crucial presence in goal, often providing a solid foundation for the team. In defense, Yohan Tavares brings experience and leadership to the backline. Midfielder Sam Sanna is expected to return and will be key in controlling the tempo and distributing the ball. Upfront, players like Tidiam Gomis will be looked upon to provide attacking impetus.
For Guingamp, Louis Mafouta is a prominent figure in attack, and his goal-scoring ability is vital for the team's success. Dylan Louiserre is an influential midfielder who contributes to both defense and attack. In defense, Donatien Gomis provides a strong presence and leadership.
Laval coach Olivier Frapolli has indicated a likely 4-3-3 formation for the match against Guingamp, aiming for more offensive players on the field.
Sam Sanna is expected to return to the starting lineup for Laval after serving a suspension, likely partnering with Thomas in midfield with Sellouki playing further forward.
Relegation-threatened Laval are still hunting for their first home win of the season as they host a Guingamp side decimated by a central-defensive injury crisis. While the hosts are desperate for points to escape the bottom three, the visitors are clinging to the edge of the promotion playoff race.
The model's away win probability of 46.5% is slightly reduced due to the critical absences of Guingamp's defensive anchor Donatien Gomis (injury) and midfield enforcer Kalidou Sidibé (suspension), which will weaken their defensive structure. This shifts some probability towards a draw and a slight increase for Laval's win probability, especially with Laval's high motivation and a more offensive formation. However, Guingamp's overall superior quality and attacking threat still make them favorites.
Currently sitting 17th with only 19 points, every match is a cup final for Laval to avoid the drop to National.
Guingamp sits 10th and needs a victory to close the gap on the top five and reignite their promotion playoff ambitions.
This report updates automatically as new information becomes available. Probabilities and analytics may shift based on team news, injuries, lineups and other pre-match developments.
Guingamp scores more than double the goals per match away than Laval manages at home.
Laval concedes a high volume of set pieces, which may be exploited by Guingamp's height.
Guingamp shows much better technical control, which should help them dictate tempo despite playing away.
Guingamp is predicted to secure a narrow 0-1 victory, with a low-scoring game expected due to both teams' recent form and defensive discipline.
The atmosphere for this Ligue 2 match is anticipated to be tense, with Laval fighting to escape the relegation zone and Guingamp aiming to reignite their promotion playoff hopes.
Conditions are 12C and cloudy with minimal wind (6 km/h), meaning weather will not be a factor in ball flight or pitch speed. No impact on total goals or corner markets is expected due to the stable 10% rain probability.