Championship·
Regular Season - 46·05/02/2026·07:30
Watford
Watford
LLLLD
0-4
Finished
HT0-2
Coventry
Coventry
WWDDD
📍 Vicarage Road, Watford
Season statsChampionship
Watford45matchesCoventry45matches

Every panel below reflects each team's matches in Championship.

Coverage varies by leaguetop-tier competitions have richer per-match data; lower divisions and smaller leagues track fewer metrics, so some panels may be sparse or missing entirely.
Pre-match snapshotevery value reflects each team's state going into kick-off — frozen before the match starts, not updated live.

Overall

Overallteam-strength snapshot
18%
Overall

Composite team strength — average of LTQ and Hype.

71%
1413
ELO

Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.

1540
30%
LTQ

Long-term quality across all competitions.

69%
5%
Hype

Short-term fixture buzz / excitement signal.

72%
2.94
Momentum

Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).

3.03

Match Outcome

Match Outcomeresults breakdown
4545
1.27
Points per Game

Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).

2.04
31%
Win Rate

Share of sampled matches won.

60%
33%
Draw Rate

Share of sampled matches that ended level.

24%
36%
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

16%
16%
Clean Sheet26%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

36%
29%
Failed to Score

Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).

16%

Goal Scoring

Goal Scoringattacking output
4545
1.18
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

2.07
71%
Scored > 0.578%

Share of matches where the team scored at least once.

84%
80%
Over 1.581%

Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.

82%
47%
Over 2.554%

Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.

62%
22%
Over 3.529%

Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.

36%
60%
BTTS60%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

60%
20%
BTTS & Win

Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.

36%
18%
Scored Both Halves29%

Share of matches with a goal in both the 1st and 2nd half.

40%

Defensive Solidity

Defensive Soliditygoals & shots conceded
4545
1.36
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.00
11.60
Avg Shots Conceded

Total shots faced per match — defensive pressure (> 17.5/match is heavy siege).

11.60
4.02
Avg SoT Conceded

Shots on target faced per match — quality of chances given up (> 5.5 is severe).

3.64
2.71
Avg Saves

Goalkeeper saves per match (> 4.5 means the keeper is doing heavy lifting).

2.69
67%
Save %71%

Share of opponent shots on target stopped by the keeper.

74%
16%
Clean Sheet26%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

36%

xG Trends

xG TrendsEWMA-smoothed performance
4545
1.07
EWMAxG For

Smoothed expected goals created per match — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.

1.89
1.44
EWMAxG Against

Smoothed expected goals conceded per match — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.

1.07
-0.36
EWMAxG Diff

Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.

0.82
-0.14
EWMAFinishing Edge

Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.

0.08
0.08
EWMAxG per Shot

Average chance quality per attempt — 0.10 is mid, 0.15+ means the team only shoots from dangerous spots.

0.12

Shots Quality

Shots Qualityvolume & accuracy
4545
13.91
Avg Shots

Total shots per match — pure attacking volume (> 16.5/match is elite).

16.24
4.44
Avg Shots on Target

Shots on target per match — strikes the keeper had to handle (> 5.5/match is heavy).

5.53
7.93
Avg Shots in Box

Shots taken from inside the penalty area — proximity to goal (> 8.5/match means consistent box presence).

11.56
57%
Box Shot %64%

Share of shots taken from inside the box — chance-selection quality. Mid sits ~60%, elite > 75%.

71%
32%
On-Target %33%

Share of shots that hit the target — striking accuracy. Mid ~33%, elite > 40%.

34%
8%
Shot Conversion11%

Goals per shot taken — clinical efficiency. ~10% is league average, > 15% is elite finishing.

13%

Possession & Passing

Possession & Passingball control
4545
51%
Avg Possession

Share of match time with the ball. > 55% is dominant, < 40% is reactive.

55%
80%
Pass Accuracy

Share of passes completed — distribution quality. Mid sits ~80%, elite > 88%.

80%
415.20
Avg Passes

Total passes attempted per match — distribution volume. Top sides > 550, bottom sides < 400.

437.00
0.03
EWMAPossession Trend

Smoothed possession differential — team minus opponent. ±0.1 is normal, ±0.2 is strong dominance.

0.15

HT / FT Patterns

HT / FT Patternshalf-time vs full-time outcomes
4545
18%8/45
Leading at HT31%

Share of matches the team led at halftime — fast-start signal.

44%20/45
47%21/45
Level at HT

Share of matches level at halftime — balanced or low-tempo openings.

42%19/45
36%16/45
Trailing at HT

Share of matches the team trailed at halftime — slow starts (lower is better).

13%6/45
53%24/45
HT/FT Same Outcome53%

Share of matches where the W/D/L state at halftime matched the full-time result — game-state stability.

53%24/45
75%6/8
Led at HT → Won75%

Of matches led at HT, share converted into a full-time win — closing strength.

75%15/20
44%7/16
Trailed at HT → Recovered55%

Of matches trailing at HT, share rescued to a draw or win — comeback resilience.

67%4/6

Goal Timing

Goal Timingwhen goals happen
events 45/4545/454545
11%
0-15'14%

Hot starts — share of the team's goals scored in the opening 15 minutes.

16%
11%
16-30'11%

Early control — share scored between the 16th and 30th minute.

10%
20%
31-45'21%

Pre-HT push — share scored in the run-up to halftime.

22%
15%
46-60'16%

Restart wave — share scored in the first 15 minutes after HT.

18%
17%
61-75'14%

Game-state shift — share scored between minutes 61 and 75.

11%
26%
76-90+'25%

Late-game finishers — share scored from the 76th minute onwards (incl. stoppage time).

23%

First-Goal Edge

First-Goal Edgewho strikes first
events 45/4545/454545
30%13/43
Scored First50%

Share of matches where the team opened the scoring — fast-start signal.

70%28/40
70%30/43
Conceded First

Share of matches where the team conceded the opening goal (lower is better).

30%12/40
69%9/13
Win when Scoring First74%

Of matches the team scored first, share converted into a win — closing strength after the opener.

79%22/28
17%5/30
Win when Conceding First29%

Of matches conceding first, share rescued into a win — comeback strength.

42%5/12
25'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Scored

Average minute of the team's first goal — earlier means faster starters.

25'
34'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Conceded

Average minute of the first goal conceded — later is better (defense holds longer).

35'

Late-Game Strength

Late-Game Strengthafter the 75th minute
events 45/4545/454545
29%13/45
Scored after 75'34%

Share of matches with a late goal scored by the team — late finishers signal.

40%18/45
24%11/45
Conceded after 75'

Share of matches the team conceded a late goal — late-game vulnerability (lower is better).

20%9/45
75%9/12
Lead Saved after 75'85%

Of matches leading at 75', share closed out for a win — closing strength.

95%19/20
25%3/12
Lead Lost after 75'

Of matches leading at 75', share dropped to a draw or loss — late-game collapse risk.

5%1/20
0%0/45
Any Goal in Stoppage Time

Share of matches with any goal in stoppage time (90+) — late-drama frequency.

0%0/45

Set Pieces

Set Piecespenalty / own-goal share
events 45/4545/454545
94%51/54
Open-Play Share94%

Of the team's scored goals, share from open play — non-set-piece scoring quality.

93%85/91
4%2/54
Penalty Share

Of the team's scored goals, share from penalty kicks — penalty dependency.

5%5/91
2%1/54
Opp Own-Goal Bonus

Of the team's scored goals, share that were opponent own-goals — pressure / fortune.

1%1/91
2%1/61
Penalty Conceded Share

Of conceded goals, share from opponent penalties — defensive discipline (lower is better).

6%3/47
2%1/61
Own-Goal Cost

Of conceded goals, share that were the team's own goals — pressure-induced errors (lower is better).

6%3/47

Corners

Cornersset-piece pressure
4545
5.02
Avg Corners For

Average corners won per match — attacking territorial pressure (> 5.5 is heavy).

5.29
5.16
Avg Corners Against

Average corners conceded per match — territorial pressure faced (lower is better).

4.29
49%
Corner Share52%

Share of total corners in the team's matches that went to the team — territorial dominance ratio.

55%
0.49
EWMACorners Diff

Smoothed corner differential per match — long-term territorial advantage (±2 is strong).

1.57
64%29/45
Match Corners > 8.567%

Share of matches with total corners > 8.5 (Over 8.5 line) — high-tempo encounter signal.

69%31/45
58%26/45
Match Corners > 9.550%

Share of matches with total corners > 9.5 (Over 9.5 line).

42%19/45
51%23/45
Match Corners > 10.542%

Share of matches with total corners > 10.5 (Over 10.5 line) — corner-heavy clashes only.

33%15/45

Cards & Discipline

Cards & Disciplineyellows, reds & fouls
events 45/4545/454545
2.09
Avg Yellow Cards

Yellow cards picked up per match — discipline signal (lower is better).

1.51
7%3/45
Red Card Match Rate

Share of matches with at least one red card to the team — sending-off risk.

7%3/45
10.96
Avg Fouls

Fouls committed per match — aggression / tactical-foul tendency (lower is calmer).

9.40
78%32/41
Match Cards > 3.577%

Share of matches with total card points (both teams, yellow=1 / red=2, 2Y→R counted as 2) > 3.5 — Over 3.5 line.

76%28/37
41/4537/45
54%22/41
Match Cards > 4.544%

Share of matches with total card points > 4.5 — Over 4.5 line.

35%13/37
41/4537/45
70%
Cards in 2nd Half

Share of card events that occur after halftime — late-discipline tendency.

64%

Venue Edge

Venue EdgeWatford at home · Coventry on the road
2222
1.68
PPG at Venue

Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.

1.68
45%10/22
Win Rate45%

Share of sampled matches won.

45%10/22
23%5/22
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

23%5/22
1.36
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.91
1.05
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.18
23%5/22
Clean Sheet30%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

36%8/22
55%12/22
BTTS57%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

59%13/22
41%9/22
Over 2.550%

Share of venue matches with total goals > 2.5.

59%13/22
1.29
EWMAAttack xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG created at venue — long-term attacking strength in this fixture's venue context.

1.37
1.18
EWMADefense xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG conceded at venue — defensive strength in this fixture's venue context (lower is better).

1.18