Ligue 1·
Regular Season - 20·02/02/2025·09:00
Toulouse
Toulouse
LDWLW
1-1
Finished
HT0-1
Nice
Nice
DWLLW
📍 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Season statsLigue 1
Toulouse19matchesNice19matches

Every panel below reflects each team's matches in Ligue 1.

Coverage varies by leaguetop-tier competitions have richer per-match data; lower divisions and smaller leagues track fewer metrics, so some panels may be sparse or missing entirely.
Pre-match snapshotevery value reflects each team's state going into kick-off — frozen before the match starts, not updated live.

Overall

Overallteam-strength snapshot
53%
Overall

Composite team strength — average of LTQ and Hype.

58%
1621
ELO

Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.

1689
52%
LTQ

Long-term quality across all competitions.

59%
54%
Hype

Short-term fixture buzz / excitement signal.

57%
1.91
Momentum

Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).

2.36

Match Outcome

Match Outcomeresults breakdown
1919
1.32
Points per Game

Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).

1.74
37%
Win Rate

Share of sampled matches won.

47%
21%
Draw Rate

Share of sampled matches that ended level.

32%
42%
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

21%
42%
Clean Sheet32%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

21%
26%
Failed to Score

Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).

11%

Goal Scoring

Goal Scoringattacking output
1919
1.05
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

2.00
74%
Scored > 0.582%

Share of matches where the team scored at least once.

89%
79%
Over 1.584%

Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.

89%
42%
Over 2.553%

Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.

63%
5%
Over 3.521%

Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.

37%
42%
BTTS58%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

74%
5%
BTTS & Win

Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.

32%
0%
Scored Both Halves13%

Share of matches with a goal in both the 1st and 2nd half.

26%

Defensive Solidity

Defensive Soliditygoals & shots conceded
1919
1.11
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.32
9.33
Avg Shots Conceded

Total shots faced per match — defensive pressure (> 17.5/match is heavy siege).

13.95
18/19
2.89
Avg SoT Conceded

Shots on target faced per match — quality of chances given up (> 5.5 is severe).

5.42
18/19
1.83
Avg Saves

Goalkeeper saves per match (> 4.5 means the keeper is doing heavy lifting).

3.95
18/19
63%
Save %68%

Share of opponent shots on target stopped by the keeper.

73%
18/19
42%
Clean Sheet32%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

21%

xG Trends

xG TrendsEWMA-smoothed performance
1919
1.27
EWMAxG For

Smoothed expected goals created per match — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.

1.58
0.98
EWMAxG Against

Smoothed expected goals conceded per match — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.

1.20
0.29
EWMAxG Diff

Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.

0.38
-0.15
EWMAFinishing Edge

Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.

-0.03
0.10
EWMAxG per Shot

Average chance quality per attempt — 0.10 is mid, 0.15+ means the team only shoots from dangerous spots.

0.11

Shots Quality

Shots Qualityvolume & accuracy
1919
11.78
Avg Shots

Total shots per match — pure attacking volume (> 16.5/match is elite).

13.74
18/19
4.22
Avg Shots on Target

Shots on target per match — strikes the keeper had to handle (> 5.5/match is heavy).

5.68
18/19
8.67
Avg Shots in Box

Shots taken from inside the penalty area — proximity to goal (> 8.5/match means consistent box presence).

10.16
18/19
74%
Box Shot %74%

Share of shots taken from inside the box — chance-selection quality. Mid sits ~60%, elite > 75%.

74%
18/19
36%
On-Target %39%

Share of shots that hit the target — striking accuracy. Mid ~33%, elite > 40%.

41%
18/19
9%
Shot Conversion12%

Goals per shot taken — clinical efficiency. ~10% is league average, > 15% is elite finishing.

15%
18/19

Possession & Passing

Possession & Passingball control
1919
46%
Avg Possession

Share of match time with the ball. > 55% is dominant, < 40% is reactive.

46%
18/19
79%
Pass Accuracy

Share of passes completed — distribution quality. Mid sits ~80%, elite > 88%.

83%
18/19
405.50
Avg Passes

Total passes attempted per match — distribution volume. Top sides > 550, bottom sides < 400.

413.63
18/19
-0.04
EWMAPossession Trend

Smoothed possession differential — team minus opponent. ±0.1 is normal, ±0.2 is strong dominance.

-0.04

HT / FT Patterns

HT / FT Patternshalf-time vs full-time outcomes
1919
21%4/19
Leading at HT34%

Share of matches the team led at halftime — fast-start signal.

47%9/19
53%10/19
Level at HT

Share of matches level at halftime — balanced or low-tempo openings.

32%6/19
26%5/19
Trailing at HT

Share of matches the team trailed at halftime — slow starts (lower is better).

21%4/19
53%10/19
HT/FT Same Outcome55%

Share of matches where the W/D/L state at halftime matched the full-time result — game-state stability.

58%11/19
75%3/4
Led at HT → Won71%

Of matches led at HT, share converted into a full-time win — closing strength.

67%6/9
20%1/5
Trailed at HT → Recovered35%

Of matches trailing at HT, share rescued to a draw or win — comeback resilience.

50%2/4

Goal Timing

Goal Timingwhen goals happen
events 19/1919/191919
19%
0-15'15%

Hot starts — share of the team's goals scored in the opening 15 minutes.

11%
14%
16-30'20%

Early control — share scored between the 16th and 30th minute.

25%
14%
31-45'18%

Pre-HT push — share scored in the run-up to halftime.

22%
14%
46-60'14%

Restart wave — share scored in the first 15 minutes after HT.

14%
19%
61-75'18%

Game-state shift — share scored between minutes 61 and 75.

17%
19%
76-90+'15%

Late-game finishers — share scored from the 76th minute onwards (incl. stoppage time).

11%

First-Goal Edge

First-Goal Edgewho strikes first
events 19/1919/191919
53%9/17
Scored First57%

Share of matches where the team opened the scoring — fast-start signal.

61%11/18
47%8/17
Conceded First

Share of matches where the team conceded the opening goal (lower is better).

39%7/18
67%6/9
Win when Scoring First61%

Of matches the team scored first, share converted into a win — closing strength after the opener.

55%6/11
13%1/8
Win when Conceding First28%

Of matches conceding first, share rescued into a win — comeback strength.

43%3/7
43'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Scored

Average minute of the team's first goal — earlier means faster starters.

28'
31'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Conceded

Average minute of the first goal conceded — later is better (defense holds longer).

27'

Late-Game Strength

Late-Game Strengthafter the 75th minute
events 19/1919/191919
21%4/19
Scored after 75'24%

Share of matches with a late goal scored by the team — late finishers signal.

26%5/19
26%5/19
Conceded after 75'

Share of matches the team conceded a late goal — late-game vulnerability (lower is better).

16%3/19
83%5/6
Lead Saved after 75'86%

Of matches leading at 75', share closed out for a win — closing strength.

89%8/9
17%1/6
Lead Lost after 75'

Of matches leading at 75', share dropped to a draw or loss — late-game collapse risk.

11%1/9
16%3/19
Any Goal in Stoppage Time

Share of matches with any goal in stoppage time (90+) — late-drama frequency.

16%3/19

Set Pieces

Set Piecespenalty / own-goal share
events 19/1919/191919
81%17/21
Open-Play Share86%

Of the team's scored goals, share from open play — non-set-piece scoring quality.

92%33/36
10%2/21
Penalty Share

Of the team's scored goals, share from penalty kicks — penalty dependency.

8%3/36
10%2/21
Opp Own-Goal Bonus

Of the team's scored goals, share that were opponent own-goals — pressure / fortune.

0%0/36
0%0/20
Penalty Conceded Share

Of conceded goals, share from opponent penalties — defensive discipline (lower is better).

7%2/27
5%1/20
Own-Goal Cost

Of conceded goals, share that were the team's own goals — pressure-induced errors (lower is better).

7%2/27

Corners

Cornersset-piece pressure
1919
4.44
Avg Corners For

Average corners won per match — attacking territorial pressure (> 5.5 is heavy).

4.63
18/19
3.83
Avg Corners Against

Average corners conceded per match — territorial pressure faced (lower is better).

6.05
18/19
54%
Corner Share49%

Share of total corners in the team's matches that went to the team — territorial dominance ratio.

43%
18/19
1.35
EWMACorners Diff

Smoothed corner differential per match — long-term territorial advantage (±2 is strong).

-1.08
33%6/18
Match Corners > 8.548%

Share of matches with total corners > 8.5 (Over 8.5 line) — high-tempo encounter signal.

63%12/19
18/19
33%6/18
Match Corners > 9.543%

Share of matches with total corners > 9.5 (Over 9.5 line).

53%10/19
18/19
22%4/18
Match Corners > 10.537%

Share of matches with total corners > 10.5 (Over 10.5 line) — corner-heavy clashes only.

53%10/19
18/19

Cards & Discipline

Cards & Disciplineyellows, reds & fouls
events 19/1919/191919
1.61
Avg Yellow Cards

Yellow cards picked up per match — discipline signal (lower is better).

2.00
18/19
6%1/18
Red Card Match Rate

Share of matches with at least one red card to the team — sending-off risk.

11%2/19
18/19
13.83
Avg Fouls

Fouls committed per match — aggression / tactical-foul tendency (lower is calmer).

10.68
18/19
63%10/16
Match Cards > 3.569%

Share of matches with total card points (both teams, yellow=1 / red=2, 2Y→R counted as 2) > 3.5 — Over 3.5 line.

75%12/16
16/1916/19
50%8/16
Match Cards > 4.547%

Share of matches with total card points > 4.5 — Over 4.5 line.

44%7/16
16/1916/19
60%
Cards in 2nd Half

Share of card events that occur after halftime — late-discipline tendency.

63%

Venue Edge

Venue EdgeToulouse at home · Nice on the road
1010
1.40
PPG at Venue

Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.

1.20
40%4/10
Win Rate35%

Share of sampled matches won.

30%3/10
40%4/10
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

40%4/10
1.20
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.50
1.10
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.60
40%4/10
Clean Sheet30%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

20%2/10
60%6/10
BTTS65%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 2.555%

Share of venue matches with total goals > 2.5.

60%6/10
1.47
EWMAAttack xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG created at venue — long-term attacking strength in this fixture's venue context.

1.61
0.92
EWMADefense xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG conceded at venue — defensive strength in this fixture's venue context (lower is better).

1.35