LWLDD
2-1
Finished
HT1-1
DWDDL
Stats below use each team's main league —
Eerste DivisieNetherlands
Stats below use each team's main league —Eerste DivisieNetherlands
Cross-referencing our proprietary match analytics — form, H2H, key metrics, streaks, and tactical reads — with 16+ prediction portals, live odds, and team news to deliver a single-pane-of-glass briefing built for serious football analysts.
Tactical readModal scoreline 1-1 at 12.8% anchors the distribution.
Tactical readWhile the market is heavily weighted toward a home win (≈56%), the tactical reality of Cambuur's squad overhaul suggests a more balanced 35-27-38 split. Roda's consistency in away fixtures, losing only 1 of their last 10, creates a strong distribution of probability mass across the X2 outcomes in this exhibition setting.
Tactical readWhile the market is heavily weighted toward a home win (≈56%), the tactical reality of Cambuur's squad overhaul suggests a more balanced 35-27-38 split. Roda's consistency in away fixtures, losing only 1 of their last 10, creates a strong distribution of probability mass across the X2 outcomes in this exhibition setting.
Tactical readMarket pricing at -0.5 for the home side assumes a dominance that isn't supported by Cambuur's sequence of only 3 wins in their last 10 outings. The value distribution shifts toward the visitor with a +0.5 cushion, as Roda's 52% possession and 1.67 xG created per game provide a stable floor for a result.
Tactical readThe shape of the totals market is driven by Cambuur's defensive fragility, trending at 1.47 goals conceded per game in recent form. With an 80% BTTS rate in their last 10 matches, the probability mass for total goals is skewed toward the higher ends of the distribution, making the 'Under' less likely than historical season averages.
Tactical readThe frequency of both teams finding the net is exceptionally high for the home side, occurring in 8 of their last 10 matches at their venue. Combined with Roda's 1.37 goals scored per game on a recent-form basis, the likelihood of a clean sheet for either side is statistically lower than the league baseline.
Each bar is the model's chance of that corner total — the last bar is that count or more. Bars right of the marked line are Over, left are Under.
Tactical readExpect a relatively high volume of set-pieces, as Cambuur won 6.22 corners per game in recent matches while Roda conceded 6.26 on average. The distribution is likely to cluster between 9 and 11 total corners given the attacking intent shown by both sides in recent exhibition play.
Each bar is the model's chance of that card total — the last bar is that count or more. Bars right of the marked line are Over, left are Under.
Tactical readThe cards market is expected to stay lean, typical for July friendlies. With a recent-form average of just 1.75 yellows for Cambuur and 1.49 for Roda, and the lack of competitive stakes, the probability of exceeding the 3.5 line is significantly diminished compared to a league encounter.
The model's lean toward a Cambuur victory (35%) likely overestimates their historical home strength while underestimating the impact of their recent squad overhaul. Insider buzz and recent performance data strongly favor a Roda Double Chance (X2) outcome, as the visitors have maintained their core while Cambuur has struggled defensively in recent friendlies. With Cambuur showing an 55% BTTS rate in their last 10 matches, expect a competitive game where Roda's superior xG creation eventually tells.
Roda to Win or Draw (Double Chance) as Cambuur has failed to win 5 of their last 6 matches and lost key offensive threat Remco Balk.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) looks likely given Cambuur's 55% BTTS rate over their last 10 matches and a recent-form goals conceded average of 1.47.
Roda shows a higher creative output in recent matches, providing more consistent scoring opportunities than the hosts.
Roda's net performance is significantly higher, suggesting they control match quality better than Cambuur in recent form.
Cambuur has failed to secure a victory in 5 of their last 6 matches across all competitions.
Roda is undefeated in 9 of their last 10 matches away from home (5W, 4D, 1L).
3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings between these sides have ended in a draw.
Cambuur enters this friendly in questionable form, having failed to secure a win in five of their last six outings, including a recent 2-3 defeat to Excelsior where they trailed 0-3 by the second half. New manager Johan Plat is navigating a squad depleted by the departures of Remco Balk and Toni Jonker, placing heavy responsibility on Jort van der Sande and Mark Diemers to generate offense. Conversely, Roda appears the more complete unit, trending at a recent-form xG of 1.67 per game, significantly higher than Cambuur's 1.32. Historically, these sides are well-matched, with three draws in their last five meetings, but Roda's defensive organization and active goalkeeping from Justin Treichel give them a structural edge. In their last 10 away matches across all competitions, Roda has proven incredibly difficult to beat, losing only once while securing five victories.
Cambuur will rely on their available key players to navigate through this friendly. While specific standout players for this match are not detailed, the team has recently seen departures, which could influence their lineup.
Cambuur will rely on their available key players to navigate through this friendly. While specific standout players for this match are not detailed, the team has recently seen departures, which could influence their lineup.
Roda appears to be a more prepared squad for this season, having retained their core players. Their midfield is known for its tenacious play, and their defense is well-organized.
The Cambuur manager, Johan Plat, who has been coach since July 1, 2026, is facing a team currently in a rather questionable form.
Roda consistently manages to take points from Cambuur, and given the current form of the players, the X2 outcome (Roda to win or draw) seems the safest bet.
A transitional Cambuur side under new management faces a stern test against a stable Roda unit that has retained its core strength. While the hosts are searching for rhythm following significant roster exits, the visitors enter this exhibition with the tactical continuity to dominate.
The market prices the home win at 1.79 (≈56% implied), but this appears to overlook the significant departures of Remco Balk and Toni Jonker alongside a recent-form average of 1.47 goals conceded. We adjust the picture toward the away side, whose stable core and trending 1.67 xG created per game suggest a much more competitive split than the odds-implied probability.
As this is an exhibition friendly match, Cambuur's motivation level is low, as there are no competition stakes at play.
As this is an exhibition friendly match, Roda's motivation level is low, as there are no competition stakes at play.
This report updates automatically as new information becomes available. Probabilities and analytics may shift based on team news, injuries, lineups and other pre-match developments.
Justin Treichel has been more active and effective, which could be the difference-maker in a tight friendly context.
Cambuur averages over 6 corners per game on a recent-form basis, suggesting they maintain pressure even when results are poor.
Cambuur matches consistently see both sides scoring, making clean sheets rare for Johan Plat's side.
Roda has been the more efficient side at collecting points over their last 10 matches across all competitions.
The facts all point to a clear advantage for the visitors at this moment, with Cambuur losing players and unable to secure wins in most of their recent outings, while Roda appears as the more complete unit.
Cambuur has failed to secure victories in five out of their last six matches, with their recent friendly against Excelsior ending in a 2-3 defeat, where the scoreboard read 0-3 by midway through the second half.
Roda has retained its core players and put up a solid performance in their friendly against a strong Vitesse.