WWWWW
3-1
Finished
HT2-0
LDDWD
📍 Hampden Park, Glasgow
Stats below use each team's main league —
PremiershipScotland·ChampionshipScotland
Stats below use each team's main league —PremiershipScotland·ChampionshipScotland
Cross-referencing our proprietary match analytics — form, H2H, key metrics, streaks, and tactical reads — with 16+ prediction portals, live odds, and team news to deliver a single-pane-of-glass briefing built for serious football analysts.
Tactical readThe match result market strongly favors Celtic, with an implied win probability around 85%. While both teams have high motivation, Celtic's superior quality and the absence of key attacking players for Dunfermline consolidate this strong home lean. The draw outcome holds minimal probability, given the clear quality disparity.
Tactical readThe match result market strongly favors Celtic, with an implied win probability around 85%. While both teams have high motivation, Celtic's superior quality and the absence of key attacking players for Dunfermline consolidate this strong home lean. The draw outcome holds minimal probability, given the clear quality disparity.
Tactical readThe Asian Handicap market reflects Celtic as significant favorites, with lines like Celtic -2.5 becoming relevant. The distribution suggests strong confidence in Celtic winning by at least a two-goal margin, with potential for a wider victory. Dunfermline's handicap lines offer a large cushion, but their offensive limitations make even covering those difficult if Celtic performs as expected.
Tactical readThe goals market points towards an Over 2.5 outcome being highly likely, driven primarily by Celtic's strong scoring form. Despite Dunfermline's defensive solidity in recent form, their inability to contribute goals themselves means the total goals distribution is heavily reliant on Celtic's offensive output, leaning towards higher totals from one side.
Tactical readThe Both Teams to Score market is heavily weighted towards 'No', with Dunfermline's significant attacking injuries to G. Carey and Z. Rudden making it difficult for them to breach Celtic's defense. The implied probability for 'No' reflects the expectation of a clean sheet for the home favorites, consistent with Dunfermline's recent scoring struggles.
Celtic's drive for a domestic double, coupled with their superior form and quality, makes them strong favorites. While Dunfermline's journey has been impressive, their key absences, including G. Carey and Z. Rudden, will severely hamper their already anemic attack. The model's 2-0 prediction for Celtic seems a reasonable baseline, but expect Martin O'Neill's side to push for a more comfortable win, particularly with Daizen Maeda in excellent scoring touch and Callum McGregor dictating play from midfield.
Celtic to score Over 2.5 goals. Dunfermline's recent form shows a very low 65% Over 2.5 rate, but they are facing a significantly stronger attack than usual.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) NO. Celtic has a BTTS % of 68% in their last 10 all comps, but Dunfermline's corresponding rate is just 30%. Given Dunfermline's struggle for goals and key attacking injuries, is likely to keep a clean sheet.
Celtic generates more attacking opportunities on a recent-form basis (2.02 xG) compared to Dunfermline (1.87 xG). This indicates Celtic's ability to fashion higher quality chances.
Celtic has won 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions (9W,0D,1L in 10).
Celtic has an impressive home record, with 8 wins from their last 10 matches at their venue (8W,0D,2L in 10).
Dunfermline has won only 2 of their last 10 matches across all competitions (2W,5D,3L in 10).
Dunfermline has only managed 3 wins in their last 10 away matches (3W,3D,4L in 10).
Celtic comes into this final in formidable touch, winning 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions, including dominant home victories like their 3-1 over Rangers and a 6-2 rout of St. Mirren in the FA Cup. They've been a scoring machine, trending at 2.04 goals per game on a recent-form basis, well above the league average of 3.17. While their xG created at 2.02 per game is respectable, it does sit below the league average of 3.89, suggesting some clinical finishing has buoyed their goal tally. In contrast, Dunfermline has struggled for consistent form, with only 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses in their last 10 outings, scoring a mere 7 goals in that period. Their xG conceded per game is an incredibly low 0.19 on a recent-form basis, which significantly skews their xG difference to a high 1.67, but their actual goals conceded at 0.17 per game reflects this defensive solidity. However, their struggles to score, with a recent-form average of 1.57 goals per game, will be a major concern against a top-tier opponent. Head-to-head history heavily favors Celtic, who have won all four recent encounters, albeit the most recent was six years ago.
Celtic will look to Daizen Maeda for his attacking prowess, as he has been in excellent scoring form recently. In midfield, captain Callum McGregor is expected to anchor the team and dictate play. Defensively, Liam Scales and Auston Trusty are anticipated to form a crucial partnership at the back.
Celtic will look to Daizen Maeda for his attacking prowess, as he has been in excellent scoring form recently. In midfield, captain Callum McGregor is expected to anchor the team and dictate play. Defensively, Liam Scales and Auston Trusty are anticipated to form a crucial partnership at the back.
Dunfermline's attack will likely feature C. Kane, who has scored multiple goals in this cup run. A. Oxborough is expected to be in goal after his return to the squad. In the midfield, C. Gilmour and A. Amade will be important in orchestrating play.
The Celtic manager, Martin O'Neill, expressed the team's determination for a double, stating, 'It would be fantastic if we could do it.'
Kieran Tierney emphasized the squad's motivation, saying, 'When I came back here, one of the things I got asked was what my ambitions were, and it was to keep Celtic successful.'
The Scottish FA Cup Final pits Premiership champions Celtic against Championship hopefuls Dunfermline in a classic David vs. Goliath clash, with Celtic chasing a domestic double and Dunfermline dreaming of a monumental upset and European qualification.
Celtic's win probability, priced at ~1.17 (≈85.5% implied) by bookmakers, is well-supported and slightly undervalued, as Dunfermline's key attacking injuries to G. Carey and Z. Rudden, coupled with their already low scoring rate (0.7 goals per game in last 10), significantly reduce their chances of scoring. This shifts the overall goal expectation slightly higher for Celtic and lower for Dunfermline, increasing the likelihood of a clean sheet and a larger home win margin. The 'both sides high motivation' rule dictates a slight increase to Over/BTTS, but the overwhelming injury and form differential strongly points to BTTS No.
Celtic is highly motivated to win the Scottish Cup final as it represents an opportunity to complete a domestic double, having already secured the Scottish Premiership title.
Dunfermline is highly motivated as they are playing in the FA Cup final, an opportunity to win their first Scottish Cup since 1968 and qualify for European competition.
This report updates automatically as new information becomes available. Probabilities and analytics may shift based on team news, injuries, lineups and other pre-match developments.
Celtic outscores Dunfermline significantly on a recent-form basis, averaging 2.04 goals per game to their opponent's 1.57 goals. This demonstrates Celtic's superior firepower in front of goal.
While Dunfermline's recent-form goals conceded (0.17 per game) is remarkably low compared to Celtic's 1.27, this figure is likely inflated by playing against lower-tier opposition and may not hold up against a strong Premiership attack in a cup final.
Dunfermline actually edges out Celtic in recent-form corners won per game (7.00 vs 6.05), suggesting they can generate attacking pressure, even if it doesn't always convert into goals.
Celtic dominates possession with 59% in recent matches, compared to Dunfermline's 48%. This control of the ball will allow Celtic to dictate the tempo and style of the final.
Celtic averages significantly more yellow cards per game (2.51) than Dunfermline (1.00) in recent form. This difference could indicate Celtic's more aggressive style or perhaps Dunfermline's disciplined approach, which might be tested in a high-stakes final.
Neil Lennon also stated, 'They're fallible and they have weaknesses. Hopefully we can capitalise on that.' regarding Celtic's potential vulnerabilities.
Dunfermline's path to the final included defeating three top-flight sides, showcasing their ability to perform against stronger opposition.
Celtic ultras are planning a tifo display for the Scottish Cup final to foster unity and inspire the team.
With the wind at 18 km/h and gusts up to 34 km/h, conditions will be breezy, potentially affecting long passes and set-pieces, though it falls short of the 25km/h threshold typically needed for significant betting market impact. The 17.4°C temperature and low rain probability mean no impact is expected on pitch quality or player performance. Bettors should not consider weather a major factor for goal or card markets here.