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Lecce vs Genoa - 1X2 Stats & Probability Analysis

Win Draw Win Probability Models & Match Outcome Analysis

Italy

Italy

Serie A

Lecce

W
L
W
D
D
L

24 May 2026

18:45 (UTC+0)

(1
-
0)

1

-

0

FT

Genoa

L
D
D
L
W
W

ODDS ANALYSIS

Odds & Probability

Fulltime

Home

1.90
-

Draw

3.26
-

Away

4.47
-

1st Half

Home

2.49
-

Draw

2.01
-

Away

5.13
-

2nd Half

Home

2.32
-

Draw

2.26
-

Away

4.49
-

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MATCH EVIDENCE

Form & Performance

Italy

Serie A

All matches

Home only

/

Away only

Last 3

Most recent trend

67%

43%

17%

77%

Home only

Away only

Last 6

Short-term form

52%

55%

42%

55%

Home only

Away only

Last 10

Medium-term form

42%

53%

30%

52%

Home only

Away only

Last 20

Reliable baseline

33%

54%

38%

51%

Home only

Away only

Season

Full season average

36%

45%

36%

48%

Home only

Away only

Total Goals

average per game

Italy

Serie A

Poor
Attack
Poor
Good
Defense
Good

Last 6

Recent form across all competitions

Difference

-0.17
1
1.17

Scored

Conceded

0.83
1

Difference

-0.17

Home vs Away Last 6

Home games only vs away games only

Difference

-0.67
0.83
1.5

Scored

Conceded

1.33
1.33

Difference

0

Last 10 (Trimmed)

Average of last 10 — highest & lowest removed

Difference

-0.62
0.75
1.38

Scored

Conceded

0.88
1.25

Difference

-0.38

Last 20

Larger sample for reliable trends

Difference

-0.6
0.75
1.35

Scored

Conceded

1.2
1.15

Difference

+0.05

Season

Full season averages

Difference

-0.62
0.73
1.35

Scored

Conceded

1.11
1.35

Difference

-0.24

League Average

Total Goals Momentum

Normal

Conservative (less goals)

Normal

Epic

Home vs Away Strength

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Total Goals

average per game

Italy

Serie A

Poor
Attack
Poor
Good
Defense
Good

Last 6

Recent form across all competitions

Difference

-0.17
1
1.17

Scored

Conceded

0.83
1

Difference

-0.17

Home vs Away Last 6

Home games only vs away games only

Difference

-0.67
0.83
1.5

Scored

Conceded

1.33
1.33

Difference

0

Last 10 (Trimmed)

Average of last 10 — highest & lowest removed

Difference

-0.62
0.75
1.38

Scored

Conceded

0.88
1.25

Difference

-0.38

Last 20

Larger sample for reliable trends

Difference

-0.6
0.75
1.35

Scored

Conceded

1.2
1.15

Difference

+0.05

Season

Full season averages

Difference

-0.62
0.73
1.35

Scored

Conceded

1.11
1.35

Difference

-0.24

League Average

Total Goals Momentum

Normal

Conservative (less goals)

Normal

Epic

Form & Performance

Italy

Serie A

All matches

Home only

/

Away only

Last 3

Most recent trend

67%

43%

17%

77%

Home only

Away only

Last 6

Short-term form

52%

55%

42%

55%

Home only

Away only

Last 10

Medium-term form

42%

53%

30%

52%

Home only

Away only

Last 20

Reliable baseline

33%

54%

38%

51%

Home only

Away only

Season

Full season average

36%

45%

36%

48%

Home only

Away only

Home vs Away Strength

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HEAD TO HEAD

Head to Head

Last 365 days

1 Match

(0%)

0

Wins

Draws: 1

0

(0%)

1

(100%)

Avg Goals per Match

0
0

Scored

Conceded

0
0

Lecce

Genoa

All Matches

13 Matches

(8%)

1

Wins

Draws: 5

7

(54%)

1

(8%)

5

(38%)

7

(54%)

Avg Goals per Match

1
1.85

Scored

Conceded

1.85
1

Lecce

Genoa

Italy | Serie A

23 Aug 25

Genoa

0
0

Lecce

10mo ago

Italy | Serie A

14 Mar 25

Genoa

2
1

Lecce

1y ago

Italy | Serie A

05 Jan 25

Lecce

0
0

Genoa

1y ago

Fatigue Calendar

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

04/05
05/05
06/05
07/05
08/05

Home

0:1

09/05

10/05
11/05
12/05
13/05
14/05
15/05
16/05

Away

2:3

17/05

18/05
19/05
20/05
21/05
22/05
23/05

Home

1:0

24/05

25/05
26/05
27/05
28/05
29/05
30/05
31/05

Head to Head

Last 365 days

1 Match

(0%)

0

Wins

Draws: 1

0

(0%)

1

(100%)

Avg Goals per Match

0
0

Scored

Conceded

0
0

Lecce

Genoa

All Matches

13 Matches

(8%)

1

Wins

Draws: 5

7

(54%)

1

(8%)

5

(38%)

7

(54%)

Avg Goals per Match

1
1.85

Scored

Conceded

1.85
1

Lecce

Genoa

Italy | Serie A

23 Aug 25

Genoa

0
0

Lecce

10mo ago

Italy | Serie A

14 Mar 25

Genoa

2
1

Lecce

1y ago

Italy | Serie A

05 Jan 25

Lecce

0
0

Genoa

1y ago

Fatigue Calendar

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

04/05
05/05
06/05
07/05
08/05

Home

0:1

09/05

10/05
11/05
12/05
13/05
14/05
15/05
16/05

Away

2:3

17/05

18/05
19/05
20/05
21/05
22/05
23/05

Home

1:0

24/05

25/05
26/05
27/05
28/05
29/05
30/05
31/05

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Competition

Period

Side

FT/HT

MATCH EVIDENCE

Goals History

Lecce

Genoa

Last Matches (1X2)

Fulltime

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

24/05

18:45

Lecce
Genoa
1
0

H

1.90

D

3.26

A

4.47

W
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

17/05

18:45

Sassuolo
Lecce
2
3

H

2.66

D

3.14

A

2.75

W
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

09/05

18:45

Lecce
Juventus
0
1

H

8.31

D

4.44

A

1.41

L
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

01/05

18:45

Pisa
Lecce
1
2

H

3.52

D

2.97

A

2.31

W
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

25/04

18:45

Hellas Verona
Lecce
0
0

H

2.49

D

2.91

A

3.18

D
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

20/04

18:45

Lecce
Fiorentina
1
1

H

3.56

D

3.24

A

2.14

D
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

12/04

16:00

Bologna
Lecce
2
0

H

1.86

D

3.24

A

4.84

L
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Lecce

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

24/05

18:45

Lecce
Genoa
1
0

H

1.90

D

3.26

A

4.47

W
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

17/05

18:45

Sassuolo
Lecce
2
3

H

2.66

D

3.14

A

2.75

W
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

09/05

18:45

Lecce
Juventus
0
1

H

8.31

D

4.44

A

1.41

L
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

01/05

18:45

Pisa
Lecce
1
2

H

3.52

D

2.97

A

2.31

W
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

25/04

18:45

Hellas Verona
Lecce
0
0

H

2.49

D

2.91

A

3.18

D
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

20/04

18:45

Lecce
Fiorentina
1
1

H

3.56

D

3.24

A

2.14

D
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

12/04

16:00

Bologna
Lecce
2
0

H

1.86

D

3.24

A

4.84

L
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Genoa

Date
Teams
Odds
Result
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

24/05

18:45

Lecce
Genoa
1
0

H

1.90

D

3.26

A

4.47

L
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

17/05

10:00

Genoa
AC Milan
1
2

H

5.10

D

3.77

A

1.68

L
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

10/05

13:00

Fiorentina
Genoa
0
0

H

1.94

D

3.37

A

4.14

D
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

02/05

18:45

Atalanta
Genoa
0
0

H

1.51

D

4.27

A

6.14

D
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

26/04

13:00

Genoa
Como
0
2

H

4.81

D

3.71

A

1.74

L
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

19/04

16:00

Pisa
Genoa
1
2

H

3.07

D

2.99

A

2.52

W
Italy

Italy | Serie A

FT

12/04

10:30

Genoa
Sassuolo
2
1

H

2.17

D

3.22

A

3.55

W
Wins
Draws
Losses
Easy
Average
Hard

Lineups

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 1.78 per game

Low Team Rotation!
Rare lineup changes boost chemistry but may cause fatigue

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

99

W. Cheddira

6.6
M

Midfielders

20

Y. Ramadani

7.2
L

79

O. Ngom

6.3
L

50

S. Pierotti

6.5
L

29

L. Coulibaly

6.7
M

19

L. Banda

7.2
L

Defenders

17

D. Veiga

6.9
L

5

J. Siebert

7.2
L

44

Tiago Gabriel

6.9
L

25

A. Gallo

7.7
L

Goalkeepers

30

W. Falcone

7.2
L
Injuries/Absence

Others

M. Berisha

Thigh Injury

-

R. Sottil

Back Injury

H

Lecce

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 1.78 per game

Low Team Rotation!
Rare lineup changes boost chemistry but may cause fatigue

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

99

W. Cheddira

6.6
M

Midfielders

20

Y. Ramadani

7.2
L

79

O. Ngom

6.3
L

50

S. Pierotti

6.5
L

29

L. Coulibaly

6.7
M

19

L. Banda

7.2
L

Defenders

17

D. Veiga

6.9
L

5

J. Siebert

7.2
L

44

Tiago Gabriel

6.9
L

25

A. Gallo

7.7
L

Goalkeepers

30

W. Falcone

7.2
L
Injuries/Absence

Others

M. Berisha

Thigh Injury

-

R. Sottil

Back Injury

H

Genoa

Current Lineup

Avg Changes: 2.44 per game

Pos

Name

Rating

PR

Forwards

77

M. E. Ellertsson

6.6
L

29

L. Colombo

6.3
M

Midfielders

20

S. Sabelli

6.3
H

32

M. Frendrup

6.5
L

4

Amorim

6.3
H

73

P. Masini

6.9
H

3

A. Martin

7.2
H

Defenders

27

A. Marcandalli

7
L

34

S. Otoa

6.9
H

13

N. Zatterstrom

6.2
H

Goalkeepers

1

N. Leali

7.3
H
Injuries/Absence

Key Players

T. Baldanzi

Illness

M

J. Ekhator

Foot Injury

M

Junior Messias

Muscle Injury

M

R. Malinovskyi

Inactive

M

L. Ostigard

Knock

L

Vitinha

Yellow Cards

M

Others

M. Cornet

Muscle Injury

H

C. Ekuban

Injury

H

J. Onana

Injury

H

Player Rotation Legend

L

Low

M

Medium

H

High

-

Unknown

  • Low: Regular starter with stable minutes
  • Medium: Plays regularly but role/minutes vary
  • High: Unpredictable role, often rotated or benched.

Overall Form

44%
Overall Form
53%
3
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
4

Rankings

Current Season

17
Serie A
15
37
Played
37
0.95
Points per Match
1.11

Quality

43%
Team Quality
52%
48%
Avg Opponent Quality
49%

Goals Performance

38%
Goals Performance
44%
0.9
Scored Goals
0.9
1.4
Conceded Goals
1.1
-0.5
Goals Difference
(Scored - Conceded)
-0.2
2.3
Total Goals
(Scored + Conceded)
2

Average Goals per Match

vs

Statistics

Average Statistics per Game

0.92
Expected Goals
1.17
9.8
Total Shots
11.5
2.8
Shots on Goal
3.3
6.4
Shots Inside Box
6.4
3.4
Shots Outside Box
5.1
39%
Possession
50%
73%
Passes %
79%

ODDS ANALYSIS

Odds Movement

All odds shown are the average odds from all bookmakers in our system.

Home

1.90

Draw

3.26

Away

4.47

1.69

Home

1.90

3.26

Draw

3.60

4.47

Away

5.31

Max

Home

1.90

Draw

3.60

Away

5.31

%

12%
10%
19%

Min

Home

1.69

Draw

3.26

Away

4.47

NOTE: Odds are updated every 3 hours.

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