Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification·
Group Stage - 6·11/18/2024·14:00
Comoros
Comoros
WDWDD
1-0
Finished
HT0-0
Madagascar
Madagascar
LLDDL
📍 Grand Stade Al-Hoceima, Al Hoceima
Last 10Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Comoros10matchesMadagascar10matches

Not in either team's main domestic league — every panel below reflects each team's most recent matches across all competitions.

Coverage varies by leaguetop-tier competitions have richer per-match data; lower divisions and smaller leagues track fewer metrics, so some panels may be sparse or missing entirely.
Pre-match snapshotevery value reflects each team's state going into kick-off — frozen before the match starts, not updated live.

Overall

Overallteam-strength snapshot
68%
Overall

Composite team strength — average of LTQ and Hype.

37%
1453
ELO

Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.

1404
61%
LTQ

Long-term quality across all competitions.

46%
74%
Hype

Short-term fixture buzz / excitement signal.

28%
2.14
Momentum

Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).

1.98

Match Outcome

Match Outcomeresults breakdown
1010
1.60
Points per Game

Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).

1.20
40%
Win Rate

Share of sampled matches won.

30%
40%
Draw Rate

Share of sampled matches that ended level.

30%
20%
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

40%
30%
Clean Sheet30%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

30%
10%
Failed to Score

Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).

40%

Goal Scoring

Goal Scoringattacking output
1010
1.20
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.00
90%
Scored > 0.575%

Share of matches where the team scored at least once.

60%
70%
Over 1.565%

Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.

60%
30%
Over 2.530%

Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.

30%
10%
Over 3.510%

Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.

10%
60%
BTTS50%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

40%
10%
BTTS & Win

Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.

10%
30%
Scored Both Halves25%

Share of matches with a goal in both the 1st and 2nd half.

20%

Defensive Solidity

Defensive Soliditygoals & shots conceded
1010
0.90
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.00
30%
Clean Sheet30%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

30%

xG Trends

xG TrendsEWMA-smoothed performance
1010
1.52
EWMAxG For

Smoothed expected goals created per match — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.

1.26
1.05
EWMAxG Against

Smoothed expected goals conceded per match — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.

1.45
0.46
EWMAxG Diff

Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.

-0.19
-0.26
EWMAFinishing Edge

Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.

-0.20

HT / FT Patterns

HT / FT Patternshalf-time vs full-time outcomes
1010
20%2/10
Leading at HT35%

Share of matches the team led at halftime — fast-start signal.

50%5/10
70%7/10
Level at HT

Share of matches level at halftime — balanced or low-tempo openings.

50%5/10
10%1/10
Trailing at HT

Share of matches the team trailed at halftime — slow starts (lower is better).

0%0/10
50%5/10
HT/FT Same Outcome50%

Share of matches where the W/D/L state at halftime matched the full-time result — game-state stability.

50%5/10
50%1/2
Led at HT → Won55%

Of matches led at HT, share converted into a full-time win — closing strength.

60%3/5
0%0/1
Trailed at HT → Recovered

Of matches trailing at HT, share rescued to a draw or win — comeback resilience.

0/0

Goal Timing

Goal Timingwhen goals happen
events 10/1010/101010
0%
0-15'17%

Hot starts — share of the team's goals scored in the opening 15 minutes.

33%
6%
16-30'9%

Early control — share scored between the 16th and 30th minute.

11%
25%
31-45'24%

Pre-HT push — share scored in the run-up to halftime.

22%
13%
46-60'6%

Restart wave — share scored in the first 15 minutes after HT.

0%
19%
61-75'15%

Game-state shift — share scored between minutes 61 and 75.

11%
38%
76-90+'30%

Late-game finishers — share scored from the 76th minute onwards (incl. stoppage time).

22%

First-Goal Edge

First-Goal Edgewho strikes first
events 10/1010/101010
60%6/10
Scored First58%

Share of matches where the team opened the scoring — fast-start signal.

56%5/9
40%4/10
Conceded First

Share of matches where the team conceded the opening goal (lower is better).

44%4/9
50%3/6
Win when Scoring First55%

Of matches the team scored first, share converted into a win — closing strength after the opener.

60%3/5
25%1/4
Win when Conceding First13%

Of matches conceding first, share rescued into a win — comeback strength.

0%0/4
46'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Scored

Average minute of the team's first goal — earlier means faster starters.

17'
21'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Conceded

Average minute of the first goal conceded — later is better (defense holds longer).

40'

Late-Game Strength

Late-Game Strengthafter the 75th minute
events 10/1010/101010
30%3/10
Scored after 75'20%

Share of matches with a late goal scored by the team — late finishers signal.

10%1/10
10%1/10
Conceded after 75'

Share of matches the team conceded a late goal — late-game vulnerability (lower is better).

50%5/10
75%3/4
Lead Saved after 75'75%

Of matches leading at 75', share closed out for a win — closing strength.

75%3/4
25%1/4
Lead Lost after 75'

Of matches leading at 75', share dropped to a draw or loss — late-game collapse risk.

25%1/4
10%1/10
Any Goal in Stoppage Time

Share of matches with any goal in stoppage time (90+) — late-drama frequency.

50%5/10

Set Pieces

Set Piecespenalty / own-goal share
events 10/1010/101010
63%10/16
Open-Play Share81%

Of the team's scored goals, share from open play — non-set-piece scoring quality.

100%9/9
38%6/16
Penalty Share

Of the team's scored goals, share from penalty kicks — penalty dependency.

0%0/9
0%0/16
Opp Own-Goal Bonus

Of the team's scored goals, share that were opponent own-goals — pressure / fortune.

0%0/9
31%4/13
Penalty Conceded Share

Of conceded goals, share from opponent penalties — defensive discipline (lower is better).

8%1/12
0%0/13
Own-Goal Cost

Of conceded goals, share that were the team's own goals — pressure-induced errors (lower is better).

8%1/12

Cards & Discipline

Cards & Disciplineyellows, reds & fouls
events 10/1010/101010
67%6/9
Match Cards > 3.558%

Share of matches with total card points (both teams, yellow=1 / red=2, 2Y→R counted as 2) > 3.5 — Over 3.5 line.

50%4/8
9/108/10
44%4/9
Match Cards > 4.541%

Share of matches with total card points > 4.5 — Over 4.5 line.

38%3/8
9/108/10
61%
Cards in 2nd Half

Share of card events that occur after halftime — late-discipline tendency.

55%

Venue Edge

Venue EdgeComoros at home · Madagascar on the road
64
1.00
PPG at Venue

Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.

0.75
17%1/6
Win Rate21%

Share of sampled matches won.

25%1/4
33%2/6
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

75%3/4
1.00
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

0.75
1.17
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.00
17%1/6
Clean Sheet21%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

25%1/4
67%4/6
BTTS33%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

0%0/4
33%2/6
Over 2.529%

Share of venue matches with total goals > 2.5.

25%1/4
1.25
EWMAAttack xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG created at venue — long-term attacking strength in this fixture's venue context.

1.05
1.28
EWMADefense xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG conceded at venue — defensive strength in this fixture's venue context (lower is better).

0.85