Primera División - Apertura·
Intermediate Round - 3·06/08/2025·09:30
Progreso
Progreso
LLLWL
1-0
Finished
HT0-0
Miramar
Miramar
LLDWL
📍 Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo
Season statsPrimera División - Apertura
Progreso17matchesMiramar17matches

Every panel below reflects each team's matches in Primera División - Apertura.

Coverage varies by leaguetop-tier competitions have richer per-match data; lower divisions and smaller leagues track fewer metrics, so some panels may be sparse or missing entirely.
Pre-match snapshotevery value reflects each team's state going into kick-off — frozen before the match starts, not updated live.

Overall

Overallteam-strength snapshot
34%
Overall

Composite team strength — average of LTQ and Hype.

28%
1262
ELO

Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.

1272
42%
LTQ

Long-term quality across all competitions.

28%
26%
Hype

Short-term fixture buzz / excitement signal.

28%
2.06
Momentum

Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).

2.20

Match Outcome

Match Outcomeresults breakdown
1717
0.88
Points per Game

Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).

0.71
18%
Win Rate

Share of sampled matches won.

18%
35%
Draw Rate

Share of sampled matches that ended level.

18%
47%
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

65%
6%
Clean Sheet9%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

12%
29%
Failed to Score

Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).

35%

Goal Scoring

Goal Scoringattacking output
1717
1.00
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

0.94
71%
Scored > 0.568%

Share of matches where the team scored at least once.

65%
76%
Over 1.576%

Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.

76%
47%
Over 2.544%

Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.

41%
29%
Over 3.524%

Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.

18%
71%
BTTS62%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

53%
18%
BTTS & Win

Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.

6%
12%
Scored Both Halves12%

Share of matches with a goal in both the 1st and 2nd half.

12%

Defensive Solidity

Defensive Soliditygoals & shots conceded
1717
1.71
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.59
6%
Clean Sheet9%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

12%

xG Trends

xG TrendsEWMA-smoothed performance
1717
1.07
EWMAxG For

Smoothed expected goals created per match — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.

1.02
1.84
EWMAxG Against

Smoothed expected goals conceded per match — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.

1.78
-0.77
EWMAxG Diff

Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.

-0.76
-0.17
EWMAFinishing Edge

Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.

-0.16

HT / FT Patterns

HT / FT Patternshalf-time vs full-time outcomes
1717
18%3/17
Leading at HT18%

Share of matches the team led at halftime — fast-start signal.

18%3/17
35%6/17
Level at HT

Share of matches level at halftime — balanced or low-tempo openings.

47%8/17
47%8/17
Trailing at HT

Share of matches the team trailed at halftime — slow starts (lower is better).

35%6/17
59%10/17
HT/FT Same Outcome56%

Share of matches where the W/D/L state at halftime matched the full-time result — game-state stability.

53%9/17
33%1/3
Led at HT → Won33%

Of matches led at HT, share converted into a full-time win — closing strength.

33%1/3
25%2/8
Trailed at HT → Recovered13%

Of matches trailing at HT, share rescued to a draw or win — comeback resilience.

0%0/6

Goal Timing

Goal Timingwhen goals happen
events 17/1717/171717
12%
0-15'11%

Hot starts — share of the team's goals scored in the opening 15 minutes.

11%
6%
16-30'11%

Early control — share scored between the 16th and 30th minute.

17%
6%
31-45'17%

Pre-HT push — share scored in the run-up to halftime.

28%
29%
46-60'20%

Restart wave — share scored in the first 15 minutes after HT.

11%
12%
61-75'9%

Game-state shift — share scored between minutes 61 and 75.

6%
35%
76-90+'32%

Late-game finishers — share scored from the 76th minute onwards (incl. stoppage time).

28%

First-Goal Edge

First-Goal Edgewho strikes first
events 17/1717/171717
38%6/16
Scored First42%

Share of matches where the team opened the scoring — fast-start signal.

47%8/17
63%10/16
Conceded First

Share of matches where the team conceded the opening goal (lower is better).

53%9/17
33%2/6
Win when Scoring First35%

Of matches the team scored first, share converted into a win — closing strength after the opener.

38%3/8
10%1/10
Win when Conceding First5%

Of matches conceding first, share rescued into a win — comeback strength.

0%0/9
36'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Scored

Average minute of the team's first goal — earlier means faster starters.

39'
25'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Conceded

Average minute of the first goal conceded — later is better (defense holds longer).

42'

Late-Game Strength

Late-Game Strengthafter the 75th minute
events 17/1717/171717
35%6/17
Scored after 75'32%

Share of matches with a late goal scored by the team — late finishers signal.

29%5/17
47%8/17
Conceded after 75'

Share of matches the team conceded a late goal — late-game vulnerability (lower is better).

29%5/17
25%1/4
Lead Saved after 75'63%

Of matches leading at 75', share closed out for a win — closing strength.

100%1/1
75%3/4
Lead Lost after 75'

Of matches leading at 75', share dropped to a draw or loss — late-game collapse risk.

0%0/1
35%6/17
Any Goal in Stoppage Time

Share of matches with any goal in stoppage time (90+) — late-drama frequency.

12%2/17

Set Pieces

Set Piecespenalty / own-goal share
events 17/1717/171717
65%11/17
Open-Play Share71%

Of the team's scored goals, share from open play — non-set-piece scoring quality.

78%14/18
29%5/17
Penalty Share

Of the team's scored goals, share from penalty kicks — penalty dependency.

11%2/18
6%1/17
Opp Own-Goal Bonus

Of the team's scored goals, share that were opponent own-goals — pressure / fortune.

11%2/18
27%8/30
Penalty Conceded Share

Of conceded goals, share from opponent penalties — defensive discipline (lower is better).

19%5/26
3%1/30
Own-Goal Cost

Of conceded goals, share that were the team's own goals — pressure-induced errors (lower is better).

0%0/26

Cards & Discipline

Cards & Disciplineyellows, reds & fouls
events 17/1717/171717
100%17/17
Match Cards > 3.597%

Share of matches with total card points (both teams, yellow=1 / red=2, 2Y→R counted as 2) > 3.5 — Over 3.5 line.

94%15/16
16/17
82%14/17
Match Cards > 4.572%

Share of matches with total card points > 4.5 — Over 4.5 line.

63%10/16
16/17
69%
Cards in 2nd Half

Share of card events that occur after halftime — late-discipline tendency.

64%

Venue Edge

Venue EdgeProgreso at home · Miramar on the road
98
0.56
PPG at Venue

Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.

0.50
11%1/9
Win Rate12%

Share of sampled matches won.

13%1/8
67%6/9
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

75%6/8
0.89
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.00
2.00
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

2.13
0%0/9
Clean Sheet0%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

0%0/8
67%6/9
BTTS65%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

63%5/8
56%5/9
Over 2.553%

Share of venue matches with total goals > 2.5.

50%4/8
0.95
EWMAAttack xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG created at venue — long-term attacking strength in this fixture's venue context.

0.92
2.07
EWMADefense xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG conceded at venue — defensive strength in this fixture's venue context (lower is better).

2.19