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Away Favored
May 24, 2026, 08:03 AM
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Parma host Sassuolo in the final Serie A fixture, with both sides having secured their top-flight status. While the stakes are low in terms of survival, Sassuolo still eyes a top-half finish, adding a sliver of motivation to this end-of-season clash.
Home Motivation
Low
Parma has already secured their Serie A status and is eight points clear of the relegation zone. Their tournament motivation is low as they have nothing significant left to play for.
Away Motivation
Low
Sassuolo has secured their Serie A status and is 15 points clear of the relegation zone. While they have a slim chance of finishing in the top half, the overall stakes are low.
Market Picks
Portal Pulse
The Evidence
Betting Edge
Key Metrics
Home
Metric
Away
0.72
xG created per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.28
Sassuolo's attacking output, trending at 1.28 xG per game on a recent-form basis, is significantly higher than Parma's 0.72 xG per game. This indicates Sassuolo creates more dangerous chances.
0.77
Goals scored per game
All comps (EWMA)
1.30
Sassuolo averages 1.30 goals per game in recent form, nearly double Parma's 0.77 goals per game. This suggests Sassuolo is more clinical in front of goal.
2.56
Shots on target per game
All comps (EWMA)
3.96
Sassuolo puts 3.96 shots on target per game in recent form, compared to Parma's 2.56. This directly correlates with their higher goal-scoring potential.
-0.98
xG difference
All comps (EWMA)
-0.22
Sassuolo's recent-form xG difference of -0.22 is much better than Parma's -0.98, indicating they are closer to breaking even in terms of chance creation vs. concession.
20%
Over 2.5 %
Serie A ONLY (last 10 matches)
60%
Sassuolo's last 10 Serie A matches have gone Over 2.5 goals 60% of the time, compared to Parma's 20%. This points to Sassuolo being involved in higher-scoring games.
1.0
PPG (season venue)
SEASON RECORD AT VENUE
1.11
Sassuolo has a slightly better points per game average away from home this season (1.11 PPG) than Parma does at home (1.0 PPG), indicating they perform marginally better on the road than Parma does at home.
Form & Streaks
Parma has won just 3 of their last 10 Serie A home matches (3W,3D,4L in 10), indicating inconsistent form at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Sassuolo has failed to win any of their last 5 away Serie A matches (2W,3D,5L in 10 overall in last 10 away league games), with their last away victory dating back further than this sample.
In their last 10 matches across all competitions, Parma has only managed 2 wins (2W,3D,5L in 10), highlighting their recent struggles.
Tactical Overview
Parma enter this match reeling from a difficult spell, with their manager Carlos Cuesta reportedly dealing with a significant injury crisis impacting nearly half the first-team squad. This has likely contributed to their poor recent form, including defeats to AS Roma (2-3), Inter (0-2), and Como (0-1). Their recent-form xG created per game is a paltry 0.72, well below the league average of 2.50, and they concede 1.71 xG per game, indicating defensive struggles. Key players like Alessandro Circati and Zion Suzuki will be tested. In contrast, Sassuolo, under Fabio Grosso, has seen a boost with Andrea Pinamonti returning to lead the line alongside Armand Laurienté and Domenico Berardi, forming a potent attacking trio. Their recent-form xG created per game stands at a more respectable 1.28, and they average 1.30 goals scored per game. While Sassuolo's away form in Serie A has been concerning, with 5 losses and 3 draws in their last 10, their home wins over AC Milan and Como show they can perform when motivated. The last H2H ended in a 1-1 draw, but Parma holds a 2-win advantage in their last five meetings.
Match Context
Lineup Updates
Based on reports
Key Players
Parma lean on Emanuele Valeri and Mandela Keita in midfield, Alessandro Circati at the back, with Zion Suzuki in goal.
Absences
A. Bernabe
Muscle Injury
B. Cremaschi
Knee Injury
E. Delprato
Injury
N. Elphege
Thigh Injury
M. Frigan
Knee Injury
J. Ondrejka
Leg Injury
G. Oristanio
Knee Injury
G. Strefezza
Ankle Injury
Home
Key Players
Parma lean on Emanuele Valeri and Mandela Keita in midfield, Alessandro Circati at the back, with Zion Suzuki in goal.
Absences
A. Bernabe
Muscle Injury
B. Cremaschi
Knee Injury
E. Delprato
Injury
N. Elphege
Thigh Injury
M. Frigan
Knee Injury
J. Ondrejka
Leg Injury
G. Oristanio
Knee Injury
G. Strefezza
Ankle Injury
Away
Key Players
Sassuolo lean on Armand Laurienté in attack, Kristian Thorstvedt and Ismael Koné in midfield, with Ulisses Garcia at the back.
Absences
D. Bakola
Knee Injury
D. Boloca
Muscle Injury
F. Cande
Knee Injury
E. Pieragnolo
Knee Injury
F. Romagna
Inactive
A. Vranckx
Inactive
S. Walukiewicz
Leg Injury
J. Idzes
Foot Injury
T. Muharemovic
Injury
Lineup info is never 100% confirmed until matchday. Additional players may be unavailable.
Referee Profile
N. Turrini
17 matches officiated · 2025/26
Cards/G
3.3
▼
avg 3.9
Fouls/G
25.2
▼
avg 25.4
Referee N. Turrini averages 3.3 cards per game across 17 games this season, which is approximately 15% below the league average of 3.9 cards. This suggests a slightly lenient approach from Turrini. Given both teams have secured their league status and might play with less intensity, this lenient referee could lead to a lower-than-average card count for this match, potentially influencing Under card markets.
Key Note
Runs 15% below league average on cards.
Weather & Field
Good Conditions
31C
Temperature
30.8°C
Rain Chance
0%
Wind
6 km/h
Humidity
34%
The weather conditions for this match feature a warm 30.8°C and light wind at 6 km/h. With an alert level of 'no_impact', these conditions are unlikely to significantly affect the flow of the game or tactical approaches of either team. Betting markets for goals, corners, or cards should not be swayed by the weather.
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