What is xG in football? Expected goals explained, with live numbers
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What xG means
Each shot gets a number between zero and one: the chance that a shot like it becomes a goal, judged by where and how it was taken. A long-range shot with defenders in the way is worth a small share of a goal. A close-range shot from the middle with only the goalkeeper to beat is worth a large one.
A penalty is worth about three in four, because roughly three penalties in four end in a goal, so a single penalty adds a big share of a goal to a team's xG.
A team's xG for a match is the sum of the chances of all of its shots. The two teams' xG are two separate numbers, and the xG of the match is both teams added together. Because every shot adds a fraction of a goal, xG is usually a decimal such as 1.4 rather than a whole number of goals.
xG comes from the shot data of a match. It exists only for matches that have match statistics, and not every match has them: a match without xG data is left out of the xG numbers on this page, never counted as zero, and a league shows no xG number until enough of its matches have xG data.
xG against goals
A team that scores more goals than its xG turned its chances into goals more often than a typical team would have: it finished well, or it was fortunate. A team that scores fewer goals than its xG created good chances and did not take them, or met a goalkeeper in good form.
The gap between goals and xG is part skill and part luck, and in one match luck can be most of it: one shot is one chance, and it either goes in or it does not.
Over many matches the luck evens out. Goals and xG move much closer together as matches add up, which is why xG is read over a season or a run of matches rather than from one game.
xG is a description of the chances created so far. It does not say what will happen in the next match.
xG per match, league by league
46 of the 51 leagues have xG data this season, among those of Pro Finder's “Only featured” filter. The 20 with the most xG per match are below.
xG per match is the average xG of a match, both teams together, over the matches that have match statistics with xG recorded; the first column shows the matches with statistics that league has, so the xG average is based on that many matches or fewer. Goals per match counts every finished match, at full time: regular time plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are not in our numbers. Season to date, or the last completed season between seasons.
| League | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Rank 1 BundesligaGermany | 72 | 3.49 | 3.50 |
Rank 2 EredivisieNetherlands | 99 | 3.37 | 3.82 |
Rank 3 Liga IRomania | 108 | 3.36 | 2.70 |
Rank 4 Super LeagueSwitzerland | 72 | 3.34 | 3.76 |
Rank 5 BundesligaAustria | 66 | 3.33 | 3.18 |
Rank 6 League TwoEngland | 152 | 3.20 | 2.68 |
Rank 6 Ligue 1France | 81 | 3.20 | 3.04 |
Rank 8 Pro LeagueSaudi Arabia | 103 | 3.19 | 3.03 |
Rank 9 1. LigTurkey | 128 | 3.16 | 2.78 |
Rank 10 Super LigaSerbia | 95 | 3.15 | 2.59 |
Rank 10 Challenger Pro LeagueBelgium | 43 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
Rank 12 SuperligaDenmark | 78 | 3.13 | 3.06 |
Rank 12 PremiershipScotland | 69 | 3.13 | 2.83 |
Rank 14 Eerste DivisieNetherlands | 130 | 3.12 | 3.57 |
Rank 14 EkstraklasaPoland | 115 | 3.12 | 2.98 |
Rank 16 Serie AItaly | 100 | 3.11 | 3.18 |
Rank 17 EliteserienNorway | 200 | 3.07 | 3.26 |
Rank 18 2. BundesligaGermany | 90 | 3.05 | 3.00 |
Rank 19 J1 LeagueJapan | 130 | 3.04 | 3.01 |
Rank 20 Major League SoccerUSA | 493 | 3.03 | 3.26 |
xG per match covers only the matches that have xG, Goals per match covers every finished match, so the two averages come from different sets of matches. The table is sorted by xG per match, and each column can be sorted.
Where to see xG on ProBettingHub
Where you see xG depends on the page, and on whether you are signed out, on a free account or on Pro. A free account sees what a signed-out visitor sees; Pro opens the rest.
Leagues page. The average xG per match of every league that has xG data is in the Scoring view of the leagues table, open to everyone.
A match's Stats tab. The xG Trends card shows each team's xG over its recent matches, open to everyone at the automatic settings, for matches that have xG recorded. Pro can change the settings. On a match's Overview, the xG vs real goals card (the xG Reality Tracker), xG against real goals for both sides, is Pro.
A league's pages. The xG card on the league's Stats tab and the xGF, xGA and xGD columns of its tables are Pro; everyone else sees them locked.
Pro Finder. The xG columns and the xG filters are Pro: for everyone else the cells show locked and setting a filter value asks for an upgrade.
Use it in ProBettingHub
- Compare leaguesOpen the leagues table and switch to the Scoring view for the average xG per match of every league.
- Goals by leagueThe other side of xG against goals: how many goals each league has per match and how often matches pass each goals line.
- Pro FinderPROAdd xG columns and filters to the day's matches and sort them by any of them.
Questions and answers
- What is xG in football?
- xG, or expected goals, is the chance that a shot becomes a goal, given where and how it was taken. Add up the chances of all of a team's shots in a match and you have its xG for that match. It describes the chances created, not the score.
- What does a high xG mean?
- A high xG means a team took shots that, taken together, were worth many goals: it created a lot of good chances. It is not the result: a team can have a high xG and still lose, because xG counts the chances and the score counts the goals.
- What is the difference between xG and goals?
- Goals are what happened; xG is what the chances were worth. A team that scores more goals than its xG finished its chances better than average in that match. A team that scores fewer goals than its xG finished them worse. Over many matches the two come much closer together.
- Where can I find xG stats on ProBettingHub?
- The leagues page shows the average xG per match of every league that has xG data in its Scoring view, open to everyone, signed out or signed in. A match page's Stats tab shows each team's xG trend to everyone at its automatic settings; Pro can change the settings. Pro adds the xG vs real goals card (xG Reality Tracker) on a match page, the xG card on a league's Stats tab, the xGF, xGA and xGD columns of the league tables, and the xG columns and filters in Pro Finder. A free account sees what a signed-out visitor sees.