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Home Favored
Jun 6, 2026, 08:03 PM
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Curaçao host Aruba in a friendly, but recent form and underlying metrics suggest this is far from a routine encounter. While the Elo ratings and model prediction heavily favor the home side, Aruba have shown a surprising ability to score on the road against decent opposition, setting up an intriguing clash of styles.
Home Motivation
Medium
Away Motivation
Medium
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
1.67
Goals scored per game
All comps (EWMA)
2.43
Aruba's higher recent-form scoring rate (2.43 vs 1.67) suggests they have the offensive punch to trouble Curaçao.
13.07
Total shots per game
All comps (EWMA)
7.00
Curaçao's significantly higher shot volume (13.07 vs 7.00) indicates greater attacking intent and territorial control.
3.53
Shots on target against
All comps (EWMA)
10.00
Curaçao's defense is much tighter, facing only 3.53 shots on target per game in recent form compared to Aruba's 10.00.
3.78
Corners won per game
All comps (EWMA)
2.00
Curaçao's superiority in corners won (3.78 vs 2.00) points to sustained attacking pressure and ability to win set-piece opportunities.
52%
Possession %
All comps (EWMA)
28%
Curaçao's commanding possession advantage (52% vs 28%) indicates they will likely control the tempo and dictate play.
2.4
PPG (3/1/0)
All comps at venue (last 10)
1.2
In all competitions at this venue over the last 10 matches, Curaçao has averaged a much higher 2.4 points per game (7W 3D 0L) than Aruba has averaged away (1.2 PPG with 3W 3D 4L).
Form & Streaks
Curaçao are unbeaten in their last 10 home matches across all competitions, with 7 wins and 3 draws.
Aruba have won 4 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
Aruba have lost 4 of their last 10 away matches across all competitions.
Tactical Overview
Curaçao enter this friendly on home soil looking to build on a solid recent home record, where they are unbeaten in their last 10 matches in all competitions at this venue, winning 7 of those encounters. Their defensive solidity at home is evident, conceding just 6 goals in those 10 games. They've also shown offensive threat, averaging 2.4 goals per game in that sample. However, their overall form across the last 10 matches is more mixed (3W 3D 4L), and they were recently beaten 1-4 away by Scotland. Aruba, on the other hand, have a more balanced recent record (4W 2D 4L in last 10 all comps) but their away form is less convincing (3W 3D 4L in last 10 away, conceding 19 goals in that spell). Despite a lower Elo rating, Aruba have proven they can score, averaging 2.43 goals per game in recent form, notably netting 7 goals in their last 10 away matches and scoring in 70% of those fixtures. The H2H is a slight positive for Curaçao, having won the most recent meeting 2-0.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
For Curaçao, goalkeeper Eloy Room is a key presence, having performed well under pressure in recent matches. In defense, Armando Obispo and Sherel Floranus are expected to anchor the backline, having completed full matches recently. Midfield sees the experienced duo of Juninho Bacuna and Leandro Bacuna providing crucial passing and control. Upfront, Tahith Chong is a significant attacking threat, known for his ball-carrying and creativity.
Absences
Jürgen Locadia
red card suspension awaiting FIFA decision
Home
Key Players
For Curaçao, goalkeeper Eloy Room is a key presence, having performed well under pressure in recent matches. In defense, Armando Obispo and Sherel Floranus are expected to anchor the backline, having completed full matches recently. Midfield sees the experienced duo of Juninho Bacuna and Leandro Bacuna providing crucial passing and control. Upfront, Tahith Chong is a significant attacking threat, known for his ball-carrying and creativity.
Absences
Jürgen Locadia
red card suspension awaiting FIFA decision
Away
Key Players
Aruba's individual player data is not extensively available, but their tactical setup under Marvic Bermúdez emphasizes a defensive 5-4-1 formation. This structure is designed to absorb pressure and limit space, indicating a focus on collective defensive effort. Due to the limited available information, specific key players cannot be highlighted at this time.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
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