Primera División - Apertura·
Apertura - 15·05/18/2025·14:00
Progreso
Progreso
WLWDD
1-2
Finished
HT0-1
Juventud
Juventud
WDWLW
📍 Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo
Season statsPrimera División - Apertura
Progreso14matchesJuventud14matches

Every panel below reflects each team's matches in Primera División - Apertura.

Coverage varies by leaguetop-tier competitions have richer per-match data; lower divisions and smaller leagues track fewer metrics, so some panels may be sparse or missing entirely.
Pre-match snapshotevery value reflects each team's state going into kick-off — frozen before the match starts, not updated live.

Overall

Overallteam-strength snapshot
56%
Overall

Composite team strength — average of LTQ and Hype.

72%
1281
ELO

Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.

1378
52%
LTQ

Long-term quality across all competitions.

66%
59%
Hype

Short-term fixture buzz / excitement signal.

78%
2.46
Momentum

Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).

1.78

Match Outcome

Match Outcomeresults breakdown
1414
1.07
Points per Game

Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).

1.93
21%
Win Rate

Share of sampled matches won.

57%
43%
Draw Rate

Share of sampled matches that ended level.

21%
36%
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

21%
7%
Clean Sheet18%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

29%
21%
Failed to Score

Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).

21%

Goal Scoring

Goal Scoringattacking output
1414
1.14
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.50
79%
Scored > 0.579%

Share of matches where the team scored at least once.

79%
86%
Over 1.575%

Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.

64%
50%
Over 2.550%

Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.

50%
36%
Over 3.529%

Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.

21%
79%
BTTS68%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

57%
21%
BTTS & Win

Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.

36%
14%
Scored Both Halves25%

Share of matches with a goal in both the 1st and 2nd half.

36%

Defensive Solidity

Defensive Soliditygoals & shots conceded
1414
1.79
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.00
7%
Clean Sheet18%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

29%

xG Trends

xG TrendsEWMA-smoothed performance
1414
1.32
EWMAxG For

Smoothed expected goals created per match — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.

1.55
1.95
EWMAxG Against

Smoothed expected goals conceded per match — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.

1.08
-0.63
EWMAxG Diff

Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.

0.46
-0.26
EWMAFinishing Edge

Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.

-0.27

HT / FT Patterns

HT / FT Patternshalf-time vs full-time outcomes
1414
21%3/14
Leading at HT32%

Share of matches the team led at halftime — fast-start signal.

43%6/14
29%4/14
Level at HT

Share of matches level at halftime — balanced or low-tempo openings.

50%7/14
50%7/14
Trailing at HT

Share of matches the team trailed at halftime — slow starts (lower is better).

7%1/14
64%9/14
HT/FT Same Outcome57%

Share of matches where the W/D/L state at halftime matched the full-time result — game-state stability.

50%7/14
33%1/3
Led at HT → Won58%

Of matches led at HT, share converted into a full-time win — closing strength.

83%5/6
29%2/7
Trailed at HT → Recovered64%

Of matches trailing at HT, share rescued to a draw or win — comeback resilience.

100%1/1

Goal Timing

Goal Timingwhen goals happen
events 14/1414/141414
13%
0-15'10%

Hot starts — share of the team's goals scored in the opening 15 minutes.

8%
6%
16-30'9%

Early control — share scored between the 16th and 30th minute.

13%
6%
31-45'20%

Pre-HT push — share scored in the run-up to halftime.

33%
31%
46-60'20%

Restart wave — share scored in the first 15 minutes after HT.

8%
6%
61-75'14%

Game-state shift — share scored between minutes 61 and 75.

21%
38%
76-90+'27%

Late-game finishers — share scored from the 76th minute onwards (incl. stoppage time).

17%

First-Goal Edge

First-Goal Edgewho strikes first
events 14/1414/141414
38%5/13
Scored First54%

Share of matches where the team opened the scoring — fast-start signal.

69%9/13
62%8/13
Conceded First

Share of matches where the team conceded the opening goal (lower is better).

31%4/13
40%2/5
Win when Scoring First59%

Of matches the team scored first, share converted into a win — closing strength after the opener.

78%7/9
13%1/8
Win when Conceding First19%

Of matches conceding first, share rescued into a win — comeback strength.

25%1/4
29'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Scored

Average minute of the team's first goal — earlier means faster starters.

27'
20'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Conceded

Average minute of the first goal conceded — later is better (defense holds longer).

45'

Late-Game Strength

Late-Game Strengthafter the 75th minute
events 14/1414/141414
43%6/14
Scored after 75'36%

Share of matches with a late goal scored by the team — late finishers signal.

29%4/14
50%7/14
Conceded after 75'

Share of matches the team conceded a late goal — late-game vulnerability (lower is better).

29%4/14
33%1/3
Lead Saved after 75'60%

Of matches leading at 75', share closed out for a win — closing strength.

88%7/8
67%2/3
Lead Lost after 75'

Of matches leading at 75', share dropped to a draw or loss — late-game collapse risk.

13%1/8
43%6/14
Any Goal in Stoppage Time

Share of matches with any goal in stoppage time (90+) — late-drama frequency.

7%1/14

Set Pieces

Set Piecespenalty / own-goal share
events 14/1414/141414
69%11/16
Open-Play Share76%

Of the team's scored goals, share from open play — non-set-piece scoring quality.

83%20/24
31%5/16
Penalty Share

Of the team's scored goals, share from penalty kicks — penalty dependency.

13%3/24
0%0/16
Opp Own-Goal Bonus

Of the team's scored goals, share that were opponent own-goals — pressure / fortune.

4%1/24
31%8/26
Penalty Conceded Share

Of conceded goals, share from opponent penalties — defensive discipline (lower is better).

15%2/13
0%0/26
Own-Goal Cost

Of conceded goals, share that were the team's own goals — pressure-induced errors (lower is better).

0%0/13

Cards & Discipline

Cards & Disciplineyellows, reds & fouls
events 14/1414/141414
100%14/14
Match Cards > 3.588%

Share of matches with total card points (both teams, yellow=1 / red=2, 2Y→R counted as 2) > 3.5 — Over 3.5 line.

77%10/13
13/14
79%11/14
Match Cards > 4.562%

Share of matches with total card points > 4.5 — Over 4.5 line.

46%6/13
13/14
69%
Cards in 2nd Half

Share of card events that occur after halftime — late-discipline tendency.

69%

Venue Edge

Venue EdgeProgreso at home · Juventud on the road
77
0.71
PPG at Venue

Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.

1.57
14%1/7
Win Rate29%

Share of sampled matches won.

43%3/7
57%4/7
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

29%2/7
1.00
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.43
2.14
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.14
0%0/7
Clean Sheet7%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

14%1/7
71%5/7
BTTS71%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

71%5/7
57%4/7
Over 2.557%

Share of venue matches with total goals > 2.5.

57%4/7
1.03
EWMAAttack xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG created at venue — long-term attacking strength in this fixture's venue context.

1.57
2.14
EWMADefense xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG conceded at venue — defensive strength in this fixture's venue context (lower is better).

1.40