LDWLW
2-3
Finished
HT1-2
WLDLL
📍 AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer
Cross-referencing our proprietary match analytics — form, H2H, key metrics, streaks, and tactical reads — with 16+ prediction portals, live odds, and team news to deliver a single-pane-of-glass briefing built for serious football analysts.
Each bar is the model's chance of that corner total — the last bar is that count or more. Bars right of the marked line are Over, left are Under.
Each bar is the model's chance of that card total — the last bar is that count or more. Bars right of the marked line are Over, left are Under.
The model leans towards a 2-1 Jong AZ victory, and the underlying xG data supports their offensive capabilities despite poor results. However, both teams have significant absences that could disrupt rhythm; Jong AZ is without M. Chávez and J. Zwart, while Emmen is missing multiple players including A. Claridge Jensen and L. Denk due to injury. Given Jong AZ's tendency for high-scoring games and the referee's above-average card issuance, combined with both teams' defensive vulnerabilities, the Over 2.5 Goals looks a strong play, irrespective of who ultimately wins.
Betting Over 2.5 Goals: Jong AZ's last 10 matches across all competitions have seen 69% go Over 2.5 goals, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game. Emmen's games also hit 69% Over 2.5 goals in the same period.
Both Teams To Score: Jong AZ has seen BTTS hit in 80% of their last 10 matches across all competitions, reflecting their high-scoring but also leaky nature. has seen BTTS in 64% of their last 10 overall.
Jong AZ creates significantly more expected goals per game, suggesting better offensive quality compared to Emmen, which is 64% below the league average for xG created. This indicates Jong AZ should have more clear-cut opportunities.
Jong AZ has won only 1 of their last 10 Eerste Divisie home matches (1W,1D,8L in 10), indicating severe struggles at their own venue.
Emmen has failed to win any of their last 5 away Eerste Divisie matches (0W,1D,4L in 5), showing a lack of cutting edge on the road.
Jong AZ's last 10 Eerste Divisie matches have gone Over 2.5 goals in 90% of cases, highlighting their consistent involvement in high-scoring encounters.
Sitting 18th with 30 points, Jong AZ is only three points behind 14th-placed Emmen, making this a crucial six-pointer. Jong AZ's home form is dire, with a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 8 losses in their last 10 Eerste Divisie home matches, conceding a staggering 23 goals. Their last home draw was a 2-2 against Den Bosch in February. Conversely, Emmen's away record is not much better, managing 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses in their last 10 Eerste Divisie away fixtures, conceding 21 goals. Their most recent away result was a 0-1 loss to Dordrecht in February. Head-to-head records show a balanced rivalry, with the last 5 meetings split 2 wins for each side and 1 draw, though Emmen did secure a commanding 4-2 victory three months ago. Looking at the EWMA metrics, Jong AZ holds a clear advantage in xG created per game (1.99 vs 1.59) and a positive xG difference (+0.06) compared to Emmen's negative (-0.35), suggesting Jong AZ are generating better quality chances overall. Jong AZ also outscores Emmen (1.83 goals/game vs 1.33 goals/game) but does concede slightly more (1.90 vs 1.72). The buzz suggests Jong AZ games are generally high-scoring affairs, with over 1.5 goals in their last 12 league games.
For Jong AZ, Mathijs Menu is a central figure in midfield, displaying strong overall performance and contributing to the team's dynamics. Rion Ichihara is another influential player, often involved in critical plays for the team. A. Natali is a key defender for Jong AZ, providing stability at the back.
For Jong AZ, Mathijs Menu is a central figure in midfield, displaying strong overall performance and contributing to the team's dynamics. Rion Ichihara is another influential player, often involved in critical plays for the team. A. Natali is a key defender for Jong AZ, providing stability at the back.
For Emmen, Romano Postema is a significant attacking threat, capable of creating and finishing chances. Pascal Mulder is an important presence for Emmen, contributing both defensively and offensively. Lukas Larsen is a versatile player who can impact the game from various positions.
Both teams are expected to field competitive squads with no significant injuries or suspensions reported for a full-strength contest, though some individual player injury reports exist for Emmen.
Jong AZ's matches tend to be entertaining with over 1.5 goals in their last 12 league games, and at least one goal in the second half in all of those fixtures.
This Eerste Divisie clash sees a struggling Jong AZ host Emmen, with both sides desperate for points to distance themselves from the bottom of the table. Despite poor home form, Jong AZ appears to have a slight attacking edge that could prove decisive.
Jong AZ is fighting to climb out of the bottom half of the table, sitting just three points adrift of their opponents. A win here would be massive for their league position and confidence.
Emmen needs points to solidify their mid-table position and create a safer gap from the relegation zone. Losing here would drag them back into the thick of a tight cluster of teams.
This report updates automatically as new information becomes available. Probabilities and analytics may shift based on team news, injuries, lineups and other pre-match developments.
Jong AZ to Score Over 1.5 Goals: They average 1.83 goals per game in all competitions (EWMA) and have scored 20 goals in their last 10 league matches, suggesting they can find the net multiple times against an Emmen defense that has conceded 21 goals in their last 10 away league matches.
Jong AZ maintains a positive xG difference, showing they generally out-create their opponents. Emmen's negative xG difference suggests they are conceding higher quality chances than they create, a major red flag for bettors.
Jong AZ averages 0.5 more goals per game than Emmen, reflecting their more potent attack. This could be key in a match where both defenses are vulnerable.
While Emmen's away form is not stellar, their average points per game on the road is double that of Jong AZ at home in the league, showing Jong AZ struggles severely on their own patch.
Jong AZ games are overwhelmingly high-scoring, with 90% of their last 10 across all competitions going over 2.5 goals. This is a crucial metric for total goals betting and is 26% above the league average of 64%.
Jong AZ concedes fewer shots on target per game than Emmen, suggesting their defense, despite high goals conceded, forces opponents to be less accurate. Emmen's higher number indicates their goalkeeper is tested more often.
Emmen's manager, Menno van Dam, has a reputation for being a good coach with youth sides, which may benefit the current group of players.
Jong AZ's substitutes have been surprisingly potent, scoring a significant portion of the team's goals, suggesting they can find late goals from off-the-bench options.
The weather conditions for the match are mild, with temperatures around 7°C and light wind at 3 km/h. There is no significant rain expected, with a probability of only 10%. This means the weather will have no discernible impact on the quality of play or the outcome of the match, and betting markets for goals, corners, or cards will not be influenced by external conditions.