Championship·
Regular Season - 13·11/01/2025·11:00
Watford
Watford
LWLWD
3-0
Finished
HT2-0
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
DWWLD
📍 Vicarage Road, Watford
Season statsChampionship
Watford12matchesMiddlesbrough12matches

Every panel below reflects each team's matches in Championship.

Coverage varies by leaguetop-tier competitions have richer per-match data; lower divisions and smaller leagues track fewer metrics, so some panels may be sparse or missing entirely.
Pre-match snapshotevery value reflects each team's state going into kick-off — frozen before the match starts, not updated live.

Overall

Overallteam-strength snapshot
47%
Overall

Composite team strength — average of LTQ and Hype.

66%
1469
ELO

Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.

1560
47%
LTQ

Long-term quality across all competitions.

64%
47%
Hype

Short-term fixture buzz / excitement signal.

68%
2.83
Momentum

Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).

1.80

Match Outcome

Match Outcomeresults breakdown
1212
1.25
Points per Game

Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).

2.08
33%
Win Rate

Share of sampled matches won.

58%
25%
Draw Rate

Share of sampled matches that ended level.

33%
42%
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

8%
0%
Clean Sheet21%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

42%
33%
Failed to Score

Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).

17%

Goal Scoring

Goal Scoringattacking output
1212
1.17
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.33
67%
Scored > 0.575%

Share of matches where the team scored at least once.

83%
67%
Over 1.563%

Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.

58%
58%
Over 2.550%

Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.

42%
25%
Over 3.517%

Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.

8%
67%
BTTS58%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

50%
33%
BTTS & Win

Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.

25%
8%
Scored Both Halves13%

Share of matches with a goal in both the 1st and 2nd half.

17%

Defensive Solidity

Defensive Soliditygoals & shots conceded
1212
1.33
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

0.67
12.58
Avg Shots Conceded

Total shots faced per match — defensive pressure (> 17.5/match is heavy siege).

11.00
4.25
Avg SoT Conceded

Shots on target faced per match — quality of chances given up (> 5.5 is severe).

2.33
3.00
Avg Saves

Goalkeeper saves per match (> 4.5 means the keeper is doing heavy lifting).

1.58
71%
Save %69%

Share of opponent shots on target stopped by the keeper.

68%
0%
Clean Sheet21%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

42%

xG Trends

xG TrendsEWMA-smoothed performance
1212
1.38
EWMAxG For

Smoothed expected goals created per match — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.

1.11
1.26
EWMAxG Against

Smoothed expected goals conceded per match — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.

1.17
0.13
EWMAxG Diff

Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.

-0.07
-0.31
EWMAFinishing Edge

Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.

-0.00
0.10
EWMAxG per Shot

Average chance quality per attempt — 0.10 is mid, 0.15+ means the team only shoots from dangerous spots.

0.08

Shots Quality

Shots Qualityvolume & accuracy
1212
14.67
Avg Shots

Total shots per match — pure attacking volume (> 16.5/match is elite).

12.17
4.67
Avg Shots on Target

Shots on target per match — strikes the keeper had to handle (> 5.5/match is heavy).

3.92
8.25
Avg Shots in Box

Shots taken from inside the penalty area — proximity to goal (> 8.5/match means consistent box presence).

7.50
56%
Box Shot %59%

Share of shots taken from inside the box — chance-selection quality. Mid sits ~60%, elite > 75%.

62%
32%
On-Target %32%

Share of shots that hit the target — striking accuracy. Mid ~33%, elite > 40%.

32%
8%
Shot Conversion9%

Goals per shot taken — clinical efficiency. ~10% is league average, > 15% is elite finishing.

11%

Possession & Passing

Possession & Passingball control
1212
51%
Avg Possession

Share of match time with the ball. > 55% is dominant, < 40% is reactive.

52%
81%
Pass Accuracy

Share of passes completed — distribution quality. Mid sits ~80%, elite > 88%.

83%
398.00
Avg Passes

Total passes attempted per match — distribution volume. Top sides > 550, bottom sides < 400.

467.08
0.02
EWMAPossession Trend

Smoothed possession differential — team minus opponent. ±0.1 is normal, ±0.2 is strong dominance.

0.09

HT / FT Patterns

HT / FT Patternshalf-time vs full-time outcomes
1212
25%3/12
Leading at HT29%

Share of matches the team led at halftime — fast-start signal.

33%4/12
33%4/12
Level at HT

Share of matches level at halftime — balanced or low-tempo openings.

42%5/12
42%5/12
Trailing at HT

Share of matches the team trailed at halftime — slow starts (lower is better).

25%3/12
33%4/12
HT/FT Same Outcome46%

Share of matches where the W/D/L state at halftime matched the full-time result — game-state stability.

58%7/12
67%2/3
Led at HT → Won83%

Of matches led at HT, share converted into a full-time win — closing strength.

100%4/4
60%3/5
Trailed at HT → Recovered63%

Of matches trailing at HT, share rescued to a draw or win — comeback resilience.

67%2/3

Goal Timing

Goal Timingwhen goals happen
events 12/1212/121212
7%
0-15'7%

Hot starts — share of the team's goals scored in the opening 15 minutes.

7%
13%
16-30'10%

Early control — share scored between the 16th and 30th minute.

7%
27%
31-45'20%

Pre-HT push — share scored in the run-up to halftime.

13%
27%
46-60'23%

Restart wave — share scored in the first 15 minutes after HT.

20%
13%
61-75'17%

Game-state shift — share scored between minutes 61 and 75.

20%
13%
76-90+'23%

Late-game finishers — share scored from the 76th minute onwards (incl. stoppage time).

33%

First-Goal Edge

First-Goal Edgewho strikes first
events 12/1212/121212
25%3/12
Scored First40%

Share of matches where the team opened the scoring — fast-start signal.

55%6/11
75%9/12
Conceded First

Share of matches where the team conceded the opening goal (lower is better).

45%5/11
67%2/3
Win when Scoring First83%

Of matches the team scored first, share converted into a win — closing strength after the opener.

100%6/6
22%2/9
Win when Conceding First21%

Of matches conceding first, share rescued into a win — comeback strength.

20%1/5
19'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Scored

Average minute of the team's first goal — earlier means faster starters.

40'
31'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Conceded

Average minute of the first goal conceded — later is better (defense holds longer).

32'

Late-Game Strength

Late-Game Strengthafter the 75th minute
events 12/1212/121212
17%2/12
Scored after 75'25%

Share of matches with a late goal scored by the team — late finishers signal.

33%4/12
33%4/12
Conceded after 75'

Share of matches the team conceded a late goal — late-game vulnerability (lower is better).

33%4/12
60%3/5
Lead Saved after 75'80%

Of matches leading at 75', share closed out for a win — closing strength.

100%6/6
40%2/5
Lead Lost after 75'

Of matches leading at 75', share dropped to a draw or loss — late-game collapse risk.

0%0/6
0%0/12
Any Goal in Stoppage Time

Share of matches with any goal in stoppage time (90+) — late-drama frequency.

0%0/12

Set Pieces

Set Piecespenalty / own-goal share
events 12/1212/121212
87%13/15
Open-Play Share93%

Of the team's scored goals, share from open play — non-set-piece scoring quality.

100%15/15
7%1/15
Penalty Share

Of the team's scored goals, share from penalty kicks — penalty dependency.

0%0/15
7%1/15
Opp Own-Goal Bonus

Of the team's scored goals, share that were opponent own-goals — pressure / fortune.

0%0/15
0%0/15
Penalty Conceded Share

Of conceded goals, share from opponent penalties — defensive discipline (lower is better).

0%0/9
0%0/15
Own-Goal Cost

Of conceded goals, share that were the team's own goals — pressure-induced errors (lower is better).

11%1/9

Corners

Cornersset-piece pressure
1212
4.17
Avg Corners For

Average corners won per match — attacking territorial pressure (> 5.5 is heavy).

5.08
5.08
Avg Corners Against

Average corners conceded per match — territorial pressure faced (lower is better).

5.08
45%
Corner Share48%

Share of total corners in the team's matches that went to the team — territorial dominance ratio.

50%
0.20
EWMACorners Diff

Smoothed corner differential per match — long-term territorial advantage (±2 is strong).

0.25
67%8/12
Match Corners > 8.567%

Share of matches with total corners > 8.5 (Over 8.5 line) — high-tempo encounter signal.

67%8/12
50%6/12
Match Corners > 9.550%

Share of matches with total corners > 9.5 (Over 9.5 line).

50%6/12
42%5/12
Match Corners > 10.542%

Share of matches with total corners > 10.5 (Over 10.5 line) — corner-heavy clashes only.

42%5/12

Cards & Discipline

Cards & Disciplineyellows, reds & fouls
events 12/1212/121212
1.92
Avg Yellow Cards

Yellow cards picked up per match — discipline signal (lower is better).

2.17
17%2/12
Red Card Match Rate

Share of matches with at least one red card to the team — sending-off risk.

0%0/12
11.50
Avg Fouls

Fouls committed per match — aggression / tactical-foul tendency (lower is calmer).

9.17
80%8/10
Match Cards > 3.584%

Share of matches with total card points (both teams, yellow=1 / red=2, 2Y→R counted as 2) > 3.5 — Over 3.5 line.

89%8/9
10/129/12
60%6/10
Match Cards > 4.563%

Share of matches with total card points > 4.5 — Over 4.5 line.

67%6/9
10/129/12
67%
Cards in 2nd Half

Share of card events that occur after halftime — late-discipline tendency.

64%

Venue Edge

Venue EdgeWatford at home · Middlesbrough on the road
66
2.17
PPG at Venue

Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.

1.83
67%4/6
Win Rate58%

Share of sampled matches won.

50%3/6
17%1/6
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

17%1/6
1.67
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.50
1.17
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

0.83
0%0/6
Clean Sheet17%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

33%2/6
83%5/6
BTTS67%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

50%3/6
83%5/6
Over 2.567%

Share of venue matches with total goals > 2.5.

50%3/6
1.39
EWMAAttack xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG created at venue — long-term attacking strength in this fixture's venue context.

1.19
1.22
EWMADefense xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG conceded at venue — defensive strength in this fixture's venue context (lower is better).

1.23