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Match Intelligence
Away Favored
Updated 3h ago
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Relegation-threatened Pisa face a daunting task against a surging Bologna side that has transformed into one of the league's most efficient away units. While the hosts are spiraling under managerial criticism, the visitors arrive buoyed by Europa League success and a four-match winning streak.
Home Motivation
High
Currently sitting 19th with just 15 points, every match is a desperate survival battle for Pisa to avoid the drop to Serie B.
Away Motivation
High
Sitting 8th and fresh off Europa League progression, Bologna is hunting for a European qualification spot and needs maximum points against bottom-half opposition.
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The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
0.98
xG Difference
All comps (EWMA)
1.32
Bologna consistently creates better quality chances than their opponents, while Pisa is heavily underwater.
0.84
Goals Scored per Game (Venue)
Season record at venue
1.28
A massive discrepancy; Pisa's home attack is the least productive in the division.
0.54
Points Per Game (Venue)
Season record at venue
1.46
Bologna earns nearly triple the points on the road that Pisa manages at home.
42%
Possession %
All comps (EWMA)
53%
Bologna's ability to control the tempo (11% above Pisa) will likely force the hosts into a low block.
3.01
Shots on Target per Game
All comps (EWMA)
4.74
Bologna tests goalkeepers significantly more often than the goal-shy hosts.
10%
Clean Sheet %
All comps (last 10)
40%
Bologna is four times more likely to keep a clean sheet based on the last 10 matches.
Form & Streaks
Pisa are winless in their last 10 Serie A matches (0W, 4D, 6L).
Bologna have won 4 successive matches across all competitions.
Bologna have won 5 of their last 10 away matches in Serie A.
Pisa have lost 6 of their last 10 matches at home in the league.
Tactical Overview
The gulf in class is evident in the season-long metrics, where Pisa has managed a dismal 0.31 goals per game across 13 Serie A home matches. Manager Oscar Hiljemark has openly questioned his squad's mentality, and a record of 0 wins in their last 10 league games (0W, 4D, 6L) suggests the rot is deep. In contrast, Bologna has mastered the art of the road trip, securing a 1.8 PPG average in their last 10 league away fixtures. Their recent 2-1 win over Torino and two 1-0 victories over Brann and Udinese highlight a side that knows how to grind out results. Pisa will likely retreat into a 3-5-2 to protect goalkeeper Nicolas, but their -0.78 xG difference suggests they are consistently losing the battle for quality chances. Bologna should dominate the ball, leveraging Lewis Ferguson and Remo Freuler to bypass a Pisa midfield that has struggled to provide cover for a defense that conceded 21 goals in its last 10 outings.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
For Pisa, goalkeeper Nicolas is a vital presence, providing a reliable last line of defense for a team that has struggled defensively this season. Midfielder Marius Marin is crucial in the center of the park, responsible for breaking up play and initiating attacks. Upfront, Filip Stojilkovic is expected to lead the line, with his ability to challenge defenders and create scoring opportunities being key for Pisa's attacking aspirations.
Absences
Simone Scuffet
muscle injury
Calvin Stengs
knee injury
Isak Vural
knee injury
Daniel Denoon
muscle injury
Felipe Loyola
injury
Home
Key Players
For Pisa, goalkeeper Nicolas is a vital presence, providing a reliable last line of defense for a team that has struggled defensively this season. Midfielder Marius Marin is crucial in the center of the park, responsible for breaking up play and initiating attacks. Upfront, Filip Stojilkovic is expected to lead the line, with his ability to challenge defenders and create scoring opportunities being key for Pisa's attacking aspirations.
Absences
Simone Scuffet
muscle injury
Calvin Stengs
knee injury
Isak Vural
knee injury
Daniel Denoon
muscle injury
Felipe Loyola
injury
Away
Key Players
For Bologna, Lukasz Skorupski is a consistent performer in goal, providing experience and crucial saves. In midfield, Lewis Ferguson is a dynamic presence, contributing to both defense and attack. Upfront, Santiago Castro has been in good scoring form recently, and his ability to find the back of the net will be important for Bologna's offensive efforts.
Absences
Juan Miranda
hip injury
Charalampos Lykogiannis
muscle injury
Torbjorn Heggem
conditioning/hip problem
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Referee Profile
E. Feliciani
10 matches officiated · 2025/26
Fouls/G
24.3
▼
avg 25.9
Pen Rate
0.30
NormalE. Feliciani has officiated 10 Serie A games this season, averaging 24.3 fouls per match-slightly below the league average of 25.92. Given his history of leniency, expect a fluid game that favors Bologna's superior ball retention over Pisa's physical attempts to disrupt play.
Key Note
E. Feliciani was criticized for being overly lenient in a Serie A match between Inter Milan and Empoli in January 2025, ignoring multiple blatant fouls.
Weather & Pitch
Good Conditions
13C, drizzle (0.0mm)
Temperature
13.2°C
Rain Chance
61%
Wind
0.7 km/h
Humidity
75%
With only light drizzle and negligible wind (0.7 km/h), the weather will not hinder Bologna's technical passing game. The mild 13C conditions are ideal for maintaining high intensity, suggesting no weather-related cap on goals or corner counts.
Insider Intel