WLWLW
1-0
Finished
HT0-0
WWLDD
📍 St James Park, Exeter
Every panel below reflects each team's matches in League One.
Overall strength: long-term quality and current form combined, adjusted for opponent and league quality.
Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.
Long-term quality: league- and opponent-adjusted performance over the last 20 matches, comparable across leagues.
Current form: league- and opponent-adjusted performance over the last 10 matches, newest weighted heaviest.
Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).
Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).
Share of sampled matches won.
Share of sampled matches that ended level.
Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).
Share of matches with no goals conceded.
Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).
Aggregated community signal
Consensus across 16+ football prediction portals — confidence, pick distribution and herd indicators on every market.
Goals scored per match across the sampled games.
Share of matches where the team scored at least once.
Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.
Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.
Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.
Share of matches where both teams scored.
Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.
Share of matches with a goal in both the 1st and 2nd half.
Goals conceded per match (lower is better).
Total shots faced per match — defensive pressure (> 17.5/match is heavy siege).
Shots on target faced per match — quality of chances given up (> 5.5 is severe).
Goalkeeper saves per match (> 4.5 means the keeper is doing heavy lifting).
Share of opponent shots on target stopped by the keeper.
Share of matches with no goals conceded.
City: xG in 4 of 22 matches
Luton: xG in 5 of 23 matches
Expected goals created per match, recency-weighted over the selected matches — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.
Expected goals conceded per match, recency-weighted over the selected matches — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.
Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.
Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.
Average chance quality per attempt — 0.10 is mid, 0.15+ means the team only shoots from dangerous spots.
Win probabilities, statistical angles, fair vs market odds and a tactical breakdown for this match.
Total shots per match — pure attacking volume (> 16.5/match is elite).
Shots on target per match — strikes the keeper had to handle (> 5.5/match is heavy).
Shots taken from inside the penalty area — proximity to goal (> 8.5/match means consistent box presence).
Share of shots taken from inside the box — chance-selection quality. Mid sits ~60%, elite > 75%.
Share of shots that hit the target — striking accuracy. Mid ~33%, elite > 40%.
Goals per shot taken — clinical efficiency. ~10% is league average, > 15% is elite finishing.
Share of match time with the ball. > 55% is dominant, < 40% is reactive.
Share of passes completed — distribution quality. Mid sits ~80%, elite > 88%.
Total passes attempted per match — distribution volume. Top sides > 550, bottom sides < 400.
Possession differential, recency-weighted over the selected matches — team minus opponent. ±0.1 is normal, ±0.2 is strong dominance.
Share of matches the team led at halftime — fast-start signal.
Share of matches level at halftime — balanced or low-tempo openings.
Share of matches the team trailed at halftime — slow starts (lower is better).
Share of matches where the W/D/L state at halftime matched the full-time result — game-state stability.
Of matches led at HT, share converted into a full-time win — closing strength.
Of matches trailing at HT, share rescued to a draw or win — comeback resilience.
Hot starts — share of the team's goals scored in the opening 15 minutes.
Early control — share scored between the 16th and 30th minute.
Pre-HT push — share scored in the run-up to halftime.
Restart wave — share scored in the first 15 minutes after HT.
Game-state shift — share scored between minutes 61 and 75.
Late-game finishers — share scored from the 76th minute onwards (incl. stoppage time).
Share of matches where the team opened the scoring — fast-start signal.
Share of matches where the team conceded the opening goal (lower is better).
Of matches the team scored first, share converted into a win — closing strength after the opener.
Of matches conceding first, share rescued into a win — comeback strength.
Average minute of the team's first goal — earlier means faster starters.
Average minute of the first goal conceded — later is better (defense holds longer).
Share of matches with a late goal scored by the team — late finishers signal.
Share of matches the team conceded a late goal — late-game vulnerability (lower is better).
Of matches leading at 75', share closed out for a win — closing strength.
Of matches leading at 75', share dropped to a draw or loss — late-game collapse risk.
Share of matches with any goal in stoppage time (90+) — late-drama frequency.
Model probabilities next to bookmaker odds on every market, highlighted where they differ — 1X2, O/U, BTTS, handicaps, corners & cards.
Of the team's scored goals, share from open play — non-set-piece scoring quality.
Of the team's scored goals, share from penalty kicks — penalty dependency.
Of the team's scored goals, share that were opponent own-goals — pressure / fortune.
Of conceded goals, share from opponent penalties — defensive discipline (lower is better).
Of conceded goals, share that were the team's own goals — pressure-induced errors (lower is better).
Average corners won per match — attacking territorial pressure (> 5.5 is heavy).
Average corners conceded per match — territorial pressure faced (lower is better).
Share of total corners in the team's matches that went to the team — territorial dominance ratio.
Recency-weighted corner differential per match over the selected matches (±2 is strong).
Share of matches with total corners > 8.5 (Over 8.5 line) — high-tempo encounter signal.
Share of matches with total corners > 9.5 (Over 9.5 line).
Share of matches with total corners > 10.5 (Over 10.5 line) — corner-heavy clashes only.
Yellow cards picked up per match — discipline signal (lower is better).
Share of matches with at least one red card to the team — sending-off risk.
Fouls committed per match — aggression / tactical-foul tendency (lower is calmer).
Share of matches with total card points (both teams, yellow=1 / red=2, 2Y→R counted as 2) > 3.5 — Over 3.5 line.
Share of matches with total card points > 4.5 — Over 4.5 line.
Share of card events that occur after halftime — late-discipline tendency.
Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.
Share of sampled matches won.
Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).
Goals scored per match across the sampled games.
Goals conceded per match (lower is better).
Share of matches with no goals conceded.
Share of matches where both teams scored.
Share of venue matches with total goals > 2.5.
City: xG in 0 of 10 matches
Luton: xG in 1 of 11 matches
xG created per match at the venue, recency-weighted over the selected matches.
xG conceded per match at the venue, recency-weighted over the selected matches (lower is better).