WDDLL
1-0
Finished
HT0-0
LLLLW
📍 Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
Cross-referencing our proprietary match analytics — form, H2H, key metrics, streaks, and tactical reads — with 16+ prediction portals, live odds, and team news to deliver a single-pane-of-glass briefing built for serious football analysts.
Each bar is the model's chance of that corner total — the last bar is that count or more. Bars right of the marked line are Over, left are Under.
Each bar is the model's chance of that card total — the last bar is that count or more. Bars right of the marked line are Over, left are Under.
The mathematical model suggests a low-scoring draw, but the real-world context heavily favors a home result. Pisa's winless away record combined with the psychological weight of potential relegation and key injuries to M. Marin and M. Tramoni makes a visitor comeback unlikely if they concede first. Parma's defensive stability should handle a desperate but inefficient Pisa attack.
Parma to win or draw and Under 2.5 goals looks strong given Parma's 48% Over 2.5 rate in their last 10 league games.
Pisa to score Under 0.5 goals, as they have zero wins and only 16 goals in 16 away league matches this season.
Parma's defense is nearly twice as tight as Pisa's, which is currently the league's most porous.
Parma is performing at a mid-table level while Pisa's form is that of a certain bottom-feeder.
Parma has secured 4 wins and 4 draws in their last 10 Serie A matches.
Pisa has lost 8 of their last 10 league matches and is winless in 20 games after conceding first.
Pisa is winless away from home in the league this season with zero wins in 16 attempts.
Parma enters this clash in superior form, collecting 1.6 PPG over their last 10 Serie A matches, including a disciplined 1-0 away win at Udinese. While they aren't prolific scorers, averaging just 0.79 goals per game, their defensive structure is significantly more robust than the visitors, conceding nearly one goal fewer per match (1.22 vs 2.09). Pisa is enduring a catastrophic run with eight losses in their last 10 games and remains winless on the road for the entire season (0W, 8D, 8L). The absence of M. Marin and M. Tramoni further blunts a Pisa attack that has failed to score in four of its last five away league fixtures. Despite Pisa creating a slightly higher xG of 0.95, they suffer from a complete psychological collapse when trailing, having failed to win any of the 20 matches this season where they conceded first. Expect Parma to rely on Gabriel Strefezza to exploit a Pisa backline that has conceded 25 goals in its last 10 away trips across all competitions.
Parma lean on Gabriel Strefezza in attack, Emanuele Valeri and Mandela Keita in midfield, with Enrico Delprato at the back.
Parma lean on Gabriel Strefezza in attack, Emanuele Valeri and Mandela Keita in midfield, with Enrico Delprato at the back.
Pisa lean on Stefano Moreo in attack, Samuele Angori and Michel Aebischer in midfield, with Antonio Caracciolo at the back.
Coach Carlos Cuesta emphasised that mathematical safety is not the only goal, urging his players to maintain the mentality of growth and improvement against Pisa.
Pisa could be officially relegated this weekend if they lose and other results go against them, putting immense pressure on manager Oscar Hiljemark.
Parma looks to tighten their grip on a mid-table finish as they host a Pisa side teetering on the edge of the abyss. This is a survival nightmare for the visitors, who could be officially relegated this weekend if results go against them at the Ennio Tardini.
The market prices a Parma win at approximately 47% (2.14), but we move our expectation to 52% to account for Pisa's devastating injury list (Marin, Tramoni) and their total absence of away wins this season. These qualitative factors, combined with Parma's superior recent form (1.6 PPG), significantly reduce the visitor's likelihood of a result.
Coach Carlos Cuesta is pushing for a mentality of continuous growth, with the team aiming to secure their mathematical safety and improve their home record.
Desperation is the primary driver as they face potential official relegation this weekend; failure to win likely ends their stay in the top flight.
This report updates automatically as new information becomes available. Probabilities and analytics may shift based on team news, injuries, lineups and other pre-match developments.
Parma keeps a clean sheet four times as often as Pisa in their respective last 10 matches.
Pisa has failed to win a single away game in 16 league attempts this season.
Parma limits opposition quality better than Pisa, who concede 1.69 xG per game.
Pisa are winless in all 20 Serie A fixtures this season where they have conceded the opening goal, highlighting a major psychological hurdle.
Parma expect a physical battle, with Cuesta warning that Pisa is dangerous on set pieces and better than their league position suggests.
Mateo Pellegrino has been cleared to play after undergoing negative CT scans for a head injury sustained against Udinese.
Lautaro Valenti has fully recovered from a minor muscular problem that forced him out of the previous starting XI and is available for selection.
Runs 36% below league average on cards. awards penalties at 0.50/game.
Conditions are ideal for football with sunny skies and 24C temperatures. A negligible wind speed of 2 km/h means there will be zero disruption to long passing or set pieces, favoring a standard tactical match without weather-induced errors.