Championship·
Regular Season - 37·03/10/2026·15:45
Millwall
Millwall
WWWLW
1-0
Finished
HT1-0
Derby
Derby
WWLLW
📍 The Den, London
Season statsChampionship
Millwall36matchesDerby36matches

Every panel below reflects each team's matches in Championship.

Coverage varies by leaguetop-tier competitions have richer per-match data; lower divisions and smaller leagues track fewer metrics, so some panels may be sparse or missing entirely.
Pre-match snapshotevery value reflects each team's state going into kick-off — frozen before the match starts, not updated live.

Overall

Overallteam-strength snapshot
81%
Overall

Composite team strength — average of LTQ and Hype.

54%
1525
ELO

Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.

1484
70%
LTQ

Long-term quality across all competitions.

54%
91%
Hype

Short-term fixture buzz / excitement signal.

54%
2.96
Momentum

Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).

3.35

Match Outcome

Match Outcomeresults breakdown
3636
1.81
Points per Game

Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).

1.50
53%
Win Rate

Share of sampled matches won.

42%
22%
Draw Rate

Share of sampled matches that ended level.

25%
25%
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

33%
39%
Clean Sheet31%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

22%
19%
Failed to Score

Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).

8%

Goal Scoring

Goal Scoringattacking output
3636
1.39
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.50
81%
Scored > 0.586%

Share of matches where the team scored at least once.

92%
81%
Over 1.581%

Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.

81%
50%
Over 2.551%

Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.

53%
25%
Over 3.525%

Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.

25%
47%
BTTS58%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

69%
19%
BTTS & Win

Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.

19%
22%
Scored Both Halves22%

Share of matches with a goal in both the 1st and 2nd half.

22%

Defensive Solidity

Defensive Soliditygoals & shots conceded
3636
1.14
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.31
12.22
Avg Shots Conceded

Total shots faced per match — defensive pressure (> 17.5/match is heavy siege).

12.28
4.11
Avg SoT Conceded

Shots on target faced per match — quality of chances given up (> 5.5 is severe).

4.00
2.94
Avg Saves

Goalkeeper saves per match (> 4.5 means the keeper is doing heavy lifting).

2.89
72%
Save %72%

Share of opponent shots on target stopped by the keeper.

72%
39%
Clean Sheet31%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

22%

xG Trends

xG TrendsEWMA-smoothed performance
3636
1.52
EWMAxG For

Smoothed expected goals created per match — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.

1.42
1.25
EWMAxG Against

Smoothed expected goals conceded per match — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.

1.00
0.27
EWMAxG Diff

Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.

0.42
0.18
EWMAFinishing Edge

Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.

0.24
0.12
EWMAxG per Shot

Average chance quality per attempt — 0.10 is mid, 0.15+ means the team only shoots from dangerous spots.

0.12

Shots Quality

Shots Qualityvolume & accuracy
3636
12.75
Avg Shots

Total shots per match — pure attacking volume (> 16.5/match is elite).

10.33
4.22
Avg Shots on Target

Shots on target per match — strikes the keeper had to handle (> 5.5/match is heavy).

3.47
8.78
Avg Shots in Box

Shots taken from inside the penalty area — proximity to goal (> 8.5/match means consistent box presence).

7.08
69%
Box Shot %69%

Share of shots taken from inside the box — chance-selection quality. Mid sits ~60%, elite > 75%.

69%
33%
On-Target %33%

Share of shots that hit the target — striking accuracy. Mid ~33%, elite > 40%.

34%
11%
Shot Conversion13%

Goals per shot taken — clinical efficiency. ~10% is league average, > 15% is elite finishing.

15%

Possession & Passing

Possession & Passingball control
3636
47%
Avg Possession

Share of match time with the ball. > 55% is dominant, < 40% is reactive.

44%
70%
Pass Accuracy

Share of passes completed — distribution quality. Mid sits ~80%, elite > 88%.

73%
342.67
Avg Passes

Total passes attempted per match — distribution volume. Top sides > 550, bottom sides < 400.

332.42
-0.05
EWMAPossession Trend

Smoothed possession differential — team minus opponent. ±0.1 is normal, ±0.2 is strong dominance.

-0.09

HT / FT Patterns

HT / FT Patternshalf-time vs full-time outcomes
3636
31%11/36
Leading at HT33%

Share of matches the team led at halftime — fast-start signal.

36%13/36
53%19/36
Level at HT

Share of matches level at halftime — balanced or low-tempo openings.

36%13/36
17%6/36
Trailing at HT

Share of matches the team trailed at halftime — slow starts (lower is better).

28%10/36
64%23/36
HT/FT Same Outcome58%

Share of matches where the W/D/L state at halftime matched the full-time result — game-state stability.

53%19/36
100%11/11
Led at HT → Won85%

Of matches led at HT, share converted into a full-time win — closing strength.

69%9/13
17%1/6
Trailed at HT → Recovered28%

Of matches trailing at HT, share rescued to a draw or win — comeback resilience.

40%4/10

Goal Timing

Goal Timingwhen goals happen
events 36/3636/363636
8%
0-15'12%

Hot starts — share of the team's goals scored in the opening 15 minutes.

15%
15%
16-30'13%

Early control — share scored between the 16th and 30th minute.

11%
17%
31-45'19%

Pre-HT push — share scored in the run-up to halftime.

20%
10%
46-60'15%

Restart wave — share scored in the first 15 minutes after HT.

20%
19%
61-75'19%

Game-state shift — share scored between minutes 61 and 75.

19%
31%
76-90+'23%

Late-game finishers — share scored from the 76th minute onwards (incl. stoppage time).

15%

First-Goal Edge

First-Goal Edgewho strikes first
events 36/3636/363636
47%16/34
Scored First53%

Share of matches where the team opened the scoring — fast-start signal.

58%21/36
53%18/34
Conceded First

Share of matches where the team conceded the opening goal (lower is better).

42%15/36
94%15/16
Win when Scoring First78%

Of matches the team scored first, share converted into a win — closing strength after the opener.

62%13/21
22%4/18
Win when Conceding First18%

Of matches conceding first, share rescued into a win — comeback strength.

13%2/15
34'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Scored

Average minute of the team's first goal — earlier means faster starters.

37'
33'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Conceded

Average minute of the first goal conceded — later is better (defense holds longer).

23'

Late-Game Strength

Late-Game Strengthafter the 75th minute
events 36/3636/363636
33%12/36
Scored after 75'28%

Share of matches with a late goal scored by the team — late finishers signal.

22%8/36
28%10/36
Conceded after 75'

Share of matches the team conceded a late goal — late-game vulnerability (lower is better).

31%11/36
86%12/14
Lead Saved after 75'75%

Of matches leading at 75', share closed out for a win — closing strength.

65%11/17
14%2/14
Lead Lost after 75'

Of matches leading at 75', share dropped to a draw or loss — late-game collapse risk.

35%6/17
0%0/36
Any Goal in Stoppage Time

Share of matches with any goal in stoppage time (90+) — late-drama frequency.

0%0/36

Set Pieces

Set Piecespenalty / own-goal share
events 36/3636/363636
96%46/48
Open-Play Share91%

Of the team's scored goals, share from open play — non-set-piece scoring quality.

87%47/54
0%0/48
Penalty Share

Of the team's scored goals, share from penalty kicks — penalty dependency.

7%4/54
4%2/48
Opp Own-Goal Bonus

Of the team's scored goals, share that were opponent own-goals — pressure / fortune.

6%3/54
2%1/43
Penalty Conceded Share

Of conceded goals, share from opponent penalties — defensive discipline (lower is better).

9%4/47
9%4/43
Own-Goal Cost

Of conceded goals, share that were the team's own goals — pressure-induced errors (lower is better).

6%3/47

Corners

Cornersset-piece pressure
3636
5.36
Avg Corners For

Average corners won per match — attacking territorial pressure (> 5.5 is heavy).

4.64
5.00
Avg Corners Against

Average corners conceded per match — territorial pressure faced (lower is better).

5.36
52%
Corner Share49%

Share of total corners in the team's matches that went to the team — territorial dominance ratio.

46%
0.87
EWMACorners Diff

Smoothed corner differential per match — long-term territorial advantage (±2 is strong).

-0.37
67%24/36
Match Corners > 8.561%

Share of matches with total corners > 8.5 (Over 8.5 line) — high-tempo encounter signal.

56%20/36
50%18/36
Match Corners > 9.550%

Share of matches with total corners > 9.5 (Over 9.5 line).

50%18/36
44%16/36
Match Corners > 10.542%

Share of matches with total corners > 10.5 (Over 10.5 line) — corner-heavy clashes only.

39%14/36

Cards & Discipline

Cards & Disciplineyellows, reds & fouls
events 36/3636/363636
1.97
Avg Yellow Cards

Yellow cards picked up per match — discipline signal (lower is better).

2.36
6%2/36
Red Card Match Rate

Share of matches with at least one red card to the team — sending-off risk.

8%3/36
13.08
Avg Fouls

Fouls committed per match — aggression / tactical-foul tendency (lower is calmer).

11.81
69%22/32
Match Cards > 3.571%

Share of matches with total card points (both teams, yellow=1 / red=2, 2Y→R counted as 2) > 3.5 — Over 3.5 line.

73%22/30
32/3630/36
34%11/32
Match Cards > 4.536%

Share of matches with total card points > 4.5 — Over 4.5 line.

37%11/30
32/3630/36
68%
Cards in 2nd Half

Share of card events that occur after halftime — late-discipline tendency.

69%

Venue Edge

Venue EdgeMillwall at home · Derby on the road
1817
1.83
PPG at Venue

Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.

1.59
56%10/18
Win Rate51%

Share of sampled matches won.

47%8/17
28%5/18
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

35%6/17
1.44
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.65
1.17
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.29
44%8/18
Clean Sheet34%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

24%4/17
39%7/18
BTTS52%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

65%11/17
56%10/18
Over 2.560%

Share of venue matches with total goals > 2.5.

65%11/17
1.43
EWMAAttack xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG created at venue — long-term attacking strength in this fixture's venue context.

1.40
0.94
EWMADefense xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG conceded at venue — defensive strength in this fixture's venue context (lower is better).

1.12