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Home Favored
Jun 7, 2026, 08:01 AM
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The Copa Sul-Sudeste trophy is on the line as Chapecoense-sc attempts to climb a mountain after a devastating 3-0 first-leg defeat to their regional rivals. Avai arrives at the Arena Condá with one hand on the silverware, knowing a disciplined performance will secure their first title in this competition.
Home Motivation
High
Chapecoense-sc has maximum motivation as they are playing the second leg of a domestic cup final at home, despite the difficult aggregate score.
Away Motivation
High
Avai is highly motivated to secure their first-ever Copa Sul-Sudeste title and a direct spot in the 2027 Copa do Brasil third round.
Market Picks
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The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
1.33
Goals scored per game
All comps (EWMA)
2.09
Avai is significantly more clinical in recent form compared to the league average of 2.68 total goals per match
1.21
Goals conceded per game
All comps (EWMA)
0.96
Avai maintains a tighter defensive record on a recent-form basis, conceding fewer than one goal per game
80%
Over 2.5 goals %
Home/Away split
60%
Matches at the Arena Condá frequently turn into high-scoring affairs, well above the league baseline of 56%
80%
BTTS %
Home/Away split
70%
Both sides consistently score and concede when playing at their respective home/away venues
30%
Win rate %
Last 5 matches
40%
Avai has been the more successful side across their last 10 matches in all competitions
1503
Elo rating
Season avg
1473
Despite recent results, Chapecoense-sc maintains a slightly higher raw Elo rating
Form & Streaks
Chapecoense-sc has seen three or more goals in six of their last seven home matches
Avai has won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings including the most recent 3-0 victory
Chapecoense-sc is struggling for consistency with 5 losses in their last 10 matches across all competitions
Tactical Overview
Chapecoense-sc must overturn a three-goal deficit, a task made harder by the absence of defensive pillars like Rafael Thyere and Doma. While the hosts have a solid home win rate in their last 10 venue-specific matches (4W, 2D, 4L), their overall form is concerning with five losses in their last 10 across all competitions. Avai is trending at 2.09 goals scored per game in recent form, significantly outperforming the hosts' 1.33. The visitors' 3-0 win on June 3rd showcased a clinical edge that Chapecoense-sc has struggled to match recently. With Daniel Penha and Jean Lucas facilitating transitions, Avai is well-positioned to exploit the gaps left by a Chapecoense-sc side forced to attack from the opening whistle. The hosts will look to Camilo and Y. Bolasie to spark a miracle, but their recent-form average of 1.21 goals conceded per game suggests they may struggle to keep the clean sheet necessary for a comeback.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
Chapecoense-sc will rely on the defensive strength of João Paulo and Bruno Leonardo. In midfield, Camilo is expected to provide creativity and control. Upfront, the team will look to Yannick Bolasie for attacking impetus.
Absences
Rafael Thyere
hamstring injury
Victor Caetano
calf injury
Doma
hamstring injury
Garcez
thigh problems
Robert Santos
cruciate ligament tear
Kauan
calf injury
Home
Key Players
Chapecoense-sc will rely on the defensive strength of João Paulo and Bruno Leonardo. In midfield, Camilo is expected to provide creativity and control. Upfront, the team will look to Yannick Bolasie for attacking impetus.
Absences
Rafael Thyere
hamstring injury
Victor Caetano
calf injury
Doma
hamstring injury
Garcez
thigh problems
Robert Santos
cruciate ligament tear
Kauan
calf injury
Away
Key Players
For Avai, goalkeeper Léo Aragão will be crucial in maintaining a strong defense. The midfield will likely be anchored by Luiz Henrique and Zé Ricardo, who are vital for ball distribution and breaking up play. In attack, Daniel Penha is expected to lead the line.
Absences
Absence information is not yet available. Check back closer to kickoff for confirmed lineups.
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Referee Profile
André Luiz Skettino Policarpo Bento
23 matches officiated · 2026/27
André Luiz Skettino Policarpo Bento has officiated 23 games across all competitions this season and is noted for an average strictness profile. This moderate approach may allow for a more physical contest in the early stages, but the high stakes of a final where one team faces a 3-0 deficit often leads to a higher volume of cards in the second half.
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