Composite team strength — average of LTQ and Hype.

Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.

Long-term quality across all competitions.

Short-term fixture buzz / excitement signal.

Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).

Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).

Share of sampled matches won.

Share of sampled matches that ended level.

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

Share of matches where the team scored at least once.

Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.

Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.

Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.

Share of matches where both teams scored.

Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

Smoothed expected goals created per match — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.

Smoothed expected goals conceded per match — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.

Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.

Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.

Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

Smoothed xG created at venue — long-term attacking strength in this fixture's venue context.

Smoothed xG conceded at venue — defensive strength in this fixture's venue context (lower is better).