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Away Favored
Jun 4, 2026, 12:02 PM
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A local derby with massive qualification stakes, where Stockholm Internazionale aims to repeat their recent 6-1 demolition of a winless Stocksund side. The hosts are desperate to snap a ten-match winless run, but they face a psychological mountain against a team that has won every encounter in their recent history.
Home Motivation
High
Stocksund has high motivation as they are in a knockout semi-final with a chance to reach a final despite their poor league form.
Away Motivation
High
Stockholm Internazionale enters as clear favorites in a knockout cup tie, viewing this as a primary path to success alongside their league ambitions.
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The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
2.87
Goals conceded per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.03
The visitors concede nearly three times fewer goals than the hosts on a recent-form basis, which is the primary driver of their dominance.
0%
Win rate %
Last 10 matches
40%
The hosts have not registered a victory in their last 10 matches, whereas the visitors have won 4 of their last 10.
90%
BTTS %
Home/Away split
70%
Both sides frequently see both teams finding the net at their respective venues, suggesting a high-scoring cup tie.
0%
Clean sheet %
Last 10 matches
20%
The hosts have failed to keep a single clean sheet in their last 10 matches, highlighting significant defensive frailties.
1253
Elo rating
Season avg
1425
The visitors hold a significant Elo advantage of over 170 points, reflecting their superior consistent quality.
80%
Over 2.5 goals %
Last 10 matches
60%
Matches involving the hosts are consistently high-scoring, with 8 of their last 10 seeing at least three goals.
Form & Streaks
Stocksund is winless in their last 10 matches across all competitions (0W, 4D, 6L).
Stockholm Internazionale has won the last 5 head-to-head meetings against Stocksund.
Stockholm Internazionale has lost only 1 of their last 10 away matches (4W, 5D, 1L).
Tactical Overview
This semi-final is defined by a massive defensive disparity, with Stockholm Internazionale trending at a 1.03 goals conceded per game recent-form average compared to a staggering 2.87 for Stocksund. While Stocksund shows offensive life, scoring 18 goals in their last 10 matches, they have failed to secure a single victory in that span (0W, 4D, 6L). The previous meeting on May 09 saw Stockholm Internazionale cruise to a 6-1 away win, highlighting their ability to exploit a Stocksund backline anchored by Charlie Jonsson that has looked vulnerable in high-scoring draws like the 3-3 against Assyriska FF. With David Fällman providing stability at the back for the visitors and Olle Edlund pulling strings in midfield, the visitors are likely to dominate possession. Stocksund's reliance on Noel Wågberg for goals is clear, but their inability to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 10 matches across all competitions suggests they will struggle to contain the visitors over 90 minutes.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
For Stocksund, Noel Wågberg is a forward listed in the 2026 squad who will be important for their attacking play. Midfielder Fabian Tristen is also a key figure in the squad, contributing to the team's midfield presence. Defender Charlie Jonsson is a notable member of the defense, crucial for organizing the backline.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Home
Key Players
For Stocksund, Noel Wågberg is a forward listed in the 2026 squad who will be important for their attacking play. Midfielder Fabian Tristen is also a key figure in the squad, contributing to the team's midfield presence. Defender Charlie Jonsson is a notable member of the defense, crucial for organizing the backline.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Away
Key Players
Stockholm Internazionale's attack could rely on Marijan Cosic, a forward listed in their 2026 squad. Midfielder Olle Edlund is also a prominent name in their roster, expected to influence the game from the middle of the park. Defensively, David Fällman is a key player, providing experience and stability at the back.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
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