EFL Trophy·
Southern - 2·10/28/2025·15:00
Luton
Luton
WLLLD
3-1
Finished
HT2-0
Brighton U21
Brighton U21
LLDDD
📍 Kenilworth Road, Luton, Bedfordshire

Stats below use each team's main league —League OneEngland·Premier League 2 Division OneEngland

Last 10EFL Trophy
Luton10matchesU2110matches

Not in either team's main domestic league — every panel below reflects each team's most recent matches across all competitions.

Coverage varies by leaguetop-tier competitions have richer per-match data; lower divisions and smaller leagues track fewer metrics, so some panels may be sparse or missing entirely.
Pre-match snapshotevery value reflects each team's state going into kick-off — frozen before the match starts, not updated live.

Overall

Overallteam-strength snapshot
43%
Overall

Composite team strength — average of LTQ and Hype.

42%
1422
ELO

Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.

1370
49%
LTQ

Long-term quality across all competitions.

53%
37%
Hype

Short-term fixture buzz / excitement signal.

31%
2.63
Momentum

Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).

3.26

Match Outcome

Match Outcomeresults breakdown
1010
1.30
Points per Game

Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).

1.50
40%
Win Rate

Share of sampled matches won.

40%
10%
Draw Rate

Share of sampled matches that ended level.

30%
50%
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

30%
30%
Clean Sheet25%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

20%
20%
Failed to Score

Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).

20%

Goal Scoring

Goal Scoringattacking output
1010
1.50
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.90
80%
Scored > 0.580%

Share of matches where the team scored at least once.

80%
80%
Over 1.585%

Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.

90%
60%
Over 2.565%

Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.

70%
50%
Over 3.550%

Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.

50%
50%
BTTS55%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

60%
10%
BTTS & Win

Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.

20%
30%
Scored Both Halves30%

Share of matches with a goal in both the 1st and 2nd half.

30%

Defensive Solidity

Defensive Soliditygoals & shots conceded
1010
1.60
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.40
10.00
Avg Shots Conceded

Total shots faced per match — defensive pressure (> 17.5/match is heavy siege).

0/10
4.00
Avg SoT Conceded

Shots on target faced per match — quality of chances given up (> 5.5 is severe).

0/10
2.10
Avg Saves

Goalkeeper saves per match (> 4.5 means the keeper is doing heavy lifting).

0/10
53%
Save %

Share of opponent shots on target stopped by the keeper.

0/10
30%
Clean Sheet25%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

20%

xG Trends

xG TrendsEWMA-smoothed performance
1010
0.98
EWMAxG For

Smoothed expected goals created per match — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.

1.03
1.17
EWMAxG Against

Smoothed expected goals conceded per match — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.

1.16
-0.19
EWMAxG Diff

Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.

-0.13
0.17
EWMAFinishing Edge

Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.

0.45
0.08
EWMAxG per Shot

Average chance quality per attempt — 0.10 is mid, 0.15+ means the team only shoots from dangerous spots.

0.11

Shots Quality

Shots Qualityvolume & accuracy
1010
13.30
Avg Shots

Total shots per match — pure attacking volume (> 16.5/match is elite).

0/10
4.70
Avg Shots on Target

Shots on target per match — strikes the keeper had to handle (> 5.5/match is heavy).

0/10
8.60
Avg Shots in Box

Shots taken from inside the penalty area — proximity to goal (> 8.5/match means consistent box presence).

0/10
65%
Box Shot %

Share of shots taken from inside the box — chance-selection quality. Mid sits ~60%, elite > 75%.

0/10
35%
On-Target %

Share of shots that hit the target — striking accuracy. Mid ~33%, elite > 40%.

0/10
11%
Shot Conversion

Goals per shot taken — clinical efficiency. ~10% is league average, > 15% is elite finishing.

0/10

Possession & Passing

Possession & Passingball control
1010
56%
Avg Possession

Share of match time with the ball. > 55% is dominant, < 40% is reactive.

0/10
76%
Pass Accuracy

Share of passes completed — distribution quality. Mid sits ~80%, elite > 88%.

0/10
375.20
Avg Passes

Total passes attempted per match — distribution volume. Top sides > 550, bottom sides < 400.

0/10
0.07
EWMAPossession Trend

Smoothed possession differential — team minus opponent. ±0.1 is normal, ±0.2 is strong dominance.

-0.08

HT / FT Patterns

HT / FT Patternshalf-time vs full-time outcomes
1010
30%3/10
Leading at HT30%

Share of matches the team led at halftime — fast-start signal.

30%3/10
30%3/10
Level at HT

Share of matches level at halftime — balanced or low-tempo openings.

30%3/10
40%4/10
Trailing at HT

Share of matches the team trailed at halftime — slow starts (lower is better).

40%4/10
60%6/10
HT/FT Same Outcome50%

Share of matches where the W/D/L state at halftime matched the full-time result — game-state stability.

40%4/10
100%3/3
Led at HT → Won83%

Of matches led at HT, share converted into a full-time win — closing strength.

67%2/3
25%1/4
Trailed at HT → Recovered38%

Of matches trailing at HT, share rescued to a draw or win — comeback resilience.

50%2/4

Goal Timing

Goal Timingwhen goals happen
events 10/1010/101010
13%
0-15'7%

Hot starts — share of the team's goals scored in the opening 15 minutes.

0%
20%
16-30'14%

Early control — share scored between the 16th and 30th minute.

8%
20%
31-45'18%

Pre-HT push — share scored in the run-up to halftime.

16%
13%
46-60'13%

Restart wave — share scored in the first 15 minutes after HT.

12%
0%
61-75'6%

Game-state shift — share scored between minutes 61 and 75.

12%
33%
76-90+'43%

Late-game finishers — share scored from the 76th minute onwards (incl. stoppage time).

52%

First-Goal Edge

First-Goal Edgewho strikes first
events 10/1010/101010
50%5/10
Scored First45%

Share of matches where the team opened the scoring — fast-start signal.

40%4/10
50%5/10
Conceded First

Share of matches where the team conceded the opening goal (lower is better).

60%6/10
80%4/5
Win when Scoring First78%

Of matches the team scored first, share converted into a win — closing strength after the opener.

75%3/4
0%0/5
Win when Conceding First8%

Of matches conceding first, share rescued into a win — comeback strength.

17%1/6
32'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Scored

Average minute of the team's first goal — earlier means faster starters.

40'
28'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Conceded

Average minute of the first goal conceded — later is better (defense holds longer).

30'

Late-Game Strength

Late-Game Strengthafter the 75th minute
events 10/1010/101010
40%4/10
Scored after 75'50%

Share of matches with a late goal scored by the team — late finishers signal.

60%6/10
40%4/10
Conceded after 75'

Share of matches the team conceded a late goal — late-game vulnerability (lower is better).

40%4/10
100%3/3
Lead Saved after 75'100%

Of matches leading at 75', share closed out for a win — closing strength.

100%4/4
0%0/3
Lead Lost after 75'

Of matches leading at 75', share dropped to a draw or loss — late-game collapse risk.

0%0/4
10%1/10
Any Goal in Stoppage Time

Share of matches with any goal in stoppage time (90+) — late-drama frequency.

10%1/10

Set Pieces

Set Piecespenalty / own-goal share
events 10/1010/101010
73%11/15
Open-Play Share71%

Of the team's scored goals, share from open play — non-set-piece scoring quality.

68%17/25
27%4/15
Penalty Share

Of the team's scored goals, share from penalty kicks — penalty dependency.

32%8/25
0%0/15
Opp Own-Goal Bonus

Of the team's scored goals, share that were opponent own-goals — pressure / fortune.

0%0/25
6%1/16
Penalty Conceded Share

Of conceded goals, share from opponent penalties — defensive discipline (lower is better).

30%6/20
0%0/16
Own-Goal Cost

Of conceded goals, share that were the team's own goals — pressure-induced errors (lower is better).

0%0/20

Corners

Cornersset-piece pressure
1010
7.60
Avg Corners For

Average corners won per match — attacking territorial pressure (> 5.5 is heavy).

0/10
3.60
Avg Corners Against

Average corners conceded per match — territorial pressure faced (lower is better).

0/10
68%
Corner Share

Share of total corners in the team's matches that went to the team — territorial dominance ratio.

0/10
2.87
EWMACorners Diff

Smoothed corner differential per match — long-term territorial advantage (±2 is strong).

0.00
80%8/10
Match Corners > 8.5

Share of matches with total corners > 8.5 (Over 8.5 line) — high-tempo encounter signal.

0/0
0/10
60%6/10
Match Corners > 9.5

Share of matches with total corners > 9.5 (Over 9.5 line).

0/0
0/10
50%5/10
Match Corners > 10.5

Share of matches with total corners > 10.5 (Over 10.5 line) — corner-heavy clashes only.

0/0
0/10

Cards & Discipline

Cards & Disciplineyellows, reds & fouls
events 10/1010/101010
1.50
Avg Yellow Cards

Yellow cards picked up per match — discipline signal (lower is better).

0/10
0%0/10
Red Card Match Rate

Share of matches with at least one red card to the team — sending-off risk.

0/0
0/10
12.30
Avg Fouls

Fouls committed per match — aggression / tactical-foul tendency (lower is calmer).

0/10
57%4/7
Match Cards > 3.564%

Share of matches with total card points (both teams, yellow=1 / red=2, 2Y→R counted as 2) > 3.5 — Over 3.5 line.

70%7/10
7/10
14%1/7
Match Cards > 4.532%

Share of matches with total card points > 4.5 — Over 4.5 line.

50%5/10
7/10
43%
Cards in 2nd Half

Share of card events that occur after halftime — late-discipline tendency.

63%

Venue Edge

Venue EdgeLuton at home · U21 on the road
47
1.50
PPG at Venue

Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.

1.14
50%2/4
Win Rate39%

Share of sampled matches won.

29%2/7
50%2/4
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

43%3/7
1.75
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.57
1.50
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.71
25%1/4
Clean Sheet20%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

14%1/7
50%2/4
BTTS54%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

57%4/7
50%2/4
Over 2.561%

Share of venue matches with total goals > 2.5.

71%5/7
1.15
EWMAAttack xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG created at venue — long-term attacking strength in this fixture's venue context.

0.95
0.74
EWMADefense xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG conceded at venue — defensive strength in this fixture's venue context (lower is better).

1.24