WWLLW
3-0
Finished
HT3-0
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📍 UD Almeria Stadium, Almeria
Stats below use each team's main league —
Segunda DivisiónSpain·Primera División RFEF - Group 2Spain
Stats below use each team's main league —Segunda DivisiónSpain·Primera División RFEF - Group 2Spain
Cross-referencing our proprietary match analytics — form, H2H, key metrics, streaks, and tactical reads — with 16+ prediction portals, live odds, and team news to deliver a single-pane-of-glass briefing built for serious football analysts.
The model probabilities heavily favor Almeria at 71% win probability, aligning with their commanding home record and superior statistical profile in recent matches. Eldense's well-documented struggles away from home, where they concede heavily and offer little threat on target, makes them vulnerable against a strong Almeria side. The over 2.5 goals market also presents an angle, given Almeria's high-scoring home games and Eldense's tendency to be involved in open contests.
Almeria are heavily favored due to an 80% win rate in their last 10 league home matches, while Eldense have won just 40% of their last 10 league away games, indicating a significant home advantage.
Almeria's shot-on-target average of 5.24 per game in recent form is significantly higher than Eldense's 2.00, suggesting a much greater attacking threat that should translate to scoring opportunities at home.
Both teams score at a similar rate on recent form (1.70 vs 1.75), but context suggests Almeria's home attacking output is more potent given their venue form.
Almeria have won 8 of their last 10 league home matches.
Eldense have lost 6 of their last 10 away matches across all competitions.
Almeria have a 50% win rate in their last 10 league matches overall.
Eldense have a 30% win rate in their last 10 league matches overall.
Almeria enters this Segunda División clash as strong favorites, bolstered by their dominant home form. They have secured 8 wins in their last 10 league home matches, a stark contrast to Eldense's away struggles, where they've managed only 4 wins in their last 10 league away fixtures. Almeria's offensive metrics are impressive, averaging 1.70 goals per game on a recent-form basis and landing 5.24 shots on target per game, well above Eldense's 2.00. Defensively, Almeria concedes 1.49 goals per game in recent form, a more solid record than Eldense's 1.18 conceded per game, though xG data is unavailable for Eldense. Despite Eldense claiming a 2-1 victory in their last encounter, Almeria's superior league standing (11th vs 20th) and overwhelming statistical advantage at home, especially with key midfielders like Sergio Arribas and Adrián Embarba, along with striker Léo Baptistão, suggest a significant uphill battle for Eldense and their forwards such as Manuel Nieto.
For Almeria, attacking midfielder Sergio Arribas is expected to be a crucial player, known for his ability to create chances and contribute to goals. Adrián Embarba, another midfielder, is also anticipated to play a significant role with his playmaking abilities. Striker Léo Baptistão is a key presence in attack, expected to lead the line and provide a goal threat.
For Almeria, attacking midfielder Sergio Arribas is expected to be a crucial player, known for his ability to create chances and contribute to goals. Adrián Embarba, another midfielder, is also anticipated to play a significant role with his playmaking abilities. Striker Léo Baptistão is a key presence in attack, expected to lead the line and provide a goal threat.
Eldense will likely rely on striker Manuel Nieto to be a focal point in their attack, providing a consistent goal threat. Midfielder Fidel is another important player, known for his influence in the midfield and ability to dictate play. Defender Aridane Hernández is expected to anchor the defense, bringing experience and stability to the backline.
Second-tier Almeria host struggling Eldense in a fixture where the form book and recent data overwhelmingly point towards a home victory. Eldense's perilous away record is starkly contrasted by Almeria's formidable home advantage, setting the stage for a clear disparity in expected performance.
The bookmaker odds imply a 72.7% home win probability, which is very close to our baseline. Given Almeria's dominant home form and strong recent statistics, we are holding a slightly higher adjusted probability for them than the market consensus.
This report updates automatically as new information becomes available. Probabilities and analytics may shift based on team news, injuries, lineups and other pre-match developments.
Eldense boast a superior recent-form goals conceded average (1.18) compared to Almeria's 1.49, indicating a tighter defense on paper.
Almeria create significantly more dangerous chances, landing 5.24 shots on target per game compared to Eldense's 2.00, showing a clear attacking advantage.
Almeria are far more clinical with their chances, converting 36% of their shots on target compared to Eldense's 20%.
Almeria's overwhelming 80% win rate at home in their last 10 league venue matches contrasts sharply with Eldense's 40% win rate away, highlighting the home team's dominance.
Almeria win more than double the corners per game (4.23 vs 2.00) in recent form, signalling greater territorial dominance and attacking pressure.