Championship·
Regular Season - 38·03/15/2025·11:00
Luton
Luton
WLWLD
0-0
Finished
HT0-0
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
WLWWL
📍 Kenilworth Road, Luton, Bedfordshire
Season statsChampionship
Luton37matchesMiddlesbrough37matches

Every panel below reflects each team's matches in Championship.

Coverage varies by leaguetop-tier competitions have richer per-match data; lower divisions and smaller leagues track fewer metrics, so some panels may be sparse or missing entirely.
Pre-match snapshotevery value reflects each team's state going into kick-off — frozen before the match starts, not updated live.

Overall

Overallteam-strength snapshot
47%
Overall

Composite team strength — average of LTQ and Hype.

52%
1349
ELO

Chess-style strength rating going into kick-off.

1498
39%
LTQ

Long-term quality across all competitions.

45%
55%
Hype

Short-term fixture buzz / excitement signal.

59%
2.25
Momentum

Recent goal-scoring trend (weighted goals signal).

2.23

Match Outcome

Match Outcomeresults breakdown
3737
0.92
Points per Game

Average points per match across the sampled games (max 3).

1.43
24%
Win Rate

Share of sampled matches won.

41%
19%
Draw Rate

Share of sampled matches that ended level.

22%
57%
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

38%
19%
Clean Sheet23%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

27%
35%
Failed to Score

Share of matches where the team didn't score (lower is better).

22%

Goal Scoring

Goal Scoringattacking output
3737
0.92
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.54
65%
Scored > 0.572%

Share of matches where the team scored at least once.

78%
70%
Over 1.569%

Share of matches with total goals > 1.5.

68%
49%
Over 2.549%

Share of matches with total goals > 2.5.

49%
22%
Over 3.527%

Share of matches with total goals > 3.5 — high-scoring affairs.

32%
51%
BTTS53%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

54%
11%
BTTS & Win

Share of matches won while both teams scored — strong attack with a defensive lapse.

16%
8%
Scored Both Halves18%

Share of matches with a goal in both the 1st and 2nd half.

27%

Defensive Solidity

Defensive Soliditygoals & shots conceded
3737
1.62
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.30
12.73
Avg Shots Conceded

Total shots faced per match — defensive pressure (> 17.5/match is heavy siege).

10.27
4.68
Avg SoT Conceded

Shots on target faced per match — quality of chances given up (> 5.5 is severe).

3.57
3.11
Avg Saves

Goalkeeper saves per match (> 4.5 means the keeper is doing heavy lifting).

2.30
66%
Save %65%

Share of opponent shots on target stopped by the keeper.

64%
19%
Clean Sheet23%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

27%

xG Trends

xG TrendsEWMA-smoothed performance
3737
0.91
EWMAxG For

Smoothed expected goals created per match — top attacks hit > 2.5/match, mid-table sits around 1.4.

1.17
1.42
EWMAxG Against

Smoothed expected goals conceded per match — elite defenses < 1.0, struggling sides > 2.0.

1.22
-0.50
EWMAxG Diff

Net xG: attack minus defense. ±1 is dominant/poor; ±2 is title-contender or crisis-level.

-0.05
-0.15
EWMAFinishing Edge

Goals scored minus xG. +0.3 is clinical, −0.3 is wasteful; ±1 is statistical outlier.

0.21
0.09
EWMAxG per Shot

Average chance quality per attempt — 0.10 is mid, 0.15+ means the team only shoots from dangerous spots.

0.09

Shots Quality

Shots Qualityvolume & accuracy
3737
10.86
Avg Shots

Total shots per match — pure attacking volume (> 16.5/match is elite).

14.08
3.35
Avg Shots on Target

Shots on target per match — strikes the keeper had to handle (> 5.5/match is heavy).

4.84
8.11
Avg Shots in Box

Shots taken from inside the penalty area — proximity to goal (> 8.5/match means consistent box presence).

9.41
75%
Box Shot %71%

Share of shots taken from inside the box — chance-selection quality. Mid sits ~60%, elite > 75%.

67%
31%
On-Target %33%

Share of shots that hit the target — striking accuracy. Mid ~33%, elite > 40%.

34%
8%
Shot Conversion10%

Goals per shot taken — clinical efficiency. ~10% is league average, > 15% is elite finishing.

11%

Possession & Passing

Possession & Passingball control
3737
45%
Avg Possession

Share of match time with the ball. > 55% is dominant, < 40% is reactive.

55%
73%
Pass Accuracy

Share of passes completed — distribution quality. Mid sits ~80%, elite > 88%.

85%
335.16
Avg Passes

Total passes attempted per match — distribution volume. Top sides > 550, bottom sides < 400.

512.05
-0.11
EWMAPossession Trend

Smoothed possession differential — team minus opponent. ±0.1 is normal, ±0.2 is strong dominance.

0.09

HT / FT Patterns

HT / FT Patternshalf-time vs full-time outcomes
3737
27%10/37
Leading at HT31%

Share of matches the team led at halftime — fast-start signal.

35%13/37
41%15/37
Level at HT

Share of matches level at halftime — balanced or low-tempo openings.

38%14/37
32%12/37
Trailing at HT

Share of matches the team trailed at halftime — slow starts (lower is better).

27%10/37
49%18/37
HT/FT Same Outcome53%

Share of matches where the W/D/L state at halftime matched the full-time result — game-state stability.

57%21/37
40%4/10
Led at HT → Won55%

Of matches led at HT, share converted into a full-time win — closing strength.

69%9/13
8%1/12
Trailed at HT → Recovered14%

Of matches trailing at HT, share rescued to a draw or win — comeback resilience.

20%2/10

Goal Timing

Goal Timingwhen goals happen
events 37/3737/373737
18%
0-15'17%

Hot starts — share of the team's goals scored in the opening 15 minutes.

16%
18%
16-30'16%

Early control — share scored between the 16th and 30th minute.

14%
15%
31-45'18%

Pre-HT push — share scored in the run-up to halftime.

21%
21%
46-60'19%

Restart wave — share scored in the first 15 minutes after HT.

17%
6%
61-75'6%

Game-state shift — share scored between minutes 61 and 75.

7%
24%
76-90+'25%

Late-game finishers — share scored from the 76th minute onwards (incl. stoppage time).

26%

First-Goal Edge

First-Goal Edgewho strikes first
events 37/3737/373737
40%14/35
Scored First51%

Share of matches where the team opened the scoring — fast-start signal.

61%22/36
60%21/35
Conceded First

Share of matches where the team conceded the opening goal (lower is better).

39%14/36
36%5/14
Win when Scoring First50%

Of matches the team scored first, share converted into a win — closing strength after the opener.

64%14/22
19%4/21
Win when Conceding First13%

Of matches conceding first, share rescued into a win — comeback strength.

7%1/14
24'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Scored

Average minute of the team's first goal — earlier means faster starters.

35'
35'
Avg Min. 1st Goal Conceded

Average minute of the first goal conceded — later is better (defense holds longer).

28'

Late-Game Strength

Late-Game Strengthafter the 75th minute
events 37/3737/373737
16%6/37
Scored after 75'24%

Share of matches with a late goal scored by the team — late finishers signal.

32%12/37
24%9/37
Conceded after 75'

Share of matches the team conceded a late goal — late-game vulnerability (lower is better).

32%12/37
83%5/6
Lead Saved after 75'85%

Of matches leading at 75', share closed out for a win — closing strength.

86%12/14
17%1/6
Lead Lost after 75'

Of matches leading at 75', share dropped to a draw or loss — late-game collapse risk.

14%2/14
16%6/37
Any Goal in Stoppage Time

Share of matches with any goal in stoppage time (90+) — late-drama frequency.

8%3/37

Set Pieces

Set Piecespenalty / own-goal share
events 37/3737/373737
91%31/34
Open-Play Share90%

Of the team's scored goals, share from open play — non-set-piece scoring quality.

88%51/58
6%2/34
Penalty Share

Of the team's scored goals, share from penalty kicks — penalty dependency.

7%4/58
3%1/34
Opp Own-Goal Bonus

Of the team's scored goals, share that were opponent own-goals — pressure / fortune.

5%3/58
3%2/60
Penalty Conceded Share

Of conceded goals, share from opponent penalties — defensive discipline (lower is better).

0%0/47
2%1/60
Own-Goal Cost

Of conceded goals, share that were the team's own goals — pressure-induced errors (lower is better).

4%2/47

Corners

Cornersset-piece pressure
3737
5.73
Avg Corners For

Average corners won per match — attacking territorial pressure (> 5.5 is heavy).

5.03
4.89
Avg Corners Against

Average corners conceded per match — territorial pressure faced (lower is better).

4.92
54%
Corner Share52%

Share of total corners in the team's matches that went to the team — territorial dominance ratio.

51%
0.05
EWMACorners Diff

Smoothed corner differential per match — long-term territorial advantage (±2 is strong).

-0.79
78%29/37
Match Corners > 8.572%

Share of matches with total corners > 8.5 (Over 8.5 line) — high-tempo encounter signal.

65%24/37
62%23/37
Match Corners > 9.558%

Share of matches with total corners > 9.5 (Over 9.5 line).

54%20/37
49%18/37
Match Corners > 10.546%

Share of matches with total corners > 10.5 (Over 10.5 line) — corner-heavy clashes only.

43%16/37

Cards & Discipline

Cards & Disciplineyellows, reds & fouls
events 37/3737/373737
2.08
Avg Yellow Cards

Yellow cards picked up per match — discipline signal (lower is better).

1.59
16%6/37
Red Card Match Rate

Share of matches with at least one red card to the team — sending-off risk.

5%2/37
12.41
Avg Fouls

Fouls committed per match — aggression / tactical-foul tendency (lower is calmer).

9.43
60%21/35
Match Cards > 3.566%

Share of matches with total card points (both teams, yellow=1 / red=2, 2Y→R counted as 2) > 3.5 — Over 3.5 line.

72%23/32
35/3732/37
54%19/35
Match Cards > 4.547%

Share of matches with total card points > 4.5 — Over 4.5 line.

41%13/32
35/3732/37
63%
Cards in 2nd Half

Share of card events that occur after halftime — late-discipline tendency.

57%

Venue Edge

Venue EdgeLuton at home · Middlesbrough on the road
1818
1.44
PPG at Venue

Points per match at the venue — home team at home, away team away.

1.17
39%7/18
Win Rate36%

Share of sampled matches won.

33%6/18
33%6/18
Loss Rate

Share of sampled matches lost (lower is better).

50%9/18
1.11
Avg Goals Scored

Goals scored per match across the sampled games.

1.67
1.06
Avg Goals Conceded

Goals conceded per match (lower is better).

1.56
28%5/18
Clean Sheet22%

Share of matches with no goals conceded.

17%3/18
56%10/18
BTTS61%

Share of matches where both teams scored.

67%12/18
44%8/18
Over 2.553%

Share of venue matches with total goals > 2.5.

61%11/18
1.25
EWMAAttack xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG created at venue — long-term attacking strength in this fixture's venue context.

1.49
0.88
EWMADefense xG (EWMA)

Smoothed xG conceded at venue — defensive strength in this fixture's venue context (lower is better).

1.29