Championship·
Regular Season - 42·04/12/2025·10:00
Millwall
Millwall
WWLWL
1-0
Finished
HT0-0
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
LWWDW
📍 The Den, London
Season statsChampionship
Millwall41matchesMiddlesbrough41matches

Every panel below reflects each team's matches in Championship.

Coverage varies by leaguetop-tier competitions have richer per-match data; lower divisions and smaller leagues track fewer metrics, so some panels may be sparse or missing entirely.
Pre-match snapshotevery value reflects each team's state going into kick-off — frozen before the match starts, not updated live.

Overall

Overallteam-strength snapshot
61%
Overall

Composite team strength — average of LTQ and Hype.

59%
1564
ELO

Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.

1551
57%
LTQ

Long-term quality across all competitions.

54%
65%
Hype

Short-term fixture buzz / excitement signal.

64%
1.83
Momentum

Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).

1.84

Match Outcome

Match Outcomeresults breakdown
4141
1.39
Points per Game

Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).

1.46
37%
Win Rate

Share of sampled matches won.

41%
29%
Draw Rate

Share of sampled matches that ended level.

22%
34%
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

37%
34%
Clean Sheet32%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

29%
32%
Failed to Score

Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).

24%

Goal Scoring

Goal Scoringattacking output
4141
0.98
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.49
68%
Scored > 0.572%

Share of matches where the team scored at least once.

76%
49%
Over 1.557%

Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.

66%
27%
Over 2.537%

Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.

46%
15%
Over 3.522%

Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.

29%
41%
BTTS46%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

51%
10%
BTTS & Win

Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.

17%
2%
Scored Both Halves13%

Share of matches with a goal in both the 1st and 2nd half.

24%

Defensive Solidity

Defensive Soliditygoals & shots conceded
4141
1.00
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.22
10.78
Avg Shots Conceded

Total shots faced per match — defensive pressure (> 17.5/match is heavy siege).

10.24
3.24
Avg SoT Conceded

Shots on target faced per match — quality of chances given up (> 5.5 is severe).

3.54
2.37
Avg Saves

Goalkeeper saves per match (> 4.5 means the keeper is doing heavy lifting).

2.34
73%
Save %70%

Share of opponent shots on target stopped by the keeper.

66%
34%
Clean Sheet32%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

29%

xG Trends

xG TrendsEWMA-smoothed performance
4141
1.02
EWMAxG For

Smoothed expected goals created per match — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.

1.16
1.29
EWMAxG Against

Smoothed expected goals conceded per match — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.

1.24
-0.27
EWMAxG Diff

Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.

-0.08
-0.02
EWMAFinishing Edge

Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.

0.12
0.10
EWMAxG per Shot

Average chance quality per attempt — 0.10 is mid, 0.15+ means the team only shoots from dangerous spots.

0.08

Shots Quality

Shots Qualityvolume & accuracy
4141
11.05
Avg Shots

Total shots per match — pure attacking volume (> 16.5/match is elite).

14.17
3.51
Avg Shots on Target

Shots on target per match — strikes the keeper had to handle (> 5.5/match is heavy).

4.59
7.88
Avg Shots in Box

Shots taken from inside the penalty area — proximity to goal (> 8.5/match means consistent box presence).

9.20
71%
Box Shot %68%

Share of shots taken from inside the box — chance-selection quality. Mid sits ~60%, elite > 75%.

65%
32%
On-Target %32%

Share of shots that hit the target — striking accuracy. Mid ~33%, elite > 40%.

32%
9%
Shot Conversion10%

Goals per shot taken — clinical efficiency. ~10% is league average, > 15% is elite finishing.

11%

Possession & Passing

Possession & Passingball control
4141
43%
Avg Possession

Share of match time with the ball. > 55% is dominant, < 40% is reactive.

55%
69%
Pass Accuracy

Share of passes completed — distribution quality. Mid sits ~80%, elite > 88%.

85%
316.05
Avg Passes

Total passes attempted per match — distribution volume. Top sides > 550, bottom sides < 400.

510.54
-0.11
EWMAPossession Trend

Smoothed possession differential — team minus opponent. ±0.1 is normal, ±0.2 is strong dominance.

0.10

HT / FT Patterns

HT / FT Patternshalf-time vs full-time outcomes
4141
24%10/41
Leading at HT29%

Share of matches the team led at halftime — fast-start signal.

34%14/41
44%18/41
Level at HT

Share of matches level at halftime — balanced or low-tempo openings.

37%15/41
32%13/41
Trailing at HT

Share of matches the team trailed at halftime — slow starts (lower is better).

29%12/41
54%22/41
HT/FT Same Outcome56%

Share of matches where the W/D/L state at halftime matched the full-time result — game-state stability.

59%24/41
60%6/10
Led at HT → Won66%

Of matches led at HT, share converted into a full-time win — closing strength.

71%10/14
23%3/13
Trailed at HT → Recovered24%

Of matches trailing at HT, share rescued to a draw or win — comeback resilience.

25%3/12

Goal Timing

Goal Timingwhen goals happen
events 41/4141/414141
11%
0-15'15%

Hot starts — share of the team's goals scored in the opening 15 minutes.

18%
14%
16-30'13%

Early control — share scored between the 16th and 30th minute.

13%
16%
31-45'18%

Pre-HT push — share scored in the run-up to halftime.

19%
18%
46-60'18%

Restart wave — share scored in the first 15 minutes after HT.

18%
14%
61-75'10%

Game-state shift — share scored between minutes 61 and 75.

6%
27%
76-90+'27%

Late-game finishers — share scored from the 76th minute onwards (incl. stoppage time).

26%

First-Goal Edge

First-Goal Edgewho strikes first
events 41/4141/414141
61%23/38
Scored First60%

Share of matches where the team opened the scoring — fast-start signal.

59%23/39
39%15/38
Conceded First

Share of matches where the team conceded the opening goal (lower is better).

41%16/39
61%14/23
Win when Scoring First63%

Of matches the team scored first, share converted into a win — closing strength after the opener.

65%15/23
7%1/15
Win when Conceding First10%

Of matches conceding first, share rescued into a win — comeback strength.

13%2/16
43'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Scored

Average minute of the team's first goal — earlier means faster starters.

34'
30'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Conceded

Average minute of the first goal conceded — later is better (defense holds longer).

27'

Late-Game Strength

Late-Game Strengthafter the 75th minute
events 41/4141/414141
29%12/41
Scored after 75'30%

Share of matches with a late goal scored by the team — late finishers signal.

32%13/41
29%12/41
Conceded after 75'

Share of matches the team conceded a late goal — late-game vulnerability (lower is better).

29%12/41
63%10/16
Lead Saved after 75'75%

Of matches leading at 75', share closed out for a win — closing strength.

87%13/15
38%6/16
Lead Lost after 75'

Of matches leading at 75', share dropped to a draw or loss — late-game collapse risk.

13%2/15
12%5/41
Any Goal in Stoppage Time

Share of matches with any goal in stoppage time (90+) — late-drama frequency.

7%3/41

Set Pieces

Set Piecespenalty / own-goal share
events 41/4141/414141
86%38/44
Open-Play Share88%

Of the team's scored goals, share from open play — non-set-piece scoring quality.

89%55/62
5%2/44
Penalty Share

Of the team's scored goals, share from penalty kicks — penalty dependency.

6%4/62
9%4/44
Opp Own-Goal Bonus

Of the team's scored goals, share that were opponent own-goals — pressure / fortune.

5%3/62
5%2/38
Penalty Conceded Share

Of conceded goals, share from opponent penalties — defensive discipline (lower is better).

0%0/49
0%0/38
Own-Goal Cost

Of conceded goals, share that were the team's own goals — pressure-induced errors (lower is better).

4%2/49

Corners

Cornersset-piece pressure
4141
4.90
Avg Corners For

Average corners won per match — attacking territorial pressure (> 5.5 is heavy).

5.00
5.37
Avg Corners Against

Average corners conceded per match — territorial pressure faced (lower is better).

4.98
48%
Corner Share49%

Share of total corners in the team's matches that went to the team — territorial dominance ratio.

50%
-0.88
EWMACorners Diff

Smoothed corner differential per match — long-term territorial advantage (±2 is strong).

-0.82
66%27/41
Match Corners > 8.565%

Share of matches with total corners > 8.5 (Over 8.5 line) — high-tempo encounter signal.

63%26/41
63%26/41
Match Corners > 9.559%

Share of matches with total corners > 9.5 (Over 9.5 line).

54%22/41
46%19/41
Match Corners > 10.545%

Share of matches with total corners > 10.5 (Over 10.5 line) — corner-heavy clashes only.

44%18/41

Cards & Discipline

Cards & Disciplineyellows, reds & fouls
events 41/4141/414141
1.73
Avg Yellow Cards

Yellow cards picked up per match — discipline signal (lower is better).

1.54
2%1/41
Red Card Match Rate

Share of matches with at least one red card to the team — sending-off risk.

5%2/41
12.66
Avg Fouls

Fouls committed per match — aggression / tactical-foul tendency (lower is calmer).

9.44
68%21/31
Match Cards > 3.568%

Share of matches with total card points (both teams, yellow=1 / red=2, 2Y→R counted as 2) > 3.5 — Over 3.5 line.

68%23/34
31/4134/41
35%11/31
Match Cards > 4.534%

Share of matches with total card points > 4.5 — Over 4.5 line.

32%11/34
31/4134/41
78%
Cards in 2nd Half

Share of card events that occur after halftime — late-discipline tendency.

59%

Venue Edge

Venue EdgeMillwall at home · Middlesbrough on the road
2020
1.55
PPG at Venue

Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.

1.25
45%9/20
Win Rate40%

Share of sampled matches won.

35%7/20
35%7/20
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

45%9/20
1.10
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.60
0.90
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.40
30%6/20
Clean Sheet28%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

25%5/20
40%8/20
BTTS50%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

60%12/20
30%6/20
Over 2.543%

Share of venue matches with total goals > 2.5.

55%11/20
1.13
EWMAAttack xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG created at venue — long-term attacking strength in this fixture's venue context.

1.25
0.82
EWMADefense xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG conceded at venue — defensive strength in this fixture's venue context (lower is better).

1.33