FAW Championship·
North - 6·09/06/2025·09:30
Caersws
Caersws
LLLWL
1-3
Finished
HT1-1
Holywell
Holywell
WWWWW
📍 The Recreation Ground, Caersws, Powys
Last 10FAW Championship
Caersws10matchesHolywell10matches

Season just started — only a handful of league matches played so far. Every panel below reflects each team's most recent matches across all competitions.

Coverage varies by leaguetop-tier competitions have richer per-match data; lower divisions and smaller leagues track fewer metrics, so some panels may be sparse or missing entirely.
Pre-match snapshotevery value reflects each team's state going into kick-off — frozen before the match starts, not updated live.

Overall

Overallteam-strength snapshot
26%
Overall

Composite team strength — average of LTQ and Hype.

84%
1361
ELO

Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.

1582
36%
LTQ

Long-term quality across all competitions.

72%
15%
Hype

Short-term fixture buzz / excitement signal.

96%
3.10
Momentum

Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).

3.31

Match Outcome

Match Outcomeresults breakdown
1010
0.90
Points per Game

Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).

2.00
30%
Win Rate

Share of sampled matches won.

60%
0%
Draw Rate

Share of sampled matches that ended level.

20%
70%
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

20%
10%
Clean Sheet15%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

20%
20%
Failed to Score

Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).

20%

Goal Scoring

Goal Scoringattacking output
1010
1.50
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.80
80%
Scored > 0.580%

Share of matches where the team scored at least once.

80%
100%
Over 1.590%

Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.

80%
80%
Over 2.570%

Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.

60%
40%
Over 3.530%

Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.

20%
70%
BTTS70%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

70%
20%
BTTS & Win

Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.

50%
40%
Scored Both Halves45%

Share of matches with a goal in both the 1st and 2nd half.

50%

Defensive Solidity

Defensive Soliditygoals & shots conceded
1010
2.10
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.00
10%
Clean Sheet15%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

20%

xG Trends

xG TrendsEWMA-smoothed performance
1010
1.63
EWMAxG For

Smoothed expected goals created per match — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.

2.37
2.51
EWMAxG Against

Smoothed expected goals conceded per match — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.

1.16
-0.88
EWMAxG Diff

Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.

1.21
-0.22
EWMAFinishing Edge

Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.

-0.46

HT / FT Patterns

HT / FT Patternshalf-time vs full-time outcomes
1010
30%3/10
Leading at HT40%

Share of matches the team led at halftime — fast-start signal.

50%5/10
20%2/10
Level at HT

Share of matches level at halftime — balanced or low-tempo openings.

30%3/10
50%5/10
Trailing at HT

Share of matches the team trailed at halftime — slow starts (lower is better).

20%2/10
80%8/10
HT/FT Same Outcome85%

Share of matches where the W/D/L state at halftime matched the full-time result — game-state stability.

90%9/10
100%3/3
Led at HT → Won100%

Of matches led at HT, share converted into a full-time win — closing strength.

100%5/5
0%0/5
Trailed at HT → Recovered0%

Of matches trailing at HT, share rescued to a draw or win — comeback resilience.

0%0/2

Goal Timing

Goal Timingwhen goals happen
events 9/109/101010
13%
0-15'15%

Hot starts — share of the team's goals scored in the opening 15 minutes.

16%
0%
16-30'8%

Early control — share scored between the 16th and 30th minute.

16%
27%
31-45'21%

Pre-HT push — share scored in the run-up to halftime.

16%
7%
46-60'9%

Restart wave — share scored in the first 15 minutes after HT.

11%
13%
61-75'17%

Game-state shift — share scored between minutes 61 and 75.

21%
40%
76-90+'31%

Late-game finishers — share scored from the 76th minute onwards (incl. stoppage time).

21%

First-Goal Edge

First-Goal Edgewho strikes first
events 9/109/101010
44%4/9
Scored First50%

Share of matches where the team opened the scoring — fast-start signal.

56%5/9
56%5/9
Conceded First

Share of matches where the team conceded the opening goal (lower is better).

44%4/9
75%3/4
Win when Scoring First78%

Of matches the team scored first, share converted into a win — closing strength after the opener.

80%4/5
0%0/5
Win when Conceding First25%

Of matches conceding first, share rescued into a win — comeback strength.

50%2/4
30'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Scored

Average minute of the team's first goal — earlier means faster starters.

22'
31'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Conceded

Average minute of the first goal conceded — later is better (defense holds longer).

21'

Late-Game Strength

Late-Game Strengthafter the 75th minute
events 9/109/101010
67%6/9
Scored after 75'56%

Share of matches with a late goal scored by the team — late finishers signal.

44%4/9
33%3/9
Conceded after 75'

Share of matches the team conceded a late goal — late-game vulnerability (lower is better).

22%2/9
100%1/1
Lead Saved after 75'100%

Of matches leading at 75', share closed out for a win — closing strength.

100%6/6
0%0/1
Lead Lost after 75'

Of matches leading at 75', share dropped to a draw or loss — late-game collapse risk.

0%0/6
22%2/9
Any Goal in Stoppage Time

Share of matches with any goal in stoppage time (90+) — late-drama frequency.

11%1/9

Set Pieces

Set Piecespenalty / own-goal share
events 9/109/101010
87%13/15
Open-Play Share91%

Of the team's scored goals, share from open play — non-set-piece scoring quality.

95%18/19
7%1/15
Penalty Share

Of the team's scored goals, share from penalty kicks — penalty dependency.

0%0/19
7%1/15
Opp Own-Goal Bonus

Of the team's scored goals, share that were opponent own-goals — pressure / fortune.

5%1/19
6%1/18
Penalty Conceded Share

Of conceded goals, share from opponent penalties — defensive discipline (lower is better).

0%0/9
0%0/18
Own-Goal Cost

Of conceded goals, share that were the team's own goals — pressure-induced errors (lower is better).

0%0/9

Cards & Discipline

Cards & Disciplineyellows, reds & fouls
events 9/109/101010
100%1/1
Match Cards > 3.5

Share of matches with total card points (both teams, yellow=1 / red=2, 2Y→R counted as 2) > 3.5 — Over 3.5 line.

0/0
1/100/10
0%0/1
Match Cards > 4.5

Share of matches with total card points > 4.5 — Over 4.5 line.

0/0
1/100/10
0%
Cards in 2nd Half

Share of card events that occur after halftime — late-discipline tendency.

Venue Edge

Venue EdgeCaersws at home · Holywell on the road
35
1.00
PPG at Venue

Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.

2.00
33%1/3
Win Rate47%

Share of sampled matches won.

60%3/5
67%2/3
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

20%1/5
1.33
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.40
1.67
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.00
33%1/3
Clean Sheet27%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

20%1/5
33%1/3
BTTS57%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

80%4/5
33%1/3
Over 2.547%

Share of venue matches with total goals > 2.5.

60%3/5
2.20
EWMAAttack xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG created at venue — long-term attacking strength in this fixture's venue context.

1.73
1.94
EWMADefense xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG conceded at venue — defensive strength in this fixture's venue context (lower is better).

1.57