FA Cup·
1/128-finals·11/01/2025·13:30
Brackley Town
Brackley Town
LDDWD
2-2
Penalties
HT1-1PEN4-3
Notts County
Notts County
WDWWW
📍 St James Park, Brackley

Stats below use each team's main league —National LeagueEngland·League TwoEngland

Last 10FA Cup
Town10matchesCounty10matches

Not in either team's main domestic league — every panel below reflects each team's most recent matches across all competitions.

Coverage varies by leaguetop-tier competitions have richer per-match data; lower divisions and smaller leagues track fewer metrics, so some panels may be sparse or missing entirely.
Pre-match snapshotevery value reflects each team's state going into kick-off — frozen before the match starts, not updated live.

Overall

Overallteam-strength snapshot
44%
Overall

Composite team strength — average of LTQ and Hype.

71%
1482
ELO

Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.

1436
48%
LTQ

Long-term quality across all competitions.

61%
39%
Hype

Short-term fixture buzz / excitement signal.

80%
1.94
Momentum

Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).

2.68

Match Outcome

Match Outcomeresults breakdown
1010
1.20
Points per Game

Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).

1.90
30%
Win Rate

Share of sampled matches won.

60%
30%
Draw Rate

Share of sampled matches that ended level.

10%
40%
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

30%
30%
Clean Sheet35%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

40%
50%
Failed to Score

Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).

20%

Goal Scoring

Goal Scoringattacking output
1010
1.00
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.60
50%
Scored > 0.565%

Share of matches where the team scored at least once.

80%
60%
Over 1.565%

Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.

70%
10%
Over 2.535%

Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.

60%
10%
Over 3.520%

Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.

30%
30%
BTTS35%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

40%
10%
BTTS & Win

Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.

20%
10%
Scored Both Halves25%

Share of matches with a goal in both the 1st and 2nd half.

40%

Defensive Solidity

Defensive Soliditygoals & shots conceded
1010
1.10
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.00
Avg Shots Conceded

Total shots faced per match — defensive pressure (> 17.5/match is heavy siege).

11.10
0/10
Avg SoT Conceded

Shots on target faced per match — quality of chances given up (> 5.5 is severe).

3.70
0/10
Avg Saves

Goalkeeper saves per match (> 4.5 means the keeper is doing heavy lifting).

2.80
0/10
Save %

Share of opponent shots on target stopped by the keeper.

76%
0/10
30%
Clean Sheet35%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

40%

xG Trends

xG TrendsEWMA-smoothed performance
1010
1.06
EWMAxG For

Smoothed expected goals created per match — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.

1.13
0.81
EWMAxG Against

Smoothed expected goals conceded per match — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.

0.80
0.24
EWMAxG Diff

Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.

0.33
0.18
EWMAFinishing Edge

Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.

0.42
EWMAxG per Shot

Average chance quality per attempt — 0.10 is mid, 0.15+ means the team only shoots from dangerous spots.

0.10

Shots Quality

Shots Qualityvolume & accuracy
1010
Avg Shots

Total shots per match — pure attacking volume (> 16.5/match is elite).

11.20
0/10
Avg Shots on Target

Shots on target per match — strikes the keeper had to handle (> 5.5/match is heavy).

5.00
0/10
Avg Shots in Box

Shots taken from inside the penalty area — proximity to goal (> 8.5/match means consistent box presence).

7.20
0/10
Box Shot %

Share of shots taken from inside the box — chance-selection quality. Mid sits ~60%, elite > 75%.

64%
0/10
On-Target %

Share of shots that hit the target — striking accuracy. Mid ~33%, elite > 40%.

45%
0/10
Shot Conversion

Goals per shot taken — clinical efficiency. ~10% is league average, > 15% is elite finishing.

14%
0/10

Possession & Passing

Possession & Passingball control
1010
Avg Possession

Share of match time with the ball. > 55% is dominant, < 40% is reactive.

55%
0/10
Pass Accuracy

Share of passes completed — distribution quality. Mid sits ~80%, elite > 88%.

76%
0/10
Avg Passes

Total passes attempted per match — distribution volume. Top sides > 550, bottom sides < 400.

438.20
0/10
EWMAPossession Trend

Smoothed possession differential — team minus opponent. ±0.1 is normal, ±0.2 is strong dominance.

0.14

HT / FT Patterns

HT / FT Patternshalf-time vs full-time outcomes
1010
20%2/10
Leading at HT25%

Share of matches the team led at halftime — fast-start signal.

30%3/10
70%7/10
Level at HT

Share of matches level at halftime — balanced or low-tempo openings.

60%6/10
10%1/10
Trailing at HT

Share of matches the team trailed at halftime — slow starts (lower is better).

10%1/10
40%4/10
HT/FT Same Outcome45%

Share of matches where the W/D/L state at halftime matched the full-time result — game-state stability.

50%5/10
50%1/2
Led at HT → Won75%

Of matches led at HT, share converted into a full-time win — closing strength.

100%3/3
0%0/1
Trailed at HT → Recovered0%

Of matches trailing at HT, share rescued to a draw or win — comeback resilience.

0%0/1

Goal Timing

Goal Timingwhen goals happen
events 10/1010/101010
20%
0-15'17%

Hot starts — share of the team's goals scored in the opening 15 minutes.

13%
20%
16-30'13%

Early control — share scored between the 16th and 30th minute.

7%
0%
31-45'7%

Pre-HT push — share scored in the run-up to halftime.

13%
0%
46-60'7%

Restart wave — share scored in the first 15 minutes after HT.

13%
20%
61-75'23%

Game-state shift — share scored between minutes 61 and 75.

27%
40%
76-90+'33%

Late-game finishers — share scored from the 76th minute onwards (incl. stoppage time).

27%

First-Goal Edge

First-Goal Edgewho strikes first
events 10/1010/101010
44%4/9
Scored First52%

Share of matches where the team opened the scoring — fast-start signal.

60%6/10
56%5/9
Conceded First

Share of matches where the team conceded the opening goal (lower is better).

40%4/10
50%2/4
Win when Scoring First67%

Of matches the team scored first, share converted into a win — closing strength after the opener.

83%5/6
20%1/5
Win when Conceding First23%

Of matches conceding first, share rescued into a win — comeback strength.

25%1/4
48'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Scored

Average minute of the team's first goal — earlier means faster starters.

44'
48'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Conceded

Average minute of the first goal conceded — later is better (defense holds longer).

17'

Late-Game Strength

Late-Game Strengthafter the 75th minute
events 10/1010/101010
30%3/10
Scored after 75'35%

Share of matches with a late goal scored by the team — late finishers signal.

40%4/10
40%4/10
Conceded after 75'

Share of matches the team conceded a late goal — late-game vulnerability (lower is better).

30%3/10
100%2/2
Lead Saved after 75'88%

Of matches leading at 75', share closed out for a win — closing strength.

75%3/4
0%0/2
Lead Lost after 75'

Of matches leading at 75', share dropped to a draw or loss — late-game collapse risk.

25%1/4
10%1/10
Any Goal in Stoppage Time

Share of matches with any goal in stoppage time (90+) — late-drama frequency.

0%0/10

Set Pieces

Set Piecespenalty / own-goal share
events 10/1010/101010
100%10/10
Open-Play Share100%

Of the team's scored goals, share from open play — non-set-piece scoring quality.

100%15/15
0%0/10
Penalty Share

Of the team's scored goals, share from penalty kicks — penalty dependency.

0%0/15
0%0/10
Opp Own-Goal Bonus

Of the team's scored goals, share that were opponent own-goals — pressure / fortune.

0%0/15
0%0/11
Penalty Conceded Share

Of conceded goals, share from opponent penalties — defensive discipline (lower is better).

9%1/11
0%0/11
Own-Goal Cost

Of conceded goals, share that were the team's own goals — pressure-induced errors (lower is better).

9%1/11

Corners

Cornersset-piece pressure
1010
Avg Corners For

Average corners won per match — attacking territorial pressure (> 5.5 is heavy).

4.10
0/10
Avg Corners Against

Average corners conceded per match — territorial pressure faced (lower is better).

5.00
0/10
Corner Share

Share of total corners in the team's matches that went to the team — territorial dominance ratio.

45%
0/10
EWMACorners Diff

Smoothed corner differential per match — long-term territorial advantage (±2 is strong).

-0.95
0/0
Match Corners > 8.5

Share of matches with total corners > 8.5 (Over 8.5 line) — high-tempo encounter signal.

50%5/10
0/10
0/0
Match Corners > 9.5

Share of matches with total corners > 9.5 (Over 9.5 line).

50%5/10
0/10
0/0
Match Corners > 10.5

Share of matches with total corners > 10.5 (Over 10.5 line) — corner-heavy clashes only.

50%5/10
0/10

Cards & Discipline

Cards & Disciplineyellows, reds & fouls
events 10/1010/101010
Avg Yellow Cards

Yellow cards picked up per match — discipline signal (lower is better).

1.90
0/10
0/0
Red Card Match Rate

Share of matches with at least one red card to the team — sending-off risk.

0%0/10
0/10
Avg Fouls

Fouls committed per match — aggression / tactical-foul tendency (lower is calmer).

12.70
0/10
71%5/7
Match Cards > 3.586%

Share of matches with total card points (both teams, yellow=1 / red=2, 2Y→R counted as 2) > 3.5 — Over 3.5 line.

100%7/7
7/107/10
43%3/7
Match Cards > 4.550%

Share of matches with total card points > 4.5 — Over 4.5 line.

57%4/7
7/107/10
67%
Cards in 2nd Half

Share of card events that occur after halftime — late-discipline tendency.

73%

Venue Edge

Venue EdgeTown at home · County on the road
65
1.83
PPG at Venue

Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.

0.80
50%3/6
Win Rate35%

Share of sampled matches won.

20%1/5
17%1/6
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

60%3/5
1.50
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

0.80
0.83
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.60
50%3/6
Clean Sheet35%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

20%1/5
33%2/6
BTTS37%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

40%2/5
17%1/6
Over 2.538%

Share of venue matches with total goals > 2.5.

60%3/5
1.36
EWMAAttack xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG created at venue — long-term attacking strength in this fixture's venue context.

0.68
0.58
EWMADefense xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG conceded at venue — defensive strength in this fixture's venue context (lower is better).

0.97