Championship·
Regular Season - 9·10/05/2024·10:00
Watford
Watford
LWLLD
2-1
Finished
HT0-0
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
WWLDW
📍 Vicarage Road, Watford
Season statsChampionship
Watford8matchesMiddlesbrough8matches

Every panel below reflects each team's matches in Championship.

Coverage varies by leaguetop-tier competitions have richer per-match data; lower divisions and smaller leagues track fewer metrics, so some panels may be sparse or missing entirely.
Pre-match snapshotevery value reflects each team's state going into kick-off — frozen before the match starts, not updated live.

Overall

Overallteam-strength snapshot
43%
Overall

Composite team strength — average of LTQ and Hype.

64%
1489
ELO

Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.

1576
54%
LTQ

Long-term quality across all competitions.

63%
32%
Hype

Short-term fixture buzz / excitement signal.

64%
2.92
Momentum

Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).

1.89

Match Outcome

Match Outcomeresults breakdown
88
1.62
Points per Game

Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).

1.75
50%
Win Rate

Share of sampled matches won.

50%
13%
Draw Rate

Share of sampled matches that ended level.

25%
38%
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

25%
13%
Clean Sheet31%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

50%
25%
Failed to Score

Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).

25%

Goal Scoring

Goal Scoringattacking output
88
1.50
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.13
75%
Scored > 0.575%

Share of matches where the team scored at least once.

75%
88%
Over 1.569%

Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.

50%
75%
Over 2.544%

Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.

13%
25%
Over 3.519%

Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.

13%
63%
BTTS44%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

25%
38%
BTTS & Win

Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.

0%
38%
Scored Both Halves31%

Share of matches with a goal in both the 1st and 2nd half.

25%

Defensive Solidity

Defensive Soliditygoals & shots conceded
88
1.63
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

0.63
14.63
Avg Shots Conceded

Total shots faced per match — defensive pressure (> 17.5/match is heavy siege).

7.38
5.13
Avg SoT Conceded

Shots on target faced per match — quality of chances given up (> 5.5 is severe).

1.63
3.63
Avg Saves

Goalkeeper saves per match (> 4.5 means the keeper is doing heavy lifting).

0.88
71%
Save %62%

Share of opponent shots on target stopped by the keeper.

54%
13%
Clean Sheet31%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

50%

xG Trends

xG TrendsEWMA-smoothed performance
88
1.49
EWMAxG For

Smoothed expected goals created per match — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.

1.60
1.66
EWMAxG Against

Smoothed expected goals conceded per match — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.

1.34
-0.17
EWMAxG Diff

Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.

0.27
-0.13
EWMAFinishing Edge

Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.

-0.16
0.11
EWMAxG per Shot

Average chance quality per attempt — 0.10 is mid, 0.15+ means the team only shoots from dangerous spots.

0.10

Shots Quality

Shots Qualityvolume & accuracy
88
13.13
Avg Shots

Total shots per match — pure attacking volume (> 16.5/match is elite).

18.38
4.63
Avg Shots on Target

Shots on target per match — strikes the keeper had to handle (> 5.5/match is heavy).

5.00
9.63
Avg Shots in Box

Shots taken from inside the penalty area — proximity to goal (> 8.5/match means consistent box presence).

12.50
73%
Box Shot %71%

Share of shots taken from inside the box — chance-selection quality. Mid sits ~60%, elite > 75%.

68%
35%
On-Target %31%

Share of shots that hit the target — striking accuracy. Mid ~33%, elite > 40%.

27%
11%
Shot Conversion9%

Goals per shot taken — clinical efficiency. ~10% is league average, > 15% is elite finishing.

6%

Possession & Passing

Possession & Passingball control
88
52%
Avg Possession

Share of match time with the ball. > 55% is dominant, < 40% is reactive.

55%
82%
Pass Accuracy

Share of passes completed — distribution quality. Mid sits ~80%, elite > 88%.

85%
445.25
Avg Passes

Total passes attempted per match — distribution volume. Top sides > 550, bottom sides < 400.

494.75
-0.02
EWMAPossession Trend

Smoothed possession differential — team minus opponent. ±0.1 is normal, ±0.2 is strong dominance.

0.07

HT / FT Patterns

HT / FT Patternshalf-time vs full-time outcomes
88
25%2/8
Leading at HT25%

Share of matches the team led at halftime — fast-start signal.

25%2/8
38%3/8
Level at HT

Share of matches level at halftime — balanced or low-tempo openings.

38%3/8
38%3/8
Trailing at HT

Share of matches the team trailed at halftime — slow starts (lower is better).

38%3/8
50%4/8
HT/FT Same Outcome56%

Share of matches where the W/D/L state at halftime matched the full-time result — game-state stability.

63%5/8
100%2/2
Led at HT → Won100%

Of matches led at HT, share converted into a full-time win — closing strength.

100%2/2
33%1/3
Trailed at HT → Recovered33%

Of matches trailing at HT, share rescued to a draw or win — comeback resilience.

33%1/3

Goal Timing

Goal Timingwhen goals happen
events 8/88/888
8%
0-15'10%

Hot starts — share of the team's goals scored in the opening 15 minutes.

13%
23%
16-30'24%

Early control — share scored between the 16th and 30th minute.

25%
8%
31-45'10%

Pre-HT push — share scored in the run-up to halftime.

13%
23%
46-60'18%

Restart wave — share scored in the first 15 minutes after HT.

13%
15%
61-75'20%

Game-state shift — share scored between minutes 61 and 75.

25%
23%
76-90+'18%

Late-game finishers — share scored from the 76th minute onwards (incl. stoppage time).

13%

First-Goal Edge

First-Goal Edgewho strikes first
events 8/88/888
50%4/8
Scored First56%

Share of matches where the team opened the scoring — fast-start signal.

63%5/8
50%4/8
Conceded First

Share of matches where the team conceded the opening goal (lower is better).

38%3/8
75%3/4
Win when Scoring First78%

Of matches the team scored first, share converted into a win — closing strength after the opener.

80%4/5
25%1/4
Win when Conceding First13%

Of matches conceding first, share rescued into a win — comeback strength.

0%0/3
25'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Scored

Average minute of the team's first goal — earlier means faster starters.

41'
16'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Conceded

Average minute of the first goal conceded — later is better (defense holds longer).

13'

Late-Game Strength

Late-Game Strengthafter the 75th minute
events 8/88/888
38%3/8
Scored after 75'25%

Share of matches with a late goal scored by the team — late finishers signal.

13%1/8
38%3/8
Conceded after 75'

Share of matches the team conceded a late goal — late-game vulnerability (lower is better).

13%1/8
67%2/3
Lead Saved after 75'83%

Of matches leading at 75', share closed out for a win — closing strength.

100%4/4
33%1/3
Lead Lost after 75'

Of matches leading at 75', share dropped to a draw or loss — late-game collapse risk.

0%0/4
0%0/8
Any Goal in Stoppage Time

Share of matches with any goal in stoppage time (90+) — late-drama frequency.

0%0/8

Set Pieces

Set Piecespenalty / own-goal share
events 8/88/888
85%11/13
Open-Play Share80%

Of the team's scored goals, share from open play — non-set-piece scoring quality.

75%6/8
8%1/13
Penalty Share

Of the team's scored goals, share from penalty kicks — penalty dependency.

25%2/8
8%1/13
Opp Own-Goal Bonus

Of the team's scored goals, share that were opponent own-goals — pressure / fortune.

0%0/8
0%0/12
Penalty Conceded Share

Of conceded goals, share from opponent penalties — defensive discipline (lower is better).

0%0/6
0%0/12
Own-Goal Cost

Of conceded goals, share that were the team's own goals — pressure-induced errors (lower is better).

17%1/6

Corners

Cornersset-piece pressure
88
4.50
Avg Corners For

Average corners won per match — attacking territorial pressure (> 5.5 is heavy).

7.38
5.63
Avg Corners Against

Average corners conceded per match — territorial pressure faced (lower is better).

3.75
44%
Corner Share55%

Share of total corners in the team's matches that went to the team — territorial dominance ratio.

66%
-0.46
EWMACorners Diff

Smoothed corner differential per match — long-term territorial advantage (±2 is strong).

1.44
63%5/8
Match Corners > 8.575%

Share of matches with total corners > 8.5 (Over 8.5 line) — high-tempo encounter signal.

88%7/8
63%5/8
Match Corners > 9.556%

Share of matches with total corners > 9.5 (Over 9.5 line).

50%4/8
38%3/8
Match Corners > 10.544%

Share of matches with total corners > 10.5 (Over 10.5 line) — corner-heavy clashes only.

50%4/8

Cards & Discipline

Cards & Disciplineyellows, reds & fouls
events 8/88/888
1.88
Avg Yellow Cards

Yellow cards picked up per match — discipline signal (lower is better).

1.25
0%0/8
Red Card Match Rate

Share of matches with at least one red card to the team — sending-off risk.

0%0/8
11.13
Avg Fouls

Fouls committed per match — aggression / tactical-foul tendency (lower is calmer).

9.50
86%6/7
Match Cards > 3.576%

Share of matches with total card points (both teams, yellow=1 / red=2, 2Y→R counted as 2) > 3.5 — Over 3.5 line.

67%4/6
7/86/8
57%4/7
Match Cards > 4.562%

Share of matches with total card points > 4.5 — Over 4.5 line.

67%4/6
7/86/8
71%
Cards in 2nd Half

Share of card events that occur after halftime — late-discipline tendency.

49%

Venue Edge

Venue EdgeWatford at home · Middlesbrough on the road
44
2.50
PPG at Venue

Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.

1.50
75%3/4
Win Rate63%

Share of sampled matches won.

50%2/4
0%0/4
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

50%2/4
2.00
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

0.75
0.75
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

0.50
25%1/4
Clean Sheet38%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

50%2/4
75%3/4
BTTS38%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

0%0/4
75%3/4
Over 2.538%

Share of venue matches with total goals > 2.5.

0%0/4
1.75
EWMAAttack xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG created at venue — long-term attacking strength in this fixture's venue context.

1.43
1.06
EWMADefense xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG conceded at venue — defensive strength in this fixture's venue context (lower is better).

1.29