LLLLW
0-0
Finished
HT0-0
WDWWL
📍 Asito Stadium, Almelo
Cross-referencing our proprietary match analytics — form, H2H, key metrics, streaks, and tactical reads — with 16+ prediction portals, live odds, and team news to deliver a single-pane-of-glass briefing built for serious football analysts.
Each bar is the model's chance of that corner total — the last bar is that count or more. Bars right of the marked line are Over, left are Under.
Each bar is the model's chance of that card total — the last bar is that count or more. Bars right of the marked line are Over, left are Under.
The mathematical model favors an Utrecht 2-1 victory, but the situational factors suggest a wider margin could be in play. Heracles are missing their defensive anchor Damon Mirani to suspension, which leaves them vulnerable to Utrecht's high-volume shooting (14.54 per game). While the hosts are desperate, their league-worst defensive record (2.54 goals conceded per game) is unlikely to hold up against Yoann Cathline and a side that has already won 4-0 in the reverse fixture.
Utrecht to win outright based on Heracles losing 9 of their last 10 Eredivisie matches.
Over 2.5 goals looks likely, as 50% of Heracles' last 10 league games have surpassed this threshold due to their poor defensive organization.
Heracles' defense is significantly more porous than the league average, conceding over 2.5 goals per match.
Utrecht creates better quality chances than they concede, while Heracles consistently loses the underlying numbers battle.
Heracles have lost 9 of their last 10 matches in the Eredivisie (1W, 0D, 9L).
Utrecht have won 3 of their last 4 Eredivisie matches, including a 2-0 win over AZ Alkmaar.
Heracles have failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 consecutive matches across all competitions.
Heracles enter this fixture in a defensive crisis, having conceded 28 goals in their last 10 Eredivisie matches. The suspension of Damon Mirani further complicates matters for manager Ernest Faber, who must find a way to shield a backline that allows a staggering 7.02 shots on target against per game. Utrecht will look to exploit these gaps through the creativity of Souffian El Karouani and the clinical finishing of Yoann Cathline, who remains a primary threat in open play. While Heracles managed a 2-1 win over Fortuna Sittard in February, their recent 0-4 thumping by GO Ahead Eagles and 1-3 loss to PSV Eindhoven highlight a persistent inability to contain top-half opposition. Utrecht's away form is particularly encouraging, featuring recent wins at Groningen (2-1) and NEC Nijmegen (3-1), suggesting they have the tactical discipline to navigate this trip.
For Heracles, forward Lequincio Zeefuik is a primary threat in attack, having been responsible for recent goals and looking to capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities. Midfielder Ajdin Hrustić is crucial for creativity, adept at linking play and providing dangerous set-piece deliveries. Defender Mike te Wierik provides experience and leadership in an often-overworked backline.
For Heracles, forward Lequincio Zeefuik is a primary threat in attack, having been responsible for recent goals and looking to capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities. Midfielder Ajdin Hrustić is crucial for creativity, adept at linking play and providing dangerous set-piece deliveries. Defender Mike te Wierik provides experience and leadership in an often-overworked backline.
For Utrecht, forward Yoann Cathline is in strong scoring form and is pivotal in open play and set-piece situations, while Ángel Alarcón also contributes significantly to the attack. Left-back Souffian El Karouani is an important source of assists, often delivering dangerous crosses. Midfielders like Dani De Wit and Gjivai Zechiel contribute with crucial goals and assists, adding to the team's dynamism.
Heracles are currently at the bottom of the Eredivisie table, having lost eight of their last ten matches.
Utrecht has been in good form, securing three wins in their last four matches, including a recent 2-0 victory over AZ Alkmaar.
Bottom-dwelling Heracles face a daunting task as they attempt to arrest a slide that has seen them lose nine of their last ten league matches. They host a resurgent Utrecht side coming off a statement 2-0 victory over AZ Alkmaar and looking to cement their European play-off positioning.
Utrecht's win probability is adjusted upward by approximately 5% due to the suspension of Heracles' key defender Damon Mirani and Heracles' current form of 9 losses in their last 10 Eredivisie matches. Heracles' draw probability is lowered as they have recorded zero draws in their last 10 league outings.
Sitting 18th in the table, Heracles are in a desperate fight for survival; every point is critical to avoid automatic relegation.
Currently 8th, Utrecht are pushing for higher seeding in the European competition play-offs and looking to maintain momentum after beating AZ Alkmaar.
This report updates automatically as new information becomes available. Probabilities and analytics may shift based on team news, injuries, lineups and other pre-match developments.
The hosts allow 55% more shots on target than Utrecht, a recipe for high-scoring losses.
Heracles have only managed one victory in their last 10 league outings.
Utrecht's higher shot volume translates to more corner opportunities, though both teams are below the 10.37 league average.
Utrecht's owner has expressed disappointment with Sébastien Haller's performance this season, stating it's questionable if he will play again this season due to ongoing injury issues.
Heracles manager Ernest Faber is under significant pressure, with the team facing a bleak outlook and a heavy defensive record, having conceded 65 goals this season.
With clear skies and negligible wind speeds of 2 km/h, the weather will have no impact on tactical execution. Expect a fast pitch surface that favors Utrecht's technical attackers like Ángel Alarcón and Yoann Cathline.