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Match Intelligence
Home Favored
Updated 23h ago
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Everton look to capitalize on their recent 3-2 thriller against Newcastle as they host a decimated Burnley side fighting for Premier League survival. While the visitors are desperate for points, their league-worst defensive metrics and a massive injury list make this a daunting trip to Goodison Park.
Home Motivation
Medium
Currently 9th with 37 points, Everton are comfortably mid-table but need to improve their home record to secure a top-half finish for the fans.
Away Motivation
High
Sitting 19th with only 19 points, Burnley are in the thick of a relegation battle where every match is effectively a cup final for survival.
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
1.16
Goals conceded per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.78
Everton's defense is significantly more stable, conceding 35% fewer goals per game than Burnley.
1.5
Points Per Game (PPG)
League only (last 10)
0.7
In their last 10 Premier League matches, Everton have more than doubled the points production of Burnley.
3.6
Shots on target against
All comps (EWMA)
3.4
Burnley allow over 5 shots on target per game, putting immense pressure on their goalkeeper.
10%
Clean sheet %
All comps (last 10)
0%
Burnley's inability to shut out opponents across all competitions is a major liability.
1.19
xG conceded per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.29
Everton consistently limit high-quality chances better than the visitors.
Form & Streaks
Everton have secured 4 wins and 3 draws in their last 10 Premier League matches.
Burnley have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
Burnley have lost 5 of their last 10 Premier League matches, winning only once.
Tactical Overview
Everton enter this clash with renewed confidence following a vital 3-2 away win at Newcastle, though their home form remains a concern with six losses in their last ten Premier League matches at Goodison. Manager David Moyes will rely on Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to pull the strings in midfield, especially with Charly Alcaraz sidelined for three to four weeks. Burnley are in a dire state, sitting 19th and failing to keep a single clean sheet in their last ten matches across all competitions. Their recent 3-4 home loss to Brentford highlighted a backline that has conceded 33 goals in 14 away league games this season. While Lyle Foster returns to the squad, the absence of Josh Cullen and Zeki Amdouni leaves the Clarets tactically vulnerable against the physical threat of Beto. Expect Everton to dominate territory, as Burnley have averaged 5.32 shots on target against per game, which is significantly higher than the league average.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
Jordan Pickford is a vital presence in goal for Everton, consistently providing strong performances and leadership from the back. Midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is crucial to Everton's playmaking, having recently returned from injury and showing good form in orchestrating attacks. Upfront, Beto provides a physical threat and is expected to lead the line for the Toffees in this important match.
Absences
Jack Grealish
foot surgery, out for the season
Charly Alcaraz
knock injury, expected to be out for 3-4 weeks
Mark Travers
damaged finger
Home
Key Players
Jordan Pickford is a vital presence in goal for Everton, consistently providing strong performances and leadership from the back. Midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is crucial to Everton's playmaking, having recently returned from injury and showing good form in orchestrating attacks. Upfront, Beto provides a physical threat and is expected to lead the line for the Toffees in this important match.
Absences
Jack Grealish
foot surgery, out for the season
Charly Alcaraz
knock injury, expected to be out for 3-4 weeks
Mark Travers
damaged finger
Away
Key Players
Burnley will rely on Jaidon Anthony for attacking impetus, as he has been in good scoring form. In midfield, Zian Flemming is a key figure, contributing to both goal-scoring and creative play. Defensively, the experience of Joe Worrall will be important in organizing the backline and providing leadership against Everton's attack.
Absences
Axel Tuanzebe
Achilles tendon injury
Mike Tresor Ndayishimiye
ankle injury
Josh Cullen
cruciate ligament tear
Jordan Beyer
hamstring injury
Connor Roberts
Achilles tendon problems
Zeki Amdouni
cruciate ligament tear
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Referee Profile
T. Robinson
7 matches officiated · 2025/26
Cards/G
4.7
▲
avg 3.9
Fouls/G
23.0
▲
avg 21.5
Pen Rate
0.14
NormalT. Robinson is a strict official, averaging 4.72 cards per game across 7 Premier League matches this season, which is 20.4% higher than the league average. His tendency to award 23.0 fouls per game suggests a stop-start match that favors a high card count, especially given Burnley's 2.14 yellow cards per game average.
Key Note
Tim Robinson has awarded one penalty in the Premier League this season.
Weather & Pitch
Good Conditions
8C, overcast
Temperature
8°C
Rain Chance
0%
Wind
7.2 km/h
Humidity
84%
Conditions are overcast with a mild temperature of 8°C and light winds at 7.2 km/h. These conditions will have no impact on the technical quality of play or the expected goal count. The alert level is officially set to no_impact for betting markets.
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